● Live race intelligence · code CD

Churchill Downs

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
9
on the card
Feature
R2
Optional Claiming $80,000 · $134K
First post
1:00 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
30%
#3 Aegis

● Track conditions today

Churchill Downs — today's signals

Surface read

±0.87s MODERATE

Surface moves a moderate amount day to day — we apply the daily variant so figures stay comparable across the meet.

day-to-day swing · 122 race-days sampled

Weather

52° Mostly Sunny

Clean conditions — surface should run true to the listed condition. No weather adjustment to the model read.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST

Best post #3 (12%) · Rail helps

Even by post — inside 11% / outside 8%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 20,344 starts.

avg 10%11%110%212%310%410%512%612%711%88%98%107%117%123%132%14

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R7 · 7 Furlongs Dirt

#3 Aegis

Ortiz Irad Jr · Sharp Joe

Model win %
30%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
5-2

R6 · 6 Furlongs Dirt

#4 Lockdownyourtown

Torres Cristian A · Diodoro Robertino

Model win %
30%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
8-5

R4 · 6 Furlongs Dirt

#9 Spill The Sugar

Ortiz Jose L · Larose Kinnon

Model win %
30%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. McPeek Kenneth G2 top picks
  2. Asmussen Steven M2 top picks
  3. Sharp Joe2 top picks
  4. Maker Michael J2 top picks
  5. Sweezey J Kent1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Ortiz Irad Jr5 top picks
  2. Gaffalione Tyler3 top picks
  3. Ortiz Jose L2 top picks
  4. Esquivel Emmanuel1 top picks
  5. Asmussen Keith J1 top picks

Multi-race wagers

Today's sequences, leg by leg.

Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg, or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all. This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.

Pick 5Races 1–5
R1#9 DiscothequeTop pick
R2#2 ChambersvilleTop pick
R3#8 Private Show · #3 IngleboroughClose: top 2
R4#9 Spill The SugarTop pick
R5#4 GreystoneTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5
R2#2 ChambersvilleTop pick
R3#8 Private Show · #3 IngleboroughClose: top 2
R4#9 Spill The SugarTop pick
R5#4 GreystoneTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7
R3#8 Private Show · #3 IngleboroughClose: top 2
R4#9 Spill The SugarTop pick
R5#4 GreystoneTop pick
R6#4 LockdownyourtownTop pick
R7#3 AegisTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 5–9
R5#4 GreystoneTop pick
R6#4 LockdownyourtownTop pick
R7#3 AegisTop pick
R8#3 Sprint Out Pass · #1 InitializeClose: top 2
R9#15 Givemethebeat · #3 Mo BiscuitClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 6–9
R6#4 LockdownyourtownTop pick
R7#3 AegisTop pick
R8#3 Sprint Out Pass · #1 InitializeClose: top 2
R9#15 Givemethebeat · #3 Mo BiscuitClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

R01

7 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $62,500

Purse $78,000 · 9 entered · Post 1:00 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#9 Discotheque

Ortiz Irad Jr / Sweezey J Kent

M/L

9-5

Model 28% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R02

1 3/8 Miles Turf · Optional Claiming $80,000

Purse $134,000 · 7 entered · Post 1:29 PM ET

CLOSERS' RACE

Model's top pick

#2 Chambersville

Ortiz Irad Jr / McPeek Kenneth G

M/L

9-5

Model 29% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R03

1 1/16 Miles Dirt · Maiden Claiming $50,000

Purse $67,000 · 9 entered · Post 1:58 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#8 Private Show

Asmussen Keith J / Asmussen Steven M

M/L

15-1

Model 11% · favourite is #4

VIEW →
R04

6 Furlongs Dirt · Maiden Claiming $30,000

Purse $57,000 · 11 entered · Post 2:27 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#9 Spill The Sugar

Ortiz Jose L / Larose Kinnon

M/L

2-1

Model 30% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R05

1 3/8 Miles Turf · Allowance · $127,000 purse

Purse $127,000 · 8 entered · Post 2:57 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#4 Greystone

Gaffalione Tyler / Maker Michael J

M/L

2-1

Model 26% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R06

6 Furlongs Dirt · State-Bred Allowance · $62,000 purse

Purse $62,000 · 7 entered · Post 3:26 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#4 Lockdownyourtown

Torres Cristian A / Diodoro Robertino

M/L

8-5

Model 30% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R07

7 Furlongs Dirt · Maiden Special Weight

Purse $120,000 · 9 entered · Post 3:55 PM ET

TACTICAL / HONEST

Model's top pick

#3 Aegis

Ortiz Irad Jr / Sharp Joe

M/L

5-2

Model 30% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R08

5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · Optional Claiming $80,000

Purse $134,000 · 15 entered · Post 4:25 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#3 Sprint Out Pass

Mojica O / Martinez Kelli

M/L

30-1

Model 6% · favourite is #1

VIEW →
R09

6 Furlongs Dirt · Maiden Claiming $20,000

Purse $48,000 · 15 entered · Post 4:55 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#15 Givemethebeat

Gaffalione Tyler / Hancock John A

M/L

8-1

Model 11% · favourite is #8

VIEW →
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