1SisyphusR. Latchman · A. KingLatchman · KingA76 84 84▼▼-96-5Fair 5-228%
▼▼ Big drop -976 84 84A3Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 76 84 84
Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Adam King 21% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)12/14 board hereBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 84 next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 79d back)RECORD 7 wins, 12 on the board from 14 starts hereRECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 1 here: 38 wins, 84 top-3 in 161 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CT 7f D OC 10k 3rd/10 -4¾L 76 3.4-1 b L Angld in-upper;willing 9/18 CT 1 1/16 D OC 10k 2nd/5 84 0.8-1 b L Solo pace;game;nailed 8/21 CT 1 1/16 D OC 10k Won/7 84 0.8-1 b L Controlled tempo;drivn 2UniwinnerM. Burnham · C. NamboBurnham · NamboB75 84 68▲+4↕8-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +475 84 68 ↕BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–84 · Last 3 figs 75 84 68
Also today · Jockey R8: Just For The Money 5-1 · Trainer R8: Dither 20-1, R8: Just For The Money 5-1Was running in optional claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. Finished 4th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at DEL, beaten 6 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Apr 11; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D OC 12k 4th/6 -6L 75 52-1 b L Chased ins;float 6p1/4 10/1 DEL 6f D Clm 6k n1y 3rd/8 by nk 84 12-1 b L Rushed inside;set pace 9/9 DEL 5½f D Clm 5k n2y 6th/7 -5¾L 68 14-1 b L Broke slowly; no bid 3Dance For Green★J. Barbosa · D. WaltersBarbosa · WaltersA80 59 69▲▲+11↕@trip 805-2Fair 3-124%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best80 59 69 ↕@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 801Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 59 69
★ Best at the trip 80Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer David L Walters 31% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)WON LAST6/10 board hereLast start was a win, in a 10-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT at 2.7-1. 5 wins from 10 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d agoRECORD 5 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 3 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 47 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 CT 6½f D Clm 5k b Won/10 80 2.7-1 b L Vied3w3/8;kicked away 8/1 CT 6½f D OC 10k 8th/8 -6½L 59 7.2-1 b L Urged4w3/8;faltered 6/26 CT 6½f D OC 10k 4th/7 -4¾L 69 14-1 b L Saved ground;no kick 4Improbable Journey▼▼A. Bocachica · C. McKeeBocachica · McKeeB71 60 62▲▲+11@trip 7610-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +1171 60 62@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 60 62
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Abnel J Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Cynthia E McKee 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R3: Graceful Cat 6-1, R8: Uncle Chinito 7-2 · Trainer R3: Graceful Cat 6-1, R3: Ekati Indian 15-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2, R6: My Max 5-2★ FASTEST WORKGoes 6½ furlongs after running 4½ furlongs last time. Moves up from $5,000 claiming to optional claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 8; 1 work in 30dRECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 14 starts hereRECORD Abnel J Bocachica from post 4 here: 83 wins, 203 top-3 in 367 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 CT 4½f D Clm 5k b 3rd/8 -5L 71 3.1-1 b L Press ins1/4;willingly 6/13 CT 7f D Clm 4k n2xc 7th/8 -1L 60 5.2-1 b L Bmp/jostled1/8;g-way 6/5 CT 4½f D Clm 5k b 6th/7 -9½L 62 5.9-1 b L Slow st;3w1/4;empty 5Jaker▼C. Rodriguez · R. RangelRodriguez · RangelB64 60 67►≡@trip 6315-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady64 60 67 ≡@trip 63B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 60–67 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 60 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Carlos J Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Ricardo Rangel 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)★ FASTEST WORKA 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 83 par. The Oct 9 work, 4F in :48.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 9 (4F in :48.60), 1 work in 30dRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CT 7f D Clm 15k n2x 6th/9 -2½L 64 77-1 b L Prompted3w;gave way 9/25 CT 6½f D Alw n2x 6th/6 -9L 60 38-1 b L Off pace4w; no threat 9/17 CT 7f D Alw n1x 5th/9 -4L 67 71-1 b L Vied inside1st;faded 6It's Sizzling TimeM. Santaella · R. BrownSantaella · BrownA75 75 71►≡7-2Fair 4-120%
► Steady75 75 71 ≡A2Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–75 · Last 3 figs 75 75 71
Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 11-for-88 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 12-for-70 on dirt this meet (17%)2/4 board hereNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 75 against a 83 par. 4th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 110d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Moises Santaella from post 6 here: 17 wins, 41 top-3 in 83 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CT 7f D OC 10k 4th/10 -3½L 75 8.4-1 b L Rail mv1/4;lf-ld;flat 9/12 CT 7f D Clm 4k n2x Won/9 75 0.9-1 b L 3w1/4;left-ld;clr driv 8/6 CT 1 1/16 D Clm 5k bc 6th/7 -1½L 71 3.3-1 b L Vied ins3/8;faded str 7Larz▼LSR. Wilson · R. RangelWilson · RangelC47 66 62▼▼-21↕20-1Fair 15-17%
▼▼ Big drop -2147 66 62 ↕C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83LSCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–77 · Last 3 figs 47 66 62
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Rayan Wilson 30% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Ricardo Rangel 25% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRayan Wilson takes over from Agustin Martinez in the saddle. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)TROUBLED TRIP Lunged; drift1st; falter last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CT 7f D OC 10k 10th/10 -13L 47 73-1 b L Lunged;drift1st;falter 8/22 CT 7f D OC 10k 5th/6 -8L 66 20-1 b L Vie2w;yield1/4;weaken 8/13 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x 6th/6 -6½L 62 4.4-1 b L Press4w1/4;no impact
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CHARLES TOWN · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 76.44
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Dance For Green (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 80 · 59 · 69. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 It's Sizzling Time at 7-2. Use #1 Sisyphus in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 SISYPHUS (6-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #1 SISYPHUS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (33.1% to their 35.7%).
- #3 DANCE FOR GREEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.8% to their 22.4%).
- #6 IT'S SIZZLING TIME — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 LARZ (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Uniwinner; pressure from #4 Improbable Journey, #7 Larz; the shape helps #6 It's Sizzling Time; and works against #2 Uniwinner, #4 Improbable Journey, #7 Larz.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EARLY NO CARRYOVER PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5) / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta