1Powered By LoveA. Rios-Conde Jr. · M. ShanleyRios-Conde Jr. · ShanleyB66 79 75▼▼-109-2Fair 8-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1066 79 75BCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 66 79 75
Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Shanley 22% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK10/17 board hereA step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, optional claiming today. New trainer: Kevin J Joy had it last time, Mark Shanley now.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on Feb 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 3 wins, 10 on the board from 17 starts hereRECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde from post 1 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 20 rides · 4% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CT 6½f D Clm 5k bc 5th/8 66 1.0-1 L Aggressive pace;faded 9/26 CT 6½f D Clm 15k n3x Won/9 79 4.2-1 L Wicked pace;drift;driv 8/14 CT 7f D Clm 15k n2x Won/6 75 2.5-1 L Dictated terms;driving 2Uncle Chinito▲A. Bocachica · J. ReynoldsBocachica · ReynoldsA74 74 80►@trip 857-2Fair 5-117%
► Steady74 74 80@trip 85A▲ Lone speed on early pace3Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 74 80
▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey Abnel J Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Joan A Reynolds 30% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hotCLASS DROP8/13 board hereFinished 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at CT, beaten ½ length. Drops from optional claiming to optional claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Feb 6; 0 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 13 starts hereRECORD Abnel J Bocachica from post 2 here: 92 wins, 195 top-3 in 345 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/17 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x 3rd/8 -½L 74 2.0-1 L Vied3w1/4;stayed on 8/27 CT 4½f D OC 25k b 3rd/8 74 3.1-1 L Veerd out;rush;stayed 7/30 CT 4½f D OC 10k Won/7 by ½ 80 0.9-1 L Bore out st;held on 3Dither▼J. Davis · C. NamboDavis · NamboC57 48 64▼-320-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -357 48 64C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 57 48 64
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 6-for-60 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Bull Rider 8-1, R4: Monkey Wrench 20-1 · Trainer R1: Uniwinner 8-1, this race: Just For The Money 5-160D LAYOFFShortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6 furlongs. A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/27 DEL 6f D Clm 5k b 6th/7 -1½L 57 64-1 b L Vied between; weakened 8/14 DEL 5½f D Clm 5k b 6th/6 -9L 48 14-1 b L Sent;rail;gave way 5/2 PRX 5½f D Clm 5k n1y 11th/11 -10L 64 19-1 b L Brief speed; gave way 4Discreet Devil▼LSJ. Jorge · J. RodriguezJorge · RodriguezC68 63 71►≡@trip 6920-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady68 63 71 ≡@trip 69C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82LSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 63 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
★ FASTEST WORKBest recent figure is 71, well under the 82 par for this level. 0 for 13 at today's distance.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 20 (3F in :36.60), 0 works in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Julio Jorge from post 4 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 DEL 5f D Clm 12k 7th/8 -5½L 68 34-1 b L Stalked inside; faded 9/25 MED 5f T Clm 12k 4th/8 -2¾L 63 42-1 b L Chased inside; evenly 9/5 DEL 5f D OC 25k 6th/9 -3½L 71 78-1 b L Checked after start 5Hey BootsR. Latchman · M. Jones Jr.Latchman · Jones Jr.A65 76 74▲+4↕@trip 854-1Fair 5-117%
▲ Up +465 76 74 ↕@trip 85A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–76 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 76 74
Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Sisyphus 6-5, R7: Theycallhimgoldie 8-1 · Trainer R7: Fiber Proof 12-1, this race: Cold As Hell 10-1★ FASTEST WORK11/14 board here14 wins from 36 starts at this distance. Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.60 on Jun 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 6 wins, 11 on the board from 14 starts hereRECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 5 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 125 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/21 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x 5th/5 -4L 65 3.4-1 b L Hop st;4w;left-ld;weak 9/17 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x 2nd/8 -1L 76 4.0-1 b L Angld out;lf-ld;rally 8/13 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x Won/6 74 2.5-1 b L Pace;left lead;all-out 6Just For the MoneyM. Burnham · C. NamboBurnham · NamboB74 76 83►5-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady74 76 83BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 74 76 83
Figures have slipped: 83, 76, 74 over its last three. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D OC 12k 5th/6 -4L 74 12-1 b L Press pace 4p; yielded 9/30 DEL 5½f D OC 10k 6th/7 -5½L 76 16-1 b L Some run too late 6wd 9/11 DEL 6f D OC 12k 4th/8 -1L 83 4.9-1 b L Altered course; game 7Williston WarriorJ. Raspaldo · T. ShanleyRaspaldo · ShanleyC56 69 51▼▼-10↕15-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -1056 69 51 ↕CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–78 · Last 3 figs 56 69 51
Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Timothy Shanley 22% career 8-for-78 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R2: Musical Entourage 6-1, R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1, R6: My Max 5-2 · Trainer R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now. Carries 112 pounds, 4 less than last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d agoRECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 7 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 22 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CT 7f D Clm 5k b 5th/7 -4L 56 8.2-1 b L Vied3w;left-ld;weakend 9/26 CT 6½f D Clm 5k b 6th/10 -5L 69 14-1 b L Chased ins1/4;empty 9/17 CT 7f D Alw n1x 9th/9 -10L 51 8.2-1 b L Chase ins3/8;faltered 8Sutherland▲A. Bocachica · S. MeyersBocachica · MeyersA87 74 73▲▲+153-1Fair 7-221%
▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best87 74 73A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 821Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 74 73
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Shane Meyers 33% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R4: Salty Lime 5-1, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1 · Trainer R4: Salty Lime 5-1CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKShane Meyers takes over the training from McLean Robertson. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 85 for the next best.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Aug 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 8 here: 45 wins, 97 top-3 in 193 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 DEL 6f D Clm 6k n1yc 2nd/8 by hd 87 3.1-1 b L Pressed; ran on late 9/12 CBY 6f D OC 12k n1x 5th/6 -7½L 74 10-1 b L Outside;3p;no bid 6/14 CBY 1m T OC 20k n2x 5th/6 -4½L 73 8.7-1 b L Bmp brk;svd gnd;wkn 9Cold As HellJ. Acosta · M. Jones Jr.Acosta · Jones Jr.B63 69 71▼-5≡@trip 8210-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -563 69 71 ≡@trip 82BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 69 71
Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R6: Screaminvengeance 9-2 · Trainer R7: Fiber Proof 12-1, this race: Hey Boots 4-1Jky 8/45 from post 9Trending the wrong way on speed, 71 to 69 to 63. 2nd of 15 at 4F on Aug 8, in :47.20.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d agoRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD J D Acosta from post 9 here: 8 wins, 19 top-3 in 45 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 CT 4½f D Clm 5k b 4th/8 -5½L 63 1.6-1 b L Chased ins1/4;flatten 10/4 MNR 5f D Alw n1x 4th/7 by hd 69 6.9-1 b L Long duel; weakened; 9/17 CT 4½f D OC 15k n1x 4th/8 -3L 71 12-1 b L Bid btw1/8;evenly
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CHARLES TOWN · RACE 8
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #8 Sutherland (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 87 · 74 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Hey Boots at 4-1. Use #2 Uncle Chinito in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 SUTHERLAND (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #8 SUTHERLAND — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.7%).
- #2 UNCLE CHINITO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.5%).
- #5 HEY BOOTS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 DISCREET DEVIL (20-1) — our fair 4.7% is above the morning line's 3.8%; supported by: 8-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Uncle Chinito; pressure from #6 Just For The Money, #1 Powered By Love; and works against #1 Powered By Love, #2 Uncle Chinito, #3 Dither.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta