R8 Charles Town · Optional Claiming $10,000

10:32 AM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $24,400 · 9 runners10:32 AM · 4½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $24K · Optional Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Powered By LoveA. Rios-Conde Jr. · M. ShanleyRios-Conde Jr. · ShanleyB66 79 75▼▼-109-2Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -1066 79 75B

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 66 79 75

    Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Shanley 22% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Judas Beast 3-1, R7: Rum N Coke 9-2
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK10/17 board here

    A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, optional claiming today. New trainer: Kevin J Joy had it last time, Mark Shanley now.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on Feb 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 3 wins, 10 on the board from 17 starts here
    RECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde from post 1 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 20 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CT6½f DClm 5k bc5th/8661.0-1LAggressive pace;faded
    9/26CT6½f DClm 15k n3xWon/9794.2-1LWicked pace;drift;driv
    8/14CT7f DClm 15k n2xWon/6752.5-1LDictated terms;driving
  2. 2Uncle Chinito▲A. Bocachica · J. ReynoldsBocachica · ReynoldsA74 74 80►@trip 857-2Fair 5-117%► Steady74 74 80@trip 85A▲ Lone speed on early pace3

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 74 80

    ▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey Abnel J Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Joan A Reynolds 30% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Improbable Journey 10-1, R3: Graceful Cat 6-1
    CLASS DROP8/13 board here

    Finished 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at CT, beaten ½ length. Drops from optional claiming to optional claiming.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Feb 6; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 13 starts here
    RECORD Abnel J Bocachica from post 2 here: 92 wins, 195 top-3 in 345 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/17CT4½f DOC 15k n1x3rd/8 -½L742.0-1LVied3w1/4;stayed on
    8/27CT4½f DOC 25k b3rd/8743.1-1LVeerd out;rush;stayed
    7/30CT4½f DOC 10kWon/7 by ½800.9-1LBore out st;held on
  3. 3Dither▼J. Davis · C. NamboDavis · NamboC57 48 64▼-320-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -357 48 64C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 57 48 64

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 6-for-60 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Bull Rider 8-1, R4: Monkey Wrench 20-1 · Trainer R1: Uniwinner 8-1, this race: Just For The Money 5-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6 furlongs. A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/27DEL6f DClm 5k b6th/7 -1½L5764-1b LVied between; weakened
    8/14DEL5½f DClm 5k b6th/6 -9L4814-1b LSent;rail;gave way
    5/2PRX5½f DClm 5k n1y11th/11 -10L6419-1b LBrief speed; gave way
  4. 4Discreet Devil▼LSJ. Jorge · J. RodriguezJorge · RodriguezC68 63 71►≡@trip 6920-1Fair 12-18%► Steady68 63 71 ≡@trip 69C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82LS

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 63 71

    ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Julio Jorge 14% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jesus Rodriguez 33% career
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Best recent figure is 71, well under the 82 par for this level. 0 for 13 at today's distance.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 20 (3F in :36.60), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Julio Jorge from post 4 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2DEL5f DClm 12k7th/8 -5½L6834-1b LStalked inside; faded
    9/25MED5f TClm 12k4th/8 -2¾L6342-1b LChased inside; evenly
    9/5DEL5f DOC 25k6th/9 -3½L7178-1b LChecked after start
  5. 5Hey BootsR. Latchman · M. Jones Jr.Latchman · Jones Jr.A65 76 74▲+4↕@trip 854-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +465 76 74 ↕@trip 85A2

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–76 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 76 74

    Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sisyphus 6-5, R7: Theycallhimgoldie 8-1 · Trainer R7: Fiber Proof 12-1, this race: Cold As Hell 10-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK11/14 board here

    14 wins from 36 starts at this distance. Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.60 on Jun 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 6 wins, 11 on the board from 14 starts here
    RECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 5 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 125 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/21CT4½f DOC 15k n1x5th/5 -4L653.4-1b LHop st;4w;left-ld;weak
    9/17CT4½f DOC 15k n1x2nd/8 -1L764.0-1b LAngld out;lf-ld;rally
    8/13CT4½f DOC 15k n1xWon/6742.5-1b LPace;left lead;all-out
  6. 6Just For the MoneyM. Burnham · C. NamboBurnham · NamboB74 76 83►5-1Fair 8-111%► Steady74 76 83B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 74 76 83

    Jockey Matilda Burnham 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cesar Nambo 17% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Uniwinner 8-1 · Trainer R1: Uniwinner 8-1, this race: Dither 20-1

    Figures have slipped: 83, 76, 74 over its last three. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16DEL6f DOC 12k5th/6 -4L7412-1b LPress pace 4p; yielded
    9/30DEL5½f DOC 10k6th/7 -5½L7616-1b LSome run too late 6wd
    9/11DEL6f DOC 12k4th/8 -1L834.9-1b LAltered course; game
  7. 7Williston WarriorJ. Raspaldo · T. ShanleyRaspaldo · ShanleyC56 69 51▼▼-10↕15-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1056 69 51 ↕C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–78 · Last 3 figs 56 69 51

    Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Timothy Shanley 22% career 8-for-78 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Musical Entourage 6-1, R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1, R6: My Max 5-2 · Trainer R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1

    Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now. Carries 112 pounds, 4 less than last time.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here
    RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 7 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 22 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CT7f DClm 5k b5th/7 -4L568.2-1b LVied3w;left-ld;weakend
    9/26CT6½f DClm 5k b6th/10 -5L6914-1b LChased ins1/4;empty
    9/17CT7f DAlw n1x9th/9 -10L518.2-1b LChase ins3/8;faltered
  8. 8Sutherland▲A. Bocachica · S. MeyersBocachica · MeyersA87 74 73▲▲+153-1Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best87 74 73A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 821

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 74 73

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82
    Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Shane Meyers 33% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R4: Salty Lime 5-1, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1 · Trainer R4: Salty Lime 5-1
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

    Shane Meyers takes over the training from McLean Robertson. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 85 for the next best.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Aug 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 8 here: 45 wins, 97 top-3 in 193 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1DEL6f DClm 6k n1yc2nd/8 by hd873.1-1b LPressed; ran on late
    9/12CBY6f DOC 12k n1x5th/6 -7½L7410-1b LOutside;3p;no bid
    6/14CBY1m TOC 20k n2x5th/6 -4½L738.7-1b LBmp brk;svd gnd;wkn
  9. 9Cold As HellJ. Acosta · M. Jones Jr.Acosta · Jones Jr.B63 69 71▼-5≡@trip 8210-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -563 69 71 ≡@trip 82B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 69 71

    Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Screaminvengeance 9-2 · Trainer R7: Fiber Proof 12-1, this race: Hey Boots 4-1
    Jky 8/45 from post 9

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 71 to 69 to 63. 2nd of 15 at 4F on Aug 8, in :47.20.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD J D Acosta from post 9 here: 8 wins, 19 top-3 in 45 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14CT4½f DClm 5k b4th/8 -5½L631.6-1b LChased ins1/4;flatten
    10/4MNR5f DAlw n1x4th/7 by hd696.9-1b LLong duel; weakened;
    9/17CT4½f DOC 15k n1x4th/8 -3L7112-1b LBid btw1/8;evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART4 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $10,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$24,400
Post
10:32 AM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#8 · 21%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #8 Sutherland (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 87 · 74 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Hey Boots at 4-1. Use #2 Uncle Chinito in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #8 SUTHERLAND (3-1) — our number agrees.
  • #8 SUTHERLAND — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.7%).
  • #2 UNCLE CHINITO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.5%).
  • #5 HEY BOOTS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 DISCREET DEVIL (20-1) — our fair 4.7% is above the morning line's 3.8%; supported by: 8-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Uncle Chinito; pressure from #6 Just For The Money, #1 Powered By Love; and works against #1 Powered By Love, #2 Uncle Chinito, #3 Dither.

Lead
2Uncle Chinito986Just For The Money971Powered By Love963Dither879Cold As Hell86
Press
5Hey Boots887Williston Warrior868Sutherland84
Stalk
4Discreet Devil91
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
Uncle Chinito
98
6
Just For The Money
97
1
Powered By Love
96
4
Discreet Devil
91
5
Hey Boots
88
3
Dither
87
7
Williston Warrior
86
9
Cold As Hell
86
8
Sutherland
84

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

3
Dither
21
1
Powered By Love
20
7
Williston Warrior
20
9
Cold As Hell
17
5
Hey Boots
15
6
Just For The Money
14
8
Sutherland
14
2
Uncle Chinito
10
4
Discreet Devil
9
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