R7 Charles Town · State-Bred Allowance · $36,600 purse

10:02 AM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $36,600 · 6 runners10:02 AM · 7f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $37K · State-Bred Allowance · $36,600 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Rum N Coke (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 84 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Fiber Proof▼LSM. Santaella · M. Jones Jr.Santaella · Jones Jr.B69 67 69►≡@trip 6912-1Fair 12-18%► Steady69 67 69 ≡@trip 69B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 67 69

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 11-for-88 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: It's Sizzling Time 7-2, R3: Bull's Gold 5-2 · Trainer R8: Hey Boots 4-1, R8: Cold As Hell 10-1

Purse drops from $300,000 to $36,600 against its last start. Finished 10th in a 10-horse race at CT, beaten 12 lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Urged btw3/8; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 52 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 18 starts here

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 1 here: 17 wins, 46 top-3 in 91 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	1⅛m D	sWVBrdrClcB300k	10th/10 -12L	69	113-1	b L	Urged btw3/8;faltered
9/19	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	4th/10 -8L	67	23-1	b L	Bid btw1/4;evenly str
8/13	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n2l	Won/5 by ½	69	2.0-1	b L	Ins1/4;3w;lf-ld;rally

2Rum N Coke▲★A. Rios-Conde Jr. · E. MeehanRios-Conde Jr. · MeehanB61 84 60▼▼-10↕@trip 849-2Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1061 84 60 ↕@trip 84B▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 84

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 84 60

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 84

Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Elizabeth E Meehan 30% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Judas Beast 3-1, R8: Powered By Love 9-2 · Trainer R6: Judas Beast 3-1

8/15 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 82 next best. Runs for $36,600 today after a $75,000 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 29d ago

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde from post 2 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 23 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVOnJcBCl75k	9th/10 -9½L	61	31-1	b L	Chased ins5/16;g-way
8/28	CT	7f D	sAlw36600n4l	2nd/9	84	8.3-1	b L	Forced pace; willingly
7/30	CT	6½f D	sAlw36600n4l	7th/7 -5L	60	17-1	b L	Vied inside; faltered

3Audible Storm▲A. Bocachica · J. RuncoBocachica · RuncoA79 84 79▲+3@trip 791-1Fair 2-133%▲ Up +379 84 79@trip 79A▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint3

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 84 79

▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 26%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R4: Salty Lime 5-1, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R8: Sutherland 3-1 · Trainer R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R2: Tornado Warning 7-2, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, this race: Annapolis Road 6-1

3/6 board here

Back to 7 furlongs off a 1 1/8 miles race. Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 82 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 154d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 3 here: 84 wins, 197 top-3 in 347 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	1⅛m D	sWVBrdrClcB300k	7th/10 -10L	79	22-1	b L	Roused btw5/16;empty
9/19	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	Won/10 by 2	84	1.0-1	b L	5w;left-ld;rallied clr
8/27	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n1x	Won/9	79	4.6-1	b L	3w-even1/8;kick away

4TheycallhimgoldieR. Latchman · A. RideoutLatchman · RideoutB66 74 68▼-4≡8-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -466 74 68 ≡B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 66–74 · Last 3 figs 66 74 68

Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Anthony M Ii Rideout 17% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Sisyphus 6-5, R8: Hey Boots 4-1

6/11 board here

Last out was 5th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse allowance race at CT. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Awkward start; empty last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (3F in :36.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 4 here: 18 wins, 57 top-3 in 121 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	1 1/16 D	sAlw37600n4l	5th/7 -13L	66	3.3-1	L	Awkward start; empty
10/2	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n1x	Won/9	74	3.8-1	L	Took over1/4;driving
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	2nd/7 -2¼L	68	7.1-1	L	Bid off rail1/8;chased

5Annapolis RoadJ. Diaz · J. RuncoDiaz · RuncoA74 78 61▲+5@trip 796-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +574 78 61@trip 79A2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 78 61

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-71 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Paint The Alley 8-1 · Trainer R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R2: Tornado Warning 7-2, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, this race: Audible Storm 1-1

★ FASTEST WORK

The Jul 23 work, 4F in :49.40, was the best time at that distance that morning. 3rd of 6 at 3F on Sep 24, in :37.00.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 23; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 5 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 20 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	1 1/16 D	sAlw37600n4l	3rd/7 -11L	74	4.8-1	b L	Bid btw1/4;one paced
8/28	CT	7f D	sAlw36600n4l	4th/9 -3¼L	78	9.4-1	b L	Chased pace; kept on
7/30	CT	6½f D	sAlw36600n4l	6th/7 -6L	61	37-1	b L	Urged5w3/8;weakened

6IhaveanappforthatJ. Toledo · A. LucasToledo · LucasA77 82 77►≡@trip 777-2Fair 7-222%► Steady77 82 77 ≡@trip 77A1

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–82 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 82 77

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony Lucas 26% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%)

★ FASTEST WORK5/5 board here

Runs for $36,600 today after a $75,000 race last time. Beaten 8½ lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse race at CT.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 71 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (1 win)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVRusRdBCB75k	3rd/8 -8½L	77	22-1	b L	Bid3w1/8;evenly show
9/18	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n2l	Won/9 by 1	82	1.2-1	b L	4w;sustained rally up
9/4	CNL	6f D	rAlw91500n2l	6th/9 -4¼L	77	9.2-1	b L	Inside;2p;no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $36,600 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$36,600

Post

10:02 AM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 22%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won four races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Ihaveanappforthat (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 77 · 82 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Annapolis Road at 6-1. Use #3 Audible Storm in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 AUDIBLE STORM (1-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#3 AUDIBLE STORM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (36.6% to their 40.5%).
#6 IHAVEANAPPFORTHAT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 18.0%).
#2 RUM N COKE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 14.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Rum N Coke; pressure from #4 Theycallhimgoldie; the shape helps #1 Fiber Proof, #4 Theycallhimgoldie, #5 Annapolis Road; and works against #2 Rum N Coke.

Lead

2Rum N Coke95

Press

4Theycallhimgoldie71

Stalk

6Ihaveanappforthat921Fiber Proof785Annapolis Road76

3Audible Storm76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Rum N Coke

Ihaveanappforthat

Fiber Proof

Annapolis Road

Theycallhimgoldie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Audible Storm

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