R6 Charles Town · State-Bred Allowance · $34,100 purse

9:32 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $34,100 · 6 runners9:32 PM · 4½f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $34K · State-Bred Allowance · $34,100 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Don't Get Cute▼▼LSS. Diaz Jr. · C. KellerDiaz Jr. · KellerB59 64 69▼▼-9@trip 7110-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -959 64 69@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 64)LS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 64 69

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 64)LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Sunday Jr Diaz 33% career 5-for-69 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Christopher M Keller 17% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Ekati Indian 15-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2, R5: Fiction 20-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 79 par. Figures have slipped: 69, 64, 59 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	6th/6 -2L	59	15-1	L	Dueled ins1/4;weaken
6/5	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	4th/7 -2½L	64	4.2-1	L	Chase ins1/8;evenly
2/18	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	2nd/6	69	1.6-1	L	Stp slw;vie ins;ran on

2Knight Sage★L. Reynolds · T. GramsReynolds · GramsA68 79 75▼-6@trip 792-1Fair 5-228%▼ Down -668 79 75@trip 79A★ Best at the trip 791

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 79 75

★ Best at the trip 79

Jockey L C Reynolds 32% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Noble Ruling 4-1 · Trainer R5: Noble Ruling 4-1

7/8 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 73 next best. Last out was 3rd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at CT.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 188d ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD L C Reynolds from post 2 here: 17 wins, 43 top-3 in 67 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	3rd/6 -4½L	68	4.7-1	L	Bmp;off rail;willingly
8/29	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8	79	0.3-1	L	Solo pace;clr driving
8/13	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6	75	1.4-1	L	Str duel inside;game

3Screaminvengeance▼J. Acosta · R. GillespieAcosta · GillespieB57 51 65▼-69-2Fair 7-112%▼ Down -657 51 65B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 57 51 65

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ryan A Gillespie 18% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Cold As Hell 10-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 27/159 from post 3

Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 7 furlongs. Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on Feb 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD J D Acosta from post 3 here: 27 wins, 83 top-3 in 159 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n2l	6th/7 -1L	57	9.3-1	b L	Vied inside;weakened
9/18	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n2l	9th/9 -6L	51	14-1	b L	Chase duel; gave way
8/27	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n1x	3rd/9 -1L	65	1.8-1	b L	Pace;collared;stayed

4Ifthedevildanced▼G. Larrosa · W. Lewis Jr.Larrosa · Lewis Jr.B68 64 54▲▲+10@trip 688-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best68 64 54@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 68 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 64 54

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey G Larrosa 29% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William R Jr Lewis 26% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Singing Softly 15-1

WON LASTJky 15/89 from post 4

Winner of a 6-horse maiden special weight race at CT last time. Has moved up each time out, 54 to 64 to 68.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 20d back

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD G Larrosa from post 4 here: 15 wins, 32 top-3 in 89 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/6	68	3.3-1	L	Pace;left-ld;clr drivn
6/4	CT	6½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 -1L	64	32-1	b L	Chase3ws;lf-ld;hld shw
5/8	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/9 -2L	54	10-1	b L	Rush chute;lf-ld;flat

5My Max▼J. Raspaldo · C. McKeeRaspaldo · McKeeA68 61 68▲+3≡@trip 725-2Fair 4-121%▲ Up +368 61 68 ≡@trip 72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 61 68

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Cynthia E McKee 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Musical Entourage 6-1, R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1, R8: Williston Warrior 15-1 · Trainer R1: Improbable Journey 10-1, R3: Graceful Cat 6-1, R3: Ekati Indian 15-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2

7/12 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. A 71 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled/bump; rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 303d ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 5 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 21 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	2nd/6 -6L	68	9.4-1	b L	Stumbled/bump;rally
10/2	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n1x	3rd/9 -9½L	61	7.2-1	b L	Thru traffic; up show
9/18	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n2l	5th/9 -8L	68	42-1	b L	Save ground; no impact

6Judas Beast▼A. Rios-Conde Jr. · E. MeehanRios-Conde Jr. · MeehanA70 73@trip 733-1Fair 4-121%—70 73@trip 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 792
Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Elizabeth E Meehan 30% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Rum N Coke 9-2, R8: Powered By Love 9-2 · Trainer R7: Rum N Coke 9-2
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at CT. Worked 4F in :47.40 on Sep 5, 2nd of 27 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago
RECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde from post 6 here: 2 wins, 2 top-3 in 24 rides · 4% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 CT 4½f D sMdSpWt Won/7 70 0.6-1 L Fractious;vie/ins;game
9/25 CT 4½f D MSW 2nd/10 -1L 73 12-1 L Vied ins1/4;chased on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7	70	0.6-1	L	Fractious;vie/ins;game
9/25	CT	4½f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	73	12-1	L	Vied ins1/4;chased on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $34,100 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$34,100

Post

9:32 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 28%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Knight Sage (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 68 · 79 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Judas Beast at 3-1. Use #5 My Max in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 KNIGHT SAGE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 KNIGHT SAGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 26.6%).
#5 MY MAX — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 22.8%).
#6 JUDAS BEAST — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 20.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Don't Get Cute; pressure from #4 Ifthedevildanced, #2 Knight Sage; and works against #1 Don't Get Cute, #2 Knight Sage, #3 Screaminvengeance.

Lead

1Don't Get Cute954Ifthedevildanced902Knight Sage893Screaminvengeance836Judas Beast83

Press

none

Stalk

5My Max78

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Don't Get Cute

Ifthedevildanced

Knight Sage

Screaminvengeance

Judas Beast

My Max

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ifthedevildanced

Judas Beast

Don't Get Cute

Knight Sage

My Max

Screaminvengeance

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