R3 Charles Town · Maiden Claiming $7,500

8:02 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $16,200 · 8 runners8:02 PM · 4½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $16K · Maiden Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Dixiespeprmintwist▼★J. Raspaldo · T. ShanleyRaspaldo · ShanleyA55 46 50▲+6≡@trip 623-1Fair 4-120%▲ Up +655 46 50 ≡@trip 62A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 67★ Best at the trip 621

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 46–55 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 46 50

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 67★ Best at the trip 62

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Timothy Shanley 22% career 8-for-78 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Musical Entourage 6-1, R6: My Max 5-2, R8: Williston Warrior 15-1 · Trainer R8: Williston Warrior 15-1

A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $7,500, and worth asking why. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 56 against a 67 par.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 1 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 25 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -4L	55	20-1	L	Press ins1/8;lf-ld;eve
9/25	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	4th/6 -½L	46	0.8-1	L	Vied2w1/4;faded1/16
12/10	CT	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	7th/8 -2¾L	50	6.0-1	L	Reluctant;5w;weakened

2Graceful Cat▼A. Bocachica · C. McKeeBocachica · McKeeB43 46 46▲+6↕@trip 466-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +643 46 46 ↕@trip 46B▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 67

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 20–46 · Best fig at today's trip 46 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 43 46 46

▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Abnel J Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Cynthia E McKee 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Improbable Journey 10-1, R8: Uncle Chinito 7-2 · Trainer R1: Improbable Journey 10-1, this race: Ekati Indian 15-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2, R6: My Max 5-2

60D LAYOFF

A 46 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par. Last out was 3rd, 5 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at CT.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 106 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Abnel J Bocachica from post 2 here: 92 wins, 195 top-3 in 345 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/20	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	3rd/8 -5L	43	7.8-1	b L	Bid2w1/8;lf-ld;evenly
7/31	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	6th/8 -3½L	46	2.4-1	b L	Chase4w1/4;weakened
10/29	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/7 -7L	46	46-1	L	Press ins1/4;gaveway

3Gram Kline▼▲J. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA48 43@trip 484-1Fair 7-112%—48 43@trip 48A▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 67▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 48 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 43

▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 67▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 12-for-70 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Dance For Green 5-2, R4: Moonlight Candy 9-5 · Trainer R4: Moonlight Candy 9-5

Led at the first call last time. Carries 123 pounds, 8 more than last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 20d back

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 3 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 47 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	2nd/6	48	1.7-1	b L	Vied2w1/4;evenly plc
7/11	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	DNF	—	5.6-1	b L	Pressed;bolted;walkOff
6/12	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/10	43	2.7-1	L	Bmp;duel ins;faded str

4Aspiring Queen▼W. Ho · J. PooleHo · PooleC36 14 36▲▲+1115-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best36 14 36C▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 67
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 36 14 36
▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 8-for-44 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Attractive Soul 7-2, R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1, R5: Zealous Storm 8-1, R5: Fiction 20-1
Cuts back from 5½ furlongs to 4½ furlongs. Beaten 7 lengths for 4th in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at MNR.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 88d ago
RECORD Wesley Ho from post 4 here: 5 wins, 16 top-3 in 47 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 MNR 5½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/5 -7L 36 48-1 b L No threat
8/24 MNR 6f D sMd15000 8th/8 -26L 14 57-1 b L Always outrun
8/9 MNR 5f D sMdSpWt 8th/8 -18L 36 41-1 b L Trailed throughout
5Attractive Soul▼E. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleB43 46 45►7-2Fair 6-115%► Steady43 46 45B▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 67
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 43 46 45
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 67
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1, R5: Zealous Storm 8-1 · Trainer this race: Aspiring Queen 15-1, R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1, R5: Zealous Storm 8-1, R5: Fiction 20-1
Drops from maiden claiming $15,000 to maiden claiming $7,500. Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled break rushed), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 88 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 MNR 6f D sMd15000 2nd/6 -5L 43 3.1-1 L Stumbled break rushed
9/6 MNR 5½f D sMdSpWt 4th/7 -4L 46 32-1 L Tired
8/16 MNR 5½f D MCL 15k 3rd/5 -8L 45 3.9-1 L Played no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	MNR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/5 -7L	36	48-1	b L	No threat
8/24	MNR	6f D	sMd15000	8th/8 -26L	14	57-1	b L	Always outrun
8/9	MNR	5f D	sMdSpWt	8th/8 -18L	36	41-1	b L	Trailed throughout

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	MNR	6f D	sMd15000	2nd/6 -5L	43	3.1-1	L	Stumbled break rushed
9/6	MNR	5½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/7 -4L	46	32-1	L	Tired
8/16	MNR	5½f D	MCL 15k	3rd/5 -8L	45	3.9-1	L	Played no factor

6Ekati Indian▼LSS. Diaz Jr. · C. McKeeDiaz Jr. · McKeeB47 38 53►@trip 5315-1Fair 15-16%► Steady47 38 53@trip 53B▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 67LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 53 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 38 53

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 67LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Sunday Jr Diaz 33% career 5-for-69 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Cynthia E McKee 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Victory Song 9-2, R5: Fiction 20-1, R6: Don't Get Cute 10-1 · Trainer R1: Improbable Journey 10-1, this race: Graceful Cat 6-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2, R6: My Max 5-2

Winless in 10 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 13 starts.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 246 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 13 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	3rd/6 -6½L	47	33-1	b L	Save ground;improved
8/20	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	5th/8 -8½L	38	44-1	b L	Press4w1/4;faded str
7/31	CT	4½f D	fsMd7500	4th/8 -7L	53	37-1	b L	Trailer1/4;by-faders

7Bull's Gold▼M. Santaella · R. BrownSantaella · BrownA52 57 46▼-3@trip 615-2Fair 7-221%▼ Down -352 57 46@trip 61A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 672

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 57 46

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 11-for-88 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 12-for-70 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: It's Sizzling Time 7-2, R7: Fiber Proof 12-1 · Trainer R1: It's Sizzling Time 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 61, with 56 next best. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $7,500 today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 17 (3F in :35.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 7 here: 13 wins, 26 top-3 in 59 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/7 -6½L	52	2.9-1	b L	Chase ins1/4;no impact
10/2	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/9 -1½L	57	1.8-1	b L	5w/btw1/8;lf-ld;improv
7/30	CT	7f D	fsAlw34100n2l	10th/10 -17L	46	17-1	b L	Chased1st;retreated

8Singing Softly▼G. Larrosa · L. ConnLarrosa · ConnC35 39 39▼-4@trip 3915-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -435 39 39@trip 39C▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 673

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 39 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 35 39 39

▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 67

Jockey G Larrosa 29% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Linda P Conn 17% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Ifthedevildanced 8-1

CLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 8/41 from post 8

7th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 8. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 20d back

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD G Larrosa from post 8 here: 8 wins, 14 top-3 in 41 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/17	CT	6½f D	MCL 12k	7th/8 -13L	35	38-1	Save ground; no threat
8/6	CT	4½f D	MCL 5k	6th/8 -8½L	39	32-1	Fractious gate;no bid
3/12	CT	6½f D	MCL 12k	7th/7 -6L	39	25-1	Save ground;no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #5, #1.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$16,200

Post

8:02 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 20%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Dixiespeprmintwist (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 55 · 46 · 50. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Bull's Gold at 5-2. Use #8 Singing Softly in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 BULL'S GOLD (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#7 BULL'S GOLD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.2%).
#1 DIXIESPEPRMINTWIST — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.4%).
#5 ATTRACTIVE SOUL — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.7% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 SINGING SOFTLY (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Gram Kline; pressure from #5 Attractive Soul, #1 Dixiespeprmintwist; the shape helps #1 Dixiespeprmintwist, #2 Graceful Cat; and works against #3 Gram Kline, #4 Aspiring Queen, #5 Attractive Soul.

Lead

3Gram Kline915Attractive Soul87

Press

1Dixiespeprmintwist88

Stalk

2Graceful Cat83

7Bull's Gold816Ekati Indian71

No style yet

4Aspiring Queen818Singing Softly73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Gram Kline

Dixiespeprmintwist

Attractive Soul

Graceful Cat

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ekati Indian

Bull's Gold

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Bet types

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