1MonterreyM. Santaella · M. Jones Jr.Santaella · Jones Jr.B54 78 72▼▼-15↕@trip 754-1Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -1554 78 72 ↕@trip 75B3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–78 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 78 72
Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 12-for-91 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-37 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R3: Up To The Top 3-1, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2, R8: Market Watch 4-12/4 board hereTops the field on speed figures, a 78 against 76 for the next best. Beaten 10 lengths for 7th in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at CT.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 152d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Moises Santaella from post 1 here: 17 wins, 46 top-3 in 91 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 CT 7f D Clm 4k n2x 7th/7 -10L 54 9.4-1 L Veered out bmp;noBid 9/28 MNR 1m D Clm 4k n2x Won/7 by hd 78 3.1-1 L Abreast up last stride 8/30 MNR 1m D Clm 4k n2x 2nd/6 -10L 72 4.4-1 L Rallied for place ins 2CryptonymC. Rodriguez · S. LaneRodriguez · LaneB57 43 71▼-5↕@trip 756-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -557 43 71 ↕@trip 75BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–73 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 43 71
Jockey Carlos J Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Scott J Lane 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetChanges barns, from Daniel Hurtak to Scott J Lane. Drops from $8,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 55d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 10k b 7th/8 -10L 57 26-1 b L Trailed; no threat; 9/12 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 10k b 8th/8 -14L 43 20-1 b L No factor; outrun 4/19 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 8k b 4th/8 -8½L 71 18-1 b L Came 6 wide;late rally 3Singularity▼J. Acosta · R. RiosAcosta · RiosB55 72 29▲+3↕@trip 576-1Fair 10-110%
▲ Up +355 72 29 ↕@trip 57B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–72 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 72 29
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-65 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Robert Rios 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetCLASS DROPJky 27/159 from post 3Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Finished 5th in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT, beaten 11 lengths.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 44d backRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD J D Acosta from post 3 here: 27 wins, 83 top-3 in 159 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 CT 7f D Clm 5k n3l 5th/6 -11L 55 22-1 L Outrun; no threat 8/20 CNL 1m T Clm 16k b 12th/12 -11L 72 96-1 L Inside; no factor 7/30 CNL 1 1/16 D Clm 12k b 5th/5 -19L 29 47-1 L Chased 4p; retreated 4Silent RoarJ. Jorge · J. RodriguezJorge · RodriguezA59 71 76▼▼-14@trip 703-1Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -1459 71 76@trip 70ACard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 71 76
Jockey Julio Jorge 14% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jesus Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetTrending the wrong way on speed, 76 to 71 to 59. Last out was 3rd, ¾ length behind the winner, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at DEL.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 60d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Julio Jorge from post 4 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 DEL 1 1/16 D Clm 8k b 3rd/7 -¾L 59 7.9-1 b L Belatedly for show 9/18 DEL 1m D Clm 5k b 7th/9 -2¾L 71 10-1 b L Inside; flattened out 9/5 DEL 1 1/16 D Clm 5k b 3rd/6 -2L 76 4.6-1 b L Steady close;late gain 5Flag Officer▼W. Cullum · S. JacksonCullum · JacksonA58 74 49▼▼-8↕@trip 755-2Fair 5-230%
▼▼ Big drop -858 74 49 ↕@trip 75A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 74)1Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 74 49
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 74)Jockey W Cullum 26% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Sherry L Jackson 31% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)CLASS UPClass relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. 0 for 7 at today's distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 0 works in 30d, last 35d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD W Cullum from post 5 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 43 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CT 7f D Clm 10k n3x 6th/6 -8L 58 20-1 b L Chase3w3/8;faded 8/7 CT 1 1/16 D Clm 5k n3lc 2nd/6 74 8.7-1 b L Bmp;clr1/4;ins game 6/19 CT 7f D Clm 5k n3lc 6th/7 -11L 49 2.6-1 b L Veered out bump;empty 6Scat▼▲J. Diaz · B. BoyceDiaz · BoyceA73 42 68▲▲+20↕@trip 737-2Fair 7-222%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best73 42 68 ↕@trip 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 78▲ Lone speed on early pace2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 42 68
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 78▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-73 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Brian L Boyce 29% career 2-for-3 on dirt this meetWON LAST2/3 board hereComes in off a victory in a 6-horse $4,500 claiming race at CT. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 79).
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 112d backRECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 6 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CT 1 1/16 D Clm 5k n2l Won/6 73 7.6-1 b L Controlled pace;drivin 10/2 CT 6½f D Clm 5k n2l 8th/8 -7½L 42 2.2-1 b L Chase5w1/2;faltered 9/18 CT 7f D MCL 5k Won/8 by 2 68 2.1-1 b L Side stepped foe;rally
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #5, #6.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CHARLES TOWN · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 103.83
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Flag Officer (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 58 · 74 · 49. Backup is #6 Scat at 7-2. Use #1 Monterrey in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 FLAG OFFICER (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #5 FLAG OFFICER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 23.0%).
- #4 SILENT ROAR — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 20.1%).
- #6 SCAT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 17.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #6 Scat; pressure from #5 Flag Officer, #3 Singularity.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EARLY NO CARRYOVER PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5) / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta