R2 Charles Town · Claiming $5,000

7:32 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $17,000 · 6 runners7:32 PM · 4½f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $17K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ok By MeM. Mawing · R. WernethMawing · WernethB70 60 68▲▲+10@trip 627-2Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +1070 60 68@trip 62B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 60 68

Jockey M A Mawing 25% career · Trainer Robert A Werneth 20% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Feeling Enchanted 15-1

CLASS DROP

Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten 1 length for 3rd in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at MED.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 30d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MED	5f T	Clm 5k b	3rd/6 -1L	70	5.0-1	b L	Dueled 2w; evenly
8/17	MNR	5f D	Clm 7k	5th/7 -6L	60	7.1-1	b L	Weakened wide lane
7/19	CNL	5½f T	Clm 10k	9th/9 -3½L	68	59-1	b L	Dueled2w;came3w;empty

2Speedy Bubbles★M. Chilo · V. PeltrocheChilo · PeltrocheA76 61 70▲▲+10@trip 809-5Fair 8-539%▲▲ Big jump +1076 61 70@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 801

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 61 70

★ Best at the trip 80

Jockey Maximo Chilo 25% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Vanessa Peltroche 27% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Malibu Candy 12-1, R5: Thunder Pass 15-1, R7: Mr Mahomes 10-1, R8: Barapha 30-1 · Trainer R6: Brother Conway 5-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST6/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 76. Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Maximo Chilo from post 2 here: 19 wins, 51 top-3 in 144 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	Won/5	76	0.6-1	b L	Broke sharp;driving
10/2	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	5th/8 by hd	61	3.5-1	b L	Vied inside; faded str
9/11	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	3rd/7	70	4.3-1	b L	Vie2w;clr1/8;hung str

3Bali Hai▼R. Wilson · A. Scott Jr.Wilson · Scott Jr.B64 59 51▲▲+23↕@trip 7612-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +2364 59 51 ↕@trip 76B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 14–64 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 59 51

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Rayan Wilson 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Alfred H Jr Scott 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 51 to 59 to 64. Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 31 (4F in :49.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 15 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/5 -4L	64	9.3-1	b L	Awk st;stdy1/4;trying
10/2	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	6th/8 -3¼L	59	52-1	b L	Slow start; no impact
9/11	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	5th/7 -7L	51	60-1	b L	Off pace3w;weakened

4DramaJ. Diaz · T. ShanleyDiaz · ShanleyA66 46 49▲▲+12↕@trip 645-2Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +1266 46 49 ↕@trip 64A3

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–68 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 46 49

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-73 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Tyler S Shanley 22% career 8-for-79 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Scat 7-2, R5: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R6: Radar Alert 9-2, R8: Palagio 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: optional claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 4 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CT	6½f D	OC 10k	6th/9 -3L	66	41-1	L	Solo pace;gave way
10/8	CT	7f D	Alw n1x	7th/7 -10L	46	18-1	b L	Vied ins1/2; faltered
7/31	CT	6½f D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -4L	49	8.5-1	b L	3w;chased duel;empty

5Ran the RedV. Rodriguez · K. JoyRodriguez · JoyA67 70 53▲+5@trip 753-1Fair 7-223%▲ Up +567 70 53@trip 75A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 70 53

Jockey V Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Kevin J Joy 31% career ★ 11-for-47 on dirt this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Stella's Candy 12-1, R7: Harley Sioux 20-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST9/14 board here

Won last out in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT. Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 82d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD V Rodriguez from post 5 here: 9 wins, 55 top-3 in 165 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	Won/8	67	1.7-1	b L	Vied3w1/4;stout drive
8/30	CNL	6f D	Clm 16k b	4th/7 -1¾L	70	11-1	b L	Duel turn;weakend btwn
8/15	CT	6½f D	OC 15k n1x	4th/8 -4½L	53	24-1	b L	Rouse3w1/4;no punch

6Uncaptured Ruby▼G. Mayhew · M. MalgariniMayhew · MalgariniB47 57 36►@trip 5720-1Fair 50-12%► Steady47 57 36@trip 57B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 57 36

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey G W Mayhew 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mawing Tin Malgarini

0/9 board here

Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6½ furlongs. Best recent figure is 66, well under the 77 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

RECORD Not on the board in 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k b	6th/7 -12L	47	54-1	b L	Press3w1/2;weakened
8/28	CT	4½f D	Alw n1x	6th/8 -10L	57	49-1	b L	Hesitant start; 4wd
2/28	CT	7f D	Clm 5k b	10th/10 -22L	36	95-1		Slow start; outrun

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$17,000

Post

7:32 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 39%

Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Speedy Bubbles (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 76 · 61 · 70. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Ran The Red at 3-1. Use #4 Drama in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 SPEEDY BUBBLES (9-5) — our number agrees.
#2 SPEEDY BUBBLES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.4% to their 28.8%).
#4 DRAMA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 23.0%).
#5 RAN THE RED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.8% to their 20.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Speedy Bubbles; pressure from #1 Ok By Me, #3 Bali Hai; the shape helps #6 Uncaptured Ruby; and works against #1 Ok By Me, #2 Speedy Bubbles, #3 Bali Hai.

Lead

2Speedy Bubbles941Ok By Me923Bali Hai924Drama88

Press

5Ran The Red89

Stalk

none

6Uncaptured Ruby85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Speedy Bubbles

Ok By Me

Bali Hai

Ran The Red

Drama

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Uncaptured Ruby

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Bet types

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