R5 Charles Town · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

9:02 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $32,900 · 6 runners9:02 PM · 4½f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $33K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Golden Boss Man▼J. Diaz · R. BrownDiaz · BrownB47 59 50▼▼-8@trip 539-2Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -847 59 50@trip 53B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 743

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 59 50

▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-73 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Scat 7-2, R2: Drama 5-2, R6: Radar Alert 9-2, R8: Palagio 8-1 · Trainer R3: Up To The Top 3-1, this race: Magic On The Bay 9-5, R6: Oleg 20-1, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race. Best recent figure is 61, well under the 74 par for this level.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 3; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 1 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 27 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CT	6½f D	sMdSpWt	8th/9 -5¾L	47	6.4-1		Sent;vie ins;caved
9/19	CT	7f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -4L	59	9.7-1		Rank gate;ins;rallied
8/21	CT	7f D	sMdSpWt	5th/7 -8½L	50	8.6-1	b L	Rank paddock;weakend

2Magic on the Bay▼★M. Santaella · R. BrownSantaella · BrownA62 45 53▲▲+13@trip 629-5Fair 5-228%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best62 45 53@trip 62A▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 622

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 45 53

▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 62

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 12-for-91 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Monterrey 4-1, R3: Up To The Top 3-1, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2, R8: Market Watch 4-1 · Trainer R3: Up To The Top 3-1, this race: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R6: Oleg 20-1, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 62 against 61 for the next best. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at CT.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 15; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 2 here: 21 wins, 50 top-3 in 108 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/6 -2L	62	11-1	b L	All-out;stdy1/8;trying
10/3	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/7 -8½L	45	7.0-1	b L	Fractious;chs;weakend
7/30	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/8 -6L	53	3.4-1	b L	Chase4w5/16;empty str

3Cuppa Jimmy Gold▼C. Lopez · D. WaltersLopez · WaltersA581-1Fair 1-152%—58A▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 741
Card model 52% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 58
▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer David L Walters 31% career ★ 5-for-20 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Sailor Sam 6-1, R7: Fiber Rocks 6-1 · Trainer R3: Unifiabelle 1-1
Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 4½ furlongs. Finished 5th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at CT, beaten 1½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago
RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 3 here: 14 wins, 48 top-3 in 86 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CT 7f D sMdSpWt 5th/8 -1½L 58 1.3-1 b L Vied inside;faded1/16
4Feeling Enchanted▼M. Mawing · T. WilhelmMawing · WilhelmB49 48 48▲▲+11↕@trip 4915-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best49 48 48 ↕@trip 49B▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 74
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 19–49 · Best fig at today's trip 49 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 48 48
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey M A Mawing 25% career · Trainer Tabitha M Wilhelm 21% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Ok By Me 7-2
0/4 board here
Winless in 4 starts at this distance. A 49 is the high figure lately, short of the 74 par.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 94d back)
RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 CT 4½f D sMdSpWt 4th/6 -4½L 49 52-1 L Chased duo;gave way
9/25 CT 4½f D MSW 8th/10 -9L 48 74-1 L Roused4w1/4;gave way
8/29 CT 4½f D sMdSpWt 7th/8 -6L 48 79-1 L Bump/pinch;no impact
5All Roads to Denis▼▼A. Rios-Conde Jr. · A. JacksonRios-Conde Jr. · JacksonA55 34 45▲▲+1310-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1355 34 45A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · Last 3 figs 55 34 45
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 74▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Angelo G Jackson 31% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)
★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/19 from post 5
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Alexis Jr Rios-Conde takes over from Brandon Tapara in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 22; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde has never won from post 5 here (4 top-3 in 19 rides) · 4% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 MNR 5½f D sMdSpWt 3rd/7 55 25-1 b L Caught late
10/4 MNR 6f D sMd15000 4th/6 -5L 34 5.0-1 b L Pressed pace; tired;
9/21 MNR 6f D sMdSpWt 8th/10 -13L 45 16-1 b L Weakened on the turn

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CT	7f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -1½L	58	1.3-1	b L	Vied inside;faded1/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/6 -4½L	49	52-1	L	Chased duo;gave way
9/25	CT	4½f D	MSW	8th/10 -9L	48	74-1	L	Roused4w1/4;gave way
8/29	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	7th/8 -6L	48	79-1	L	Bump/pinch;no impact

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	MNR	5½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7	55	25-1	b L	Caught late
10/4	MNR	6f D	sMd15000	4th/6 -5L	34	5.0-1	b L	Pressed pace; tired;
9/21	MNR	6f D	sMdSpWt	8th/10 -13L	45	16-1	b L	Weakened on the turn

6Thunder Pass▼M. Chilo · J. StehrChilo · StehrB44 51 59▼-7@trip 5915-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -744 51 59@trip 59B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 74

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 51 59

▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 74

Jockey Maximo Chilo 25% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Joseph P Stehr 16% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Speedy Bubbles 9-5, R3: Malibu Candy 12-1, R7: Mr Mahomes 10-1, R8: Barapha 30-1 · Trainer R3: Malibu Candy 12-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 59 to 51 to 44. Still looking for the first win after 12 starts.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled st; wekened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Maximo Chilo from post 6 here: 8 wins, 49 top-3 in 132 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/6 -8L	44	28-1	b L	Stumbled st;wekened
10/3	CT	4½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 -3½L	51	34-1	b L	Vie btw5/16;lf-ld;even
9/10	CT	4½f D	sMd12500	3rd/10 -5½L	59	41-1	b L	Press ins1/4;willingly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 5

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$32,900

Post

9:02 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 52%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold (early speed, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 58. Backup is #2 Magic On The Bay at 9-5. Use #1 Golden Boss Man in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 CUPPA JIMMY GOLD (1-1) — our number agrees.
#3 CUPPA JIMMY GOLD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (42.7% to their 39.8%).
#2 MAGIC ON THE BAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (29.8% to their 28.5%).
#1 GOLDEN BOSS MAN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold; pressure from #2 Magic On The Bay, #5 All Roads To Denis; the shape helps #1 Golden Boss Man; and works against #2 Magic On The Bay, #3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold, #4 Feeling Enchanted.

Lead

3Cuppa Jimmy Gold912Magic On The Bay895All Roads To Denis89

Press

6Thunder Pass74

Stalk

none

1Golden Boss Man89

No style yet

4Feeling Enchanted83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cuppa Jimmy Gold

Magic On The Bay

All Roads To Denis

Thunder Pass

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Golden Boss Man

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