R6 Charles Town · Optional Claiming $15,000

9:32 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $29,800 · 7 runners9:32 PM · 6½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $30K · Optional Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Radar Alert (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Brother ConwayF. Peltroche · V. PeltrochePeltroche · PeltrocheB77 73 78►@trip 355-1Fair 7-113%► Steady77 73 78@trip 35B3

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 35 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 73 78

    Jockey F Peltroche 28% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Vanessa Peltroche 27% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Lil Pegasus 8-1 · Trainer R2: Speedy Bubbles 9-5
    6/10 board here

    Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at CT. Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 2)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 412d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD F Peltroche from post 1 here: 25 wins, 77 top-3 in 145 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/22CT1 1/16 DOC 15k n1x3rd/6 -1½L775.1-1b LPace;yield;re-bid str
    10/8CT1 1/16 DOC 15k n1x2nd/5 -3L733.4-1b LVied inside; evenly
    9/12CT1 1/16 DOC 15k n1x3rd/6785.0-1b LDuel ins;yield;stayed
  2. 2Sailor SamC. Lopez · T. GramsLopez · GramsB78 72 71▲+4@trip 726-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +478 72 71@trip 72B

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 72 71

    Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 5-for-41 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Cuppa Jimmy Gold 1-1, R7: Fiber Rocks 6-1 · Trainer this race: Mi Dinero 10-1, R7: Malibu Son 9-5, R7: Fiber Rocks 6-1
    CLASS DROPWON LAST3/5 board here

    Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Has moved up each time out, 71 to 72 to 78.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 154 days ago
    RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 2 here: 17 wins, 42 top-3 in 90 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16CT7f DClm 10k n3xWon/6781.1-1b LStifled bid1/16;gamely
    9/26CT6½f DClm 15k n3x4th/9 -4½L726.7-1b LChased ins1/4;stalled
    8/28CNL1m TOC 30k11th/11 -8¾L7159-1b L2w-ins;faded
  3. 3OlegW. Ebow · R. BrownEbow · BrownB75 76 57▲+5↕@trip 7520-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +575 76 57 ↕@trip 75B

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–78 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 76 57

    Jockey Warren Iii Ebow 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Trainer R3: Up To The Top 3-1, R5: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, this race: I'm Not Catty 5-2 +1 more
    WON LAST7/9 board here

    Ronney W Brown takes over the training from Tyler S Shanley. Won last out in an 8-horse $4,500 claiming race at CT.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CT6½f DClm 5k bcWon/8 by 1½754.9-1b LIns1/4;4w1/16;rallied
    9/25CT7f DClm 5k b2nd/10 -5½L766.8-1b LBid4w1/8;rallied place
    9/17CT7f DAlw n1x8th/9 -10L5725-1b LSave ground;weakend
  4. 4I'm Not CattyM. Santaella · R. BrownSantaella · BrownA79 77 77►≡@trip 725-2Fair 7-223%► Steady79 77 77 ≡@trip 72A2

    Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–79 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 77 77

    Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 12-for-91 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Monterrey 4-1, R3: Up To The Top 3-1, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, R8: Market Watch 4-1 · Trainer R3: Up To The Top 3-1, R5: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, this race: Oleg 20-1 +1 more
    60D LAYOFFWON LAST7/9 board here

    Last start was a win, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at CT at 3-1. Off 71 days since the last start.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 248 days ago
    RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Moises Santaella from post 4 here: 23 wins, 49 top-3 in 90 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/21CT7f DOC 15k n1xWon/7 by 1½793.0-1b LJostled1st;determined
    7/24CT1 1/16 DOC 15k n1xc3rd/7772.4-1b LVied ins3x;chased on
    7/2CT7f DClm 15k n3xcWon/8 by 2770.9-1b L3w;wore dnw foe drvn
  5. 5From the Clouds▲J. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA91 74 65▲▲+229-5Fair 2-132%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best91 74 65A▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 801

    Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 74 65

    ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 80
    Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 14-for-63 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Crystal Veil 3-5, R8: Military Grade 9-2 · Trainer R4: Kickin' With Caity 6-1, R4: Crystal Veil 3-5, R8: Military Grade 9-2
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    736 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 91, with 86 next best.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
    RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 5 here: 13 wins, 24 top-3 in 47 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/25GP7f DMSWWon/9914.1-1b L3-2p;kicked away upper
    7/13GP1 1/16 TMSW6th/10 -9½L747.2-1LHit gate; 4wd
    5/11GP7f DMSW6th/7 -13L652.7-1LBump btw early; 4wd
  6. 6Radar Alert★J. Diaz · J. RuncoDiaz · RuncoA74 63 80►@trip 819-2Fair 8-111%► Steady74 63 80@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 81

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 63 80

    ★ Best at the trip 81
    Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-73 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 10-for-54 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Scat 7-2, R2: Drama 5-2, R5: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R8: Palagio 8-1
    CLASS DROP6/9 board here

    Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Jockey switch: Arnaldo Bocachica last out, Jose Y Diaz today.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Outrun; 5wd upper last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Apr 8; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 6 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/13LRL5½f TROC 1-658th/9 -5¾L7422-1b LOutrun; 5wd upper
    8/6CT6½f DOC 25k b5th/6 -4¾L6311-1b LOff pace3w;no impact
    7/9CT7f DOC 25k b3rd/6 -1½L8015-1b LRail mv1/4;chased on
  7. 7Mi DineroLSL. Reynolds · T. GramsReynolds · GramsC73 67 77►@trip 7310-1Fair 12-18%► Steady73 67 77@trip 73CLS

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 67 77

    LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey L C Reynolds 32% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 5-for-41 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R7: Malibu Son 9-5 · Trainer this race: Sailor Sam 6-1, R7: Malibu Son 9-5, R7: Fiber Rocks 6-1

    An 80 top number against a 80 par, so it fits the level. 2nd last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Idled1/4; 5w; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :52.40 on May 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD L C Reynolds from post 7 here: 8 wins, 25 top-3 in 53 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8CT6½f DAlw n1x2nd/8 -3½L7316-1LIdled1/4;5w;rallied
    9/5CNL5½f TClm 25k9th/9 -10L6724-1LThru early; trailed in
    8/9CNL5½f TClm 10k cWon/12774.4-1LPace between;held well

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main2-turn

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $15,000

Field
7 runners
Purse
$29,800
Post
9:32 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#5 · 32%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 76.44

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 From The Clouds (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 91 · 74 · 65. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 I'm Not Catty at 5-2. Use #1 Brother Conway in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #5 FROM THE CLOUDS (9-5) — our number agrees.
  • #5 FROM THE CLOUDS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 28.1%).
  • #4 I'M NOT CATTY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.4%).
  • #6 RADAR ALERT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Brother Conway; pressure from #5 From The Clouds, #3 Oleg; the shape helps #2 Sailor Sam, #3 Oleg, #4 I'm Not Catty; and works against #1 Brother Conway.

Lead
1Brother Conway77
Press
5From The Clouds893Oleg874I'm Not Catty872Sailor Sam76
Stalk
6Radar Alert90
Close
7Mi Dinero83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Radar Alert
90
5
From The Clouds
89
3
Oleg
87
4
I'm Not Catty
87
1
Brother Conway
77
2
Sailor Sam
76

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

7
Mi Dinero
18
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