★ Distance horse: #5 Policy Change has the best figure at the trip (79) and isn't in our top three.
Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code CT
Charles Town
Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Races
8
on the card
Feature
R4
J.E. Casy Memorial Stakes · $75K
First post
7:00 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
51
avg field 6
● Track conditions today
Charles Town — today's signals
Surface read
±0.72s STEADY
Surface holds steady day to day — final times read true off the page, so our speed figures need little adjustment here.
day-to-day swing · 115 race-days sampled
Weather
Unavailable
No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #2 (13%) · Rail helps
Even by post — inside 12% / outside 9%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 31,738 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Daily DoubleRaces 1–2
R1#5 Flag Officer · #6 ScatClose: top 2
R2#2 Speedy Bubbles · #5 Ran The Red · #4 DramaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 1–3
R1#5 Flag Officer · #6 ScatClose: top 2
R2#2 Speedy Bubbles · #5 Ran The Red · #4 DramaClose: top 3
R3#2 UnifiabelleTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4
R2#2 Speedy Bubbles · #5 Ran The Red · #4 DramaClose: top 3
R3#2 UnifiabelleTop pick
R4#4 Crystal VeilTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5
R2#2 Speedy Bubbles · #5 Ran The Red · #4 DramaClose: top 3
R3#2 UnifiabelleTop pick
R4#4 Crystal VeilTop pick
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5
R3#2 UnifiabelleTop pick
R4#4 Crystal VeilTop pick
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 6Races 3–8
R3#2 UnifiabelleTop pick
R4#4 Crystal VeilTop pick
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
R6#5 From The CloudsTop pick
R7#4 Malibu Son · #3 Romantic Warrior · #7 CharlieniteClose: top 3
R8#7 Go Go Jelly Roll · #2 Military Grade · #3 Market WatchClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 4–8
R4#4 Crystal VeilTop pick
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
R6#5 From The CloudsTop pick
R7#4 Malibu Son · #3 Romantic Warrior · #7 CharlieniteClose: top 3
R8#7 Go Go Jelly Roll · #2 Military Grade · #3 Market WatchClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
R6#5 From The CloudsTop pick
R7#4 Malibu Son · #3 Romantic Warrior · #7 CharlieniteClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 5–8
R5#3 Cuppa Jimmy Gold · #2 Magic On The Bay · #1 Golden Boss ManClose: top 3
R6#5 From The CloudsTop pick
R7#4 Malibu Son · #3 Romantic Warrior · #7 CharlieniteClose: top 3
R8#7 Go Go Jelly Roll · #2 Military Grade · #3 Market WatchClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Late Pick 3Races 6–8 · $3 min
R6#5 From The CloudsTop pick
R7#4 Malibu Son · #3 Romantic Warrior · #7 CharlieniteClose: top 3
R8#7 Go Go Jelly Roll · #2 Military Grade · #3 Market WatchClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.