★ Distance horse: #4 Stella's Candy (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 66 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.
1Song of EchosJ. Jorge · K. RodriguezJorge · Rodriguez?7-2Fair 7-112%
—Debut?3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Julio Jorge 14% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Kristy Rodriguez 33% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)First career start, by Echo Town out of Hissy Fit. Debut for a trainer who is 12% with first-timers, over 24 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 7; 2 works in 30dRECORD Julio Jorge from post 1 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 27 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Echo Town out of Hissy Fit (Yesbyjimminy)Trainer K. Rodriguez: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 25% in the money (24 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 19% in the money (21 starts) · Maiden special weights: 13% wins, 41% in the money (83 starts)Jockey J. Jorge in sprints: 9 wins from 105 (9%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/24 CT 4f :49.80 breezing 8/15 10/7 CT 3f :35.60 breezing 1/5 ● bullet 9/26 CT 3f :38.60 breezing 34/41 2UnifiabelleA. Bocachica · D. WaltersBocachica · Walters?1-1Fair 1-152%
—Debut?1Card model 52% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 21-for-93 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer David L Walters 31% career ★ 5-for-20 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hotNo race form yet, but it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 1, in :46.40. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 1).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.40 on Oct 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 2 here: 92 wins, 195 top-3 in 345 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Unified out of Three Belles (Flatter)Trainer D. Walters: 1st-time starters: 35% wins, 53% in the money (17 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 33% wins, 53% in the money (15 starts) · Maiden special weights: 28% wins, 55% in the money (29 starts)Jockey A. Bocachica in sprints: 109 wins from 366 (30%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/1 CT 4f :46.40 breezing 1/9 ● bullet from gate 9/9 CT 3f :34.40 breezing 1/5 ● bullet 8/19 CT 3f :37.00 breezing 2/4 7/23 CT 3f :35.40 breezing 1/7 ● bullet 7/8 CT 3f :39.40 breezing 8/8 3Up to the TopM. Santaella · R. BrownSantaella · Brown?3-1Fair 4-119%
—Debut?2Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 12-for-91 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R1: Monterrey 4-1, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2, R8: Market Watch 4-1 · Trainer R5: Golden Boss Man 9-2, R5: Magic On The Bay 9-5, R6: Oleg 20-1, R6: I'm Not Catty 5-2 +1 moreFirst-time starter from a barn that wins 12% of the time with them (65 tried). Debut for this Bullsbay filly, whose dam is Top Pick.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Moises Santaella from post 3 here: 7 wins, 44 top-3 in 87 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Bullsbay out of Top Pick (Outflanker)Trainer R. Brown: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 37% in the money (65 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 12% wins, 37% in the money (59 starts) · Maiden special weights: 14% wins, 45% in the money (225 starts)Jockey M. Santaella in sprints: 88 wins from 470 (19%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/21 CT 4f :48.20 breezing 1/7 ● bullet from gate 10/10 CT 4f :49.60 breezing 13/35 9/30 CT 3f :37.00 breezing 5/9 9/12 CT 3f :39.60 breezing 35/36 9/5 CT 3f :38.60 breezing 26/30 4Stella's Candy▼★V. Rodriguez · T. O'NeillRodriguez · O'NeillA57 35 53▲▲+10↕@trip 6612-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +1057 35 53 ↕@trip 66A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 66Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–57 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 35 53
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74★ Best at the trip 66Jockey V Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tonya M O'Neill 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot8/13 board hereMoves up from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden special weight. Owns the highest recent figure here at 57.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 185d back)RECORD 0 wins, 8 on the board from 13 starts hereRECORD V Rodriguez from post 4 here: 19 wins, 52 top-3 in 162 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/11 CT 6½f D fsMd12500 3rd/7 -1½L 57 7.0-1 b L Vied2w;no match;trying 8/22 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 7th/8 -10L 35 11-1 b L Save ground; no factor 8/1 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/7 -5½L 53 7.6-1 b L In tight chute;willing 5Lil Pegasus▼LSF. Peltroche · T. CollinsPeltroche · CollinsA57 44 49▲+7@trip 578-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +7 · career best57 44 49@trip 57A▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 57 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 44 49
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 74LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey F Peltroche 28% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Tim Collins 25% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)3/4 board hereBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 57, with 54 next best. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 7.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD F Peltroche from post 5 here: 13 wins, 55 top-3 in 110 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/7 -4L 57 9.6-1 L Bid3w1/8;lf-ld;willing 10/2 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 8th/9 -3½L 44 5.0-1 Slw st;7w1/8;no impact 8/22 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/8 -6L 49 2.5-1 Chased ins1/8;willing 6Malibu Candy▼▲M. Chilo · J. StehrChilo · StehrA54 53 51▲▲+8↕@trip 5412-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best54 53 51 ↕@trip 54A▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 74▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–54 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 53 51
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 74▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey Maximo Chilo 25% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Joseph P Stehr 16% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R2: Speedy Bubbles 9-5, R5: Thunder Pass 15-1, R7: Mr Mahomes 10-1, R8: Barapha 30-1 · Trainer R5: Thunder Pass 15-10 for 5 at today's distance. Maiden through 7 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)TROUBLED TRIP Angled5w1/8; flattened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 82d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Maximo Chilo from post 6 here: 8 wins, 49 top-3 in 132 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 4th/7 -5L 54 16-1 L Angled5w1/8;flattened 10/2 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/9 -1¼L 53 15-1 L Hard chase; faded str 8/22 CT 4½f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/8 -1L 51 64-1 L Frac;5w1/16;chased on
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #6 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CHARLES TOWN · RACE 3
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #2 Unifiabelle (a tactical type, M/L 1-1). Backup is #3 Up To The Top at 3-1. Use #1 Song Of Echos in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 UNIFIABELLE (1-1) — but VULNERABLE: first-time starter bet to favouritism — unproven
- #2 UNIFIABELLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (42.7% to their 40.4%).
- #3 UP TO THE TOP — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 20.2%).
- #1 SONG OF ECHOS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 18.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Malibu Candy; pressure from #4 Stella's Candy; the shape helps #4 Stella's Candy, #5 Lil Pegasus; and works against #1 Song Of Echos, #2 Unifiabelle, #3 Up To The Top.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4)
PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / PICK 6 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta