R4 Charles Town · J.E. Casy Memorial Stakes

8:32 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $75,000 · 4 runners8:32 PM · 7f Dirt · 4 runners

Upcoming $75K · J.E. Casy Memorial Stakes

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Kickin' With Caity▼A. Bocachica · A. FarriorBocachica · FarriorB53 53 52►6-1Fair 6-114%► Steady53 53 52B▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 53 53 52

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 21-for-93 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Unifiabelle 1-1 · Trainer this race: Crystal Veil 3-5, R6: From The Clouds 9-5, R8: Military Grade 9-2

2/3 board here

Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. 2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled st; willingly), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 1 here: 69 wins, 194 top-3 in 317 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	CT	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -2½L	53	4.2-1	b L	Stumbled st;willingly
9/18	CT	4½f D	fsJMcKeeMemB75k	4th/7 -4L	53	12-1	L	Vied ins1/4;faded str
8/14	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6 -6L	52	3.2-1	L	Btw 1/16;willingly shw

2On a Pedestal▼J. Montano · S. ViandsMontano · ViandsA61 55 71►5-2Fair 3-125%► Steady61 55 71A▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 772

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 61 55 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jose Montano 28% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Stacey R Viands 27% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%)

3/3 board here

Finished 2nd in a 7-horse race at CT, beaten 2½ lengths. A 71 top number against a 77 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

RECORD Jose Montano from post 2 here: 7 wins, 20 top-3 in 51 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	6½f D	fsTCNtBrdClB75k	2nd/7 -2½L	61	2.0-1	b L	3w-pursuit;willingly
9/18	CT	4½f D	fsJMcKeeMemB75k	3rd/7 -10L	55	1.1-1	b L	5w1/8;one paced show
9/10	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/6	71	1.1-1	b L	Vie3w1/4;kicked away

3A Notable Nature▼A. Lopez · R. SiglerLopez · SiglerA63 58 60▲▲+84-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best63 58 60A▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 773

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 63 58 60

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Antonio Lopez 36% career ★ 6-for-24 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 32 · Trainer Ronald G Sigler 32% career 3-for-31 on dirt this meet (10%) ★ hot

WON LAST4/7 board here

A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today. A 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 127d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Antonio Lopez from post 3 here: 9 wins, 22 top-3 in 49 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	CT	6½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/6	63	0.4-1	L	Pressured pace;driving
10/10	CT	6½f D	fsTCNtBrdClB75k	3rd/7 -7½L	58	10-1	L	Save ground;one paced
9/18	CT	4½f D	fsJMcKeeMemB75k	2nd/7 -2½L	60	9.8-1	L	Vie2w1/4;willingly plc

4Crystal Veil▲J. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA69 71 73►3-5Fair 6-544%► Steady69 71 73A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 69 71 73

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 14-for-63 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 13-for-72 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R6: From The Clouds 9-5, R8: Military Grade 9-2 · Trainer this race: Kickin' With Caity 6-1, R6: From The Clouds 9-5, R8: Military Grade 9-2

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/4 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 73, with 71 next best. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse race at CT at 1.1-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 7 (4F in :47.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 41 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	6½f D	fsTCNtBrdClB75k	Won/7	69	1.1-1	b L	Dictated tempo;driving
9/18	CT	4½f D	fsJMcKeeMemB75k	Won/7	71	1.0-1	b L	Cruised clr1/4;driving
8/14	CT	4½f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/6	73	1.8-1	b L	Unchallenged;kept2task

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #4, #2.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 4

UPCOMING

J.E. Casy Memorial Stakes

Field

4 runners

Purse

$75,000

Post

8:32 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 44%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Crystal Veil (early speed, M/L 3-5). Recent figures: 69 · 71 · 73. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 On A Pedestal at 5-2. Use #3 A Notable Nature in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 CRYSTAL VEIL (3-5) — our number agrees.
#4 CRYSTAL VEIL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (45.3% to their 49.9%).
#2 ON A PEDESTAL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.0% to their 22.8%).
#3 A NOTABLE NATURE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.0% to their 16.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Crystal Veil; pressure from #3 A Notable Nature, #2 On A Pedestal; the shape helps #1 Kickin' With Caity, #2 On A Pedestal; and works against #3 A Notable Nature, #4 Crystal Veil.

Lead

4Crystal Veil963A Notable Nature87

Press

2On A Pedestal94

Stalk

1Kickin' With Caity84

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Crystal Veil

On A Pedestal

A Notable Nature

Kickin' With Caity

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kickin' With Caity

A Notable Nature

On A Pedestal

Crystal Veil

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