Pick sheet

Race 85:00 PM Alw 35000nc

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Dynastys Girl, is 31% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Dynastys Girl ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey C. Benn · Trainer S. Mendoza · Dist 10: 1-4-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 93 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.81818f D	AQHADstfG1 G1	2nd/9 -1½L	93	20-1	b	Followed winner
9/26	LS	1.81818f D	LSDstfCh G3	2nd/8 -1L	86	7.6-1	b	Late kick;imprvd 2nd
8/20	SRR	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/8	98	1.4-1	b	Dueled;proved best

Case: Last out 2nd in the fAQHADstfG1-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 93-86-98. Best at today's distance 93. 1-for-10 at the distance. S. Mendoza / C. Benn.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #4 Nsm Flying Corona ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey L. Ramirez · Trainer C. Hunt · Dist 11: 2-0-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 85 · 77 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	PRM	1.81818f D	PrmDbyChal49k	9th/10 -2¾L	85	36-1	b LB	Failed to threaten
7/31	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	5th/6 -1¾L	79	7.8-1	b LB	Awkward start
7/6	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldDby164k	8th/10 -2L	79	27-1	b LB	Lacked a rally

Case: Last out 9th/10 -2¾L in the PrmDbyChal49k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 85-79-79. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-11 at the distance. C. Hunt / L. Ramirez.

Knock: Off 77 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Use #5 Suspicious Eyes ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -5 ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 97 Last out 8th/10 -3¼L in the fMsEllen -G3 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 81-81-80. Best at today's distance 97. 3-for-17 at the distance. J. Davis / M. Delgado. Knock: Never raced at Eureka. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey M. Delgado · Trainer J. Davis · Dist 17: 3-1-3 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 97 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.59091f D	MsEllen G3	8th/10 -3¼L	81	11-1	b L	Step slow;no threat
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	8th/9 -3½L	81	44-1	b L	Broke in;chased;faded
8/22	SWF	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	8th/9 -2¾L	80	7.6-1	b LB	Wandered;weakened

Longshot #2 Jk Double Trouble ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best ↕ Up and down 81–103

Jockey J. Valenzuela Jr. · Trainer V. Ibarra · Dist 6: 3-0-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 88 · 121 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/2	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw19500n3l	Won/8	103	4.5-1	b L	Showed speed;held sway
5/28	RP	1½f D	Alw n3l	8th/10 -2¾L	81	7.9-1	b L	Urged;empty
5/10	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -1L	88	6.7-1	b L	Sharp st;cldnt fend

Case: Last out won in the sAlw19500n3l at FMT. Last Brisnet figures 103-81-88. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-6 at the distance. V. Ibarra / J. Valenzuela Jr..

Knock: Off 121 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #2, #7, #8 · C #1, #6

Angles: #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 EUR · Allowance · $35,000 purse

5:00 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $35,000 · 8 runners5:00 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $35K · Allowance · $35,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tf Premo DashR. Garcia · E. Escamilla-GonzalezGarcia · Escamilla-GonzalezC81 84 64▲+712-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +781 84 64C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 81 84 64

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Wisp 2-1, R4: Typhoon Time 20-1, R7: Ajs Wingman 4-5 · Trainer R3: Eagle Rock Hl 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 4; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	9th/10 -2½L	81	17-1	b L	Chased;weakened
6/25	FMT	1.13636f D	Alw nc	5th/6 -3½L	84	3.5-1	b L	Little impact outside
6/11	FMT	0½f D	Alw nc	4th/5	64	3.0-1	b L	Good ttry

2Jk Double TroubleLSJ. Valenzuela Jr. · V. IbarraValenzuela Jr. · IbarraB103 81 88▲▲+19↕@trip 8812-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best103 81 88 ↕@trip 88BLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 81–103 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 81 88

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey John Raul Jr Valenzuela 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Victor Ibarra 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at FMT. 121 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/2	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw19500n3l	Won/8	103	4.5-1	b L	Showed speed;held sway
5/28	RP	1½f D	Alw n3l	8th/10 -2¾L	81	7.9-1	b L	Urged;empty
5/10	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -1L	88	6.7-1	b L	Sharp st;cldnt fend

3Dynastys GirlC. Benn · S. MendozaBenn · MendozaA93 86 98►@trip 935-2Fair 2-131%► Steady93 86 98@trip 93A1

Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 93 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 86 98

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Beautiful Angel 10-1, R3: Flame On 8-1, R4: Lonesome Dream 3-1, R9: Go Lady Bug 6-1 · Trainer R1: Beautiful Angel 10-1

Runs for $35,000 today after a $129,625 race last time. Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 231d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.81818f D	AQHADstfG1 G1	2nd/9 -1½L	93	20-1	b	Followed winner
9/26	LS	1.81818f D	LSDstfCh G3	2nd/8 -1L	86	7.6-1	b	Late kick;imprvd 2nd
8/20	SRR	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/8	98	1.4-1	b	Dueled;proved best

4Nsm Flying CoronaL. Ramirez · C. HuntRamirez · HuntA85 79 79►@trip 852-1Fair 3-125%► Steady85 79 79@trip 85A2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 79 79

Jockey Luna Luis Ramirez 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Charles R Hunt 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

The Jun 13 work, 1F in :11.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. Off 77 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 13; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	PRM	1.81818f D	PrmDbyChal49k	9th/10 -2¾L	85	36-1	b LB	Failed to threaten
7/31	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	5th/6 -1¾L	79	7.8-1	b LB	Awkward start
7/6	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldDby164k	8th/10 -2L	79	27-1	b LB	Lacked a rally

5Suspicious Eyes★M. Delgado · J. DavisDelgado · DavisA81 81 80▼-5@trip 977-2Fair 6-115%▼ Down -581 81 80@trip 97A★ Best at the trip 973

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 81 80

★ Best at the trip 97

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: First Speeding Bullet 12-1 · Trainer R1: Shes Just Innocent 5-1, this race: Famously Innocent 9-2

Mario Delgado takes over from Cody Rodger Smith in the saddle. Beaten 3¼ lengths for 8th in a 10-horse race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 239d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.59091f D	MsEllen G3	8th/10 -3¼L	81	11-1	b L	Step slow;no threat
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	8th/9 -3½L	81	44-1	b L	Broke in;chased;faded
8/22	SWF	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	8th/9 -2¾L	80	7.6-1	b LB	Wandered;weakened

6Tornado Jane▼R. Olmstead · P. SwanOlmstead · SwanC90 87 83▲+715-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +7 · career best90 87 83C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 90 87 83

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Patrick E Swan 27% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Surely Not Me 7-5, R7: Racket Ridge 2-1

Figures are climbing: 83, 87, 90 over its last three. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 205d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	3rd/7 by hd	90	7.6-1	b LB	Quick speed; weakened
8/28	PRM	1½f D	Clm 15k b	Won/8	87	2.5-1	b LB	Good speed; held well
7/24	PRM	1½f D	Clm 15k b	Won/8 by 1	83	19-1	b LB	Outside;up in time

7Honey in the RockJ. Torres · T. CrawfordTorres · CrawfordB98 92 87▲▲+9@trip 9020-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best98 92 87@trip 90B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 92 87

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R9: Sw Glitzee 8-1

Has moved up each time out, 87 to 92 to 98. 3rd last time, a head back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled at the gate), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 72d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	3rd/8 by hd	—	1.9-1	L	Stumbled at the gate
9/5	SRR	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/6	98	6.0-1	L	Caught at wire
8/27	SRR	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	2nd/4	92	1.4-1	L	Caught at the wire

8Famously InnocentA. Martinez · J. DavisMartinez · DavisB81 82 72►@trip 869-2Fair 10-19%► Steady81 82 72@trip 86B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 72

Jockey Aram S Martinez 33% career · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Shes Just Innocent 5-1 · Trainer R1: Shes Just Innocent 5-1, this race: Suspicious Eyes 7-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Worked 1F in :11.80 on Apr 26, 3rd of 36 at the distance. Purse goes from $10,000 to $35,000, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 22; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	SWF	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/9 -3L	81	44-1	b LB	Chased; no threat
7/17	WYO	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 6000	5th/8 by nk	82	10-1	b LB	Faded;
6/21	WYO	1.59091f D	Alw b	7th/10 -1¾L	72	7.5-1	b LB	Bump early; flattened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Allowance · $35,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$35,000

Post

5:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 31%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.57

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Dynastys Girl (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 93 · 86 · 98. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Nsm Flying Corona at 2-1. Use #5 Suspicious Eyes in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 NSM FLYING CORONA (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 NSM FLYING CORONA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.7% to their 25.9%).
#3 DYNASTYS GIRL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.6% to their 22.2%).
#5 SUSPICIOUS EYES — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Tf Premo Dash, #2 Jk Double Trouble, #3 Dynastys Girl.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Tf Premo Dash2Jk Double Trouble3Dynastys Girl4Nsm Flying Corona5Suspicious Eyes6Tornado Jane7Honey In The Rock8Famously Innocent

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tornado Jane

Famously Innocent

Nsm Flying Corona

Tf Premo Dash

Jk Double Trouble

Dynastys Girl

Suspicious Eyes

Honey In The Rock

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