Pick sheet

Race 43:00 PM Clm 5000n1y

4F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Stanford Holiday, is 33% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Stanford Holiday ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7 ★ Best at 4f dirt: 88 ↕ Up and down 56–84 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 84)

Jockey L. Delorme · Trainer C. McVay · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 10: 4-3-0 · best fig at 4f dirt 88 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	4f D	frClm7500	2nd/6 -1L	74	6.7-1	b LB	Lead throughout
8/15	ARP	3.95455f D	Alw b	4th/6 -2½L	84	10-1	b LB	Off rail; no rally
7/17	ARP	4½f D	Alw b	4th/6 by nk	62	6.9-1	b LB	Rail duel; weakened

Case: Last out 2nd in the frClm7500 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 74-84-62. Best at today's distance 88. 4-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. C. McVay / L. Delorme.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Awesome Outlaw ML 3-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey A. Stanley · Trainer T. Anderson · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 3: 0-2-1 · best fig at 4f dirt 57 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/8	70	12-1	LB	Even effort
10/10	FPK	6f D	Clm 5k n4l	6th/8 -13L	56	26-1	L	Bmpd brk; 4wd turn
9/15	FPK	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n4l	5th/6 -5½L	60	38-1	L	Dropped back early

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm5000n1y at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 70-56-60. Best at today's distance 57. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. T. Anderson / A. Stanley.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Sidetown ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +6 ↕ Up and down 44–77 Last out 2nd in the Clm5000n1y at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 69-44-77. Best at today's distance 69. 1-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. S. Williams / J. Medina. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey J. Medina · Trainer S. Williams · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 5: 1-1-1 · best fig at 4f dirt 69 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/4 -1L	69	1.6-1	b L	Improved ground
10/2	RP	5½f D	Clm 5k b	7th/8 -8½L	44	13-1	b L	Bmp brk;4p;tired
9/5	RP	5f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/5 -2L	77	19-1	b L	Pace; drifted;2nd best

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #7 · B #2, #3, #4 · C #1, #8

Angles: #1 Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #3 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #5 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 84)

R4 EUR · Claiming $5,000

3:00 PM ET · 4 Furlongs Dirt · $12,000 · 8 runners3:00 PM · 4f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Typhoon Time▼▼R. Garcia · R. CovarrubiasGarcia · CovarrubiasC56 57 55▲+7↕20-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +756 57 55 ↕C▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–57 · Last 3 figs 56 57 55
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Wisp 2-1, R7: Ajs Wingman 4-5, R8: Tf Premo Dash 12-1 · Trainer R7: El Paisano 8-1
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, $5,000 claiming today. Cuts back from 1320 yards to 880 yards.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 72d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 EUR 6f D MSW 4th/8 -5¼L 56 8.5-1 b L Early effort
9/24 PRM 6f D fsMd10000 4th/9 57 5.5-1 b LB Pace; reeled in late
8/29 PRM 5½f D fsMd7500 4th/10 55 14-1 b LB Led 1/4p;overtkn late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	MSW	4th/8 -5¼L	56	8.5-1	b L	Early effort
9/24	PRM	6f D	fsMd10000	4th/9	57	5.5-1	b LB	Pace; reeled in late
8/29	PRM	5½f D	fsMd7500	4th/10	55	14-1	b LB	Led 1/4p;overtkn late

2FindawayA. Ortiz · H. VillalobosOrtiz · VillalobosB62 55 61►8-1Fair 12-17%► Steady62 55 61B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 62 55 61

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Heriberto Villalobos 19% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Engagement 20-1

Last out was 3rd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 4-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 77 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 60d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BTP	5f D	Clm 5k b	3rd/4 -½L	62	3.3-1	b L	Dueled ins;weakened
9/30	BTP	6f D	Clm 5k b	5th/6 -5½L	55	28-1	b L	Press btw1/4;faded
9/10	BTP	6f D	Clm 5k n2x	4th/4 by hd	61	5.6-1	b L	Duel ins;weakened 1/8

3Bluegrass Breeze▼A. Birzer · R. CurranBirzer · CurranB69 66 62▲+6≡5-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +669 66 62 ≡B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 62–69 · Last 3 figs 69 66 62
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Randy Curran 11% career
Also today · Jockey R6: K Dog 3-1, R10: Uptown Top Shelf 3-1
CLASS UP
Has moved up each time out, 62 to 66 to 69. Shortens up to 880 yards after going 1320 yards.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 10 (4F in :48.40), 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 6f D Clm 5k n1y 3rd/8 -½L 69 12-1 LB Evenly
9/6 ATO 6f D Clm 2k n2y 4th/7 -3½L 66 7.5-1 LB Moved up 4wd
8/30 PRM 6f D Clm 5k n2y 7th/7 -8L 62 90-1 LB In back; no response

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	3rd/8 -½L	69	12-1	LB	Evenly
9/6	ATO	6f D	Clm 2k n2y	4th/7 -3½L	66	7.5-1	LB	Moved up 4wd
8/30	PRM	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	7th/7 -8L	62	90-1	LB	In back; no response

4SidetownJ. Medina · S. WilliamsMedina · WilliamsB69 44 77▲+6↕@trip 699-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +669 44 77 ↕@trip 69B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 44–77 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 44 77

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 1 · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Myth Conception 8-5, R5: R D C Posse 20-1, R6: Sunshine Sister 4-1, R10: Rich Taste Lm 4-1 · Trainer R5: R D C Posse 20-1

Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 4-horse $5,000 claiming race at EUR. 2nd of 13 at 4F on Jan 4, in :47.20.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 150d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	2nd/4 -1L	69	1.6-1	b L	Improved ground
10/2	RP	5½f D	Clm 5k b	7th/8 -8½L	44	13-1	b L	Bmp brk;4p;tired
9/5	RP	5f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/5 -2L	77	19-1	b L	Pace; drifted;2nd best

5Awesome Outlaw▼A. Stanley · T. AndersonStanley · AndersonA70 56 60▲▲+12@trip 573-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best70 56 60@trip 57A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 772
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 56 60
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tracy Anderson 33% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, R3: Painted Senor 5-2, R6: Classic Tiramisu 6-1, R10: Rv Relentless 8-1 · Trainer R2: Engagement 20-1
Back to 880 yards off a 1320 yards race. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 85).
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 6f D Clm 5k n1y 2nd/8 70 12-1 LB Even effort
10/10 FPK 6f D Clm 5k n4l 6th/8 -13L 56 26-1 L Bmpd brk; 4wd turn
9/15 FPK 1 1/16 D Clm 10k n4l 5th/6 -5½L 60 38-1 L Dropped back early

6Stanford Holiday▼★L. Delorme · C. McVayDelorme · McVayA74 84 62▲+7↕@trip 882-1Fair 2-133%▲ Up +774 84 62 ↕@trip 88A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 84)★ Best at the trip 881

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–84 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 84 62

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 84)★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cameron Simpson McVay 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Wicklow Hills 3-1, R9: Flashin Turnpike 8-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 77 next best. 4 wins from 10 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Lead throughout. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	4f D	frClm7500	2nd/6 -1L	74	6.7-1	b LB	Lead throughout
8/15	ARP	3.95455f D	Alw b	4th/6 -2½L	84	10-1	b LB	Off rail; no rally
7/17	ARP	4½f D	Alw b	4th/6 by nk	62	6.9-1	b LB	Rail duel; weakened

7Lonesome DreamC. Benn · D. HigginsBenn · HigginsA54 73 69▼▼-153-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1554 73 69A

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Last 3 figs 54 73 69

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dennis Higgins 13% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Beautiful Angel 10-1, R3: Flame On 8-1, R8: Dynastys Girl 5-2, R9: Go Lady Bug 6-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Freshened 175 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in optional claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 2d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/9	FPK	6f D	OC 10k n1x	9th/9 -8½L	54	34-1	b L	Track3p;retreated turn
10/28	FPK	6f D	sOC20000n4l	Won/6	73	9.9-1	b L	Pace;all out;lasted
10/11	FPK	6f D	sOC20000n4l	3rd/6 -3L	69	25-1	b L	Set pace; held 3rd

8Broadway AppealD. Goodface · C. StortzumGoodface · StortzumC47 43 67►↕@trip 4710-1Fair 15-16%► Steady47 43 67 ↕@trip 47C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 32–67 · Best fig at today's trip 47 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 43 67

Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cady Stortzum 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Be Bo 5-1, R6: E. L.'s Legacy 7-2 · Trainer R6: E. L.'s Legacy 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Riley Dean Seaton had it last time, Cady Stortzum now. The Oct 19 work, 3F in :37.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.80 on Oct 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	7th/7 -7¼L	47	7.2-1	b L	Outrun
9/27	RP	5f D	Clm 5k b	6th/6 -1½L	43	14-1	L	Duel inside; faltered;
8/8	PRM	5f D	Clm 5k n1y	3rd/7 -2½L	67	21-1	LB	Vied briefly;kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

3:00 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 33%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 Furlongs: 44.72

The shape is the story here: 7 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Stanford Holiday (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74 · 84 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Awesome Outlaw at 3-1. Use #4 Sidetown in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 STANFORD HOLIDAY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 STANFORD HOLIDAY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 23.3%).
#5 AWESOME OUTLAW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.5%).
#7 LONESOME DREAM — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 17.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Lonesome Dream; pressure from #2 Findaway, #3 Bluegrass Breeze; and works against #1 Typhoon Time, #2 Findaway, #3 Bluegrass Breeze.

Lead

7Lonesome Dream872Findaway853Bluegrass Breeze855Awesome Outlaw854Sidetown841Typhoon Time838Broadway Appeal

Press

6Stanford Holiday87

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Stanford Holiday

Lonesome Dream

Findaway

Bluegrass Breeze

Awesome Outlaw

Sidetown

Typhoon Time

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lonesome Dream

Findaway

Typhoon Time

Bluegrass Breeze

Sidetown

Awesome Outlaw

Stanford Holiday

Broadway Appeal

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