Pick sheet

Race 11:30 PM Md Sp Wt

1.1F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Surely Not Me, is 33% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Surely Not Me ML 7-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey R. Olmstead · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 6: 0-2-1 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 80 · 71 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	PRM	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/6 -1½L	72	0.6-1	b LB	No late impact
7/26	PRM	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -¾L	80	4.3-1	b LB	Gaining fast
6/28	PRM	1.36364f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -½L	62	0.8-1	b LB	Just missed

Case: Last out 4th/6 -1½L in the sMdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 72-80-62. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-6 at the distance. J. Olmstead / R. Olmstead.

Knock: Off 71 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #4 Wisp ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 · career best

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 9: 0-3-3 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 83 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2L	83	1.5-1	b LB	Outside;cleared show
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	6th/9 -¾L	72	4.3-1	b LB	Inside; weakened
8/20	CBY	1.59091f D	NorthlnFut59k	6th/9 -1¾L	81	18-1	b	Fractious gate;bump st

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 83-72-81. Best at today's distance 83. 0-for-9 at the distance. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka. 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #1 Corona Moon Prize ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -12 ★ Best at 1.13636f dirt: 95 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 95) Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 83-95-95. Best at today's distance 95. 0-for-3 at the distance. S. Valdivia / C. Smith. Knock: Never raced at Eureka. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer S. Valdivia · Dist 3: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 95 · 5 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/26	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	83	6.9-1	b L	Outfinished for 2nd
5/17	MC	1.13636f D	BHS Fut100k	5th/8 by nk	95	1.9-1	b LB	Drft in/out;faded late
5/2	MC	1.13636f D	FutTrl2500	2nd/7	95	2.0-1	b B	Broke sharp; missed

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #5 · B #2, #3, #6 · C #7 · ? #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 95)

R1 EUR · Maiden Special Weight

1:30 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $30,000 · 8 runners1:30 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $30K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Corona Moon Prize▼★C. Smith · S. ValdiviaSmith · ValdiviaA83 95 95▼▼-12@trip 958-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1283 95 95@trip 95A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 95)★ Best at the trip 953

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 95 95

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 95)★ Best at the trip 95

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Our Special Shake 12-1, R9: Staggerd Like Haggard 5-1 · Trainer R9: Go Lady Bug 6-1

Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now. Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 94 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/26	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	83	6.9-1	b L	Outfinished for 2nd
5/17	MC	1.13636f D	BHS Fut100k	5th/8 by nk	95	1.9-1	b LB	Drft in/out;faded late
5/2	MC	1.13636f D	FutTrl2500	2nd/7	95	2.0-1	b B	Broke sharp; missed

2Beautiful AngelC. Benn · S. MendozaBenn · MendozaB72 94 82▼▼-1610-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1672 94 82B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Last 3 figs 72 94 82

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Flame On 8-1, R4: Lonesome Dream 3-1, R8: Dynastys Girl 5-2, R9: Go Lady Bug 6-1 · Trainer R8: Dynastys Girl 5-2

Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight. Finished 7th in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD, beaten 6½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Shuffled start; outrun. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 75d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	7th/8 -6½L	72	5.2-1	b	Shuffled start;outrun
8/27	SRR	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/6 -½L	94	0.4-1	b	Never far back
3/20	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/10 by nk	82	3.2-1	b	Brshd;nvrfarbck;2ndbst

3Shes Just InnocentA. Martinez · J. DavisMartinez · DavisB79 75 70▲▲+15↕5-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best79 75 70 ↕B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–79 · Last 3 figs 79 75 70

Jockey Aram S Martinez 33% career · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Famously Innocent 9-2 · Trainer R8: Suspicious Eyes 7-2, R8: Famously Innocent 9-2

Has moved up each time out, 70 to 75 to 79. Aram S Martinez takes over from Edwin G Escobedo in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/10	79	6.7-1	b L	Dueled;game;missed
6/13	WYO	1.36364f D	FutTrl5500	6th/10 -½L	75	4.3-1	b LB	Faded
5/2	RP	1½f D	MCL 20k	4th/10 -1½L	70	18-1	b L	Dueled behind leaders

4WispR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA83 72 81▲+5@trip 832-1Fair 5-227%▲ Up +5 · career best83 72 81@trip 83A2

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 72 81

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Typhoon Time 20-1, R7: Ajs Wingman 4-5, R8: Tf Premo Dash 12-1 · Trainer this race: Surely Not Me 7-5, R7: Racket Ridge 2-1, R7: Ajs Wingman 4-5

Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at PRM. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 233d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2L	83	1.5-1	b LB	Outside;cleared show
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	6th/9 -¾L	72	4.3-1	b LB	Inside; weakened
8/20	CBY	1.59091f D	NorthlnFut59k	6th/9 -1¾L	81	18-1	b	Fractious gate;bump st

5Surely Not MeR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadA72 80 62►@trip 807-5Fair 2-133%► Steady72 80 62@trip 80A1

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 80 62

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Racket Ridge 2-1, R8: Tornado Jane 15-1 · Trainer this race: Wisp 2-1, R7: Racket Ridge 2-1, R7: Ajs Wingman 4-5

60D LAYOFF

Maiden through 6 starts. 0 for 6 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 200d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	PRM	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/6 -1½L	72	0.6-1	b LB	No late impact
7/26	PRM	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -¾L	80	4.3-1	b LB	Gaining fast
6/28	PRM	1.36364f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/6 -½L	62	0.8-1	b LB	Just missed

6RaceherJ. Rodriguez · K. WarrenRodriguez · WarrenB81 66 77▲▲+8@trip 7515-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best81 66 77@trip 75B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 66 77

Jockey Jose Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kayla Warren 35% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R5: Wicklow Hills 3-1

60D LAYOFF

A 64-day gap since its last race. A step up in company: stakes before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	ELK	1.59091f D	FutTrl2000	5th/6 -2½L	81	8.1-1	b LB	Away step slow
6/28	ARP	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -1L	66	6.7-1	b LB	Even bid throughout
5/16	MC	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -¾L	77	4.7-1	b B	Broke well;shifted in

7Braggin LadyJ. Cardenas · P. Andazola Jr.Cardenas · Andazola Jr.C4312-1Fair 20-14%—43C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 43
Jockey Jacob Cardenas 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Pedro Jr Andazola 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Paint My Star 3-1, R9: Ds Princess 12-1
Beaten 3½ lengths for 7th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EUR.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 31d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1½f D MSW 7th/8 -3½L — 9.9-1 b B Never fired
8/14 ARP 1½f D MSW 9th/9 -5L 43 12-1 b B Never involved
8Painted Pretty NowA. Stanley · C. RutlandStanley · Rutland?12-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Clifford Rutland 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Painted Senor 5-2, R4: Awesome Outlaw 3-1, R6: Classic Tiramisu 6-1, R10: Rv Relentless 8-1 · Trainer R3: Flame On 8-1, R3: Paint My Star 3-1
Debut for this Painted Dash filly, whose dam is Go For It Now. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 3.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back
Last three races
First start. By Painted Dash out of Go For It Now (I Want It Now)
Jockey A. Stanley in sprints: 39 wins from 330 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/3 WRD 1f :12.40 handily 12/18 from gate
9/5 WRD 1f :13.20 handily 24/26 from gate
8/20 WRD 1f :12.40 handily 25/40

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	MSW	7th/8 -3½L	—	9.9-1	b B	Never fired
8/14	ARP	1½f D	MSW	9th/9 -5L	43	12-1	b B	Never involved

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/3	WRD	1f	:12.40	handily	12/18	from gate
9/5	WRD	1f	:13.20	handily	24/26	from gate
8/20	WRD	1f	:12.40	handily	25/40

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$30,000

Post

1:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 33%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 13.34

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Surely Not Me (a tactical type, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 72 · 80 · 62. Backup is #4 Wisp at 2-1. Use #1 Corona Moon Prize in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SURELY NOT ME (7-5) — our number agrees.
#5 SURELY NOT ME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.9% to their 31.2%).
#4 WISP — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.3% to their 25.0%).
#3 SHES JUST INNOCENT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 12.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 CORONA MOON PRIZE (8-1) — our fair 9.8% is above the morning line's 8.3%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Corona Moon Prize, #2 Beautiful Angel, #3 Shes Just Innocent.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Corona Moon Prize2Beautiful Angel3Shes Just Innocent4Wisp5Surely Not Me6Raceher7Braggin Lady8Painted Pretty Now

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Wisp

Surely Not Me

Corona Moon Prize

Beautiful Angel

Shes Just Innocent

Raceher

Braggin Lady

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