Pick sheet

Race 74:30 PM Stk 75kLate Pick 4 starts

1.8F · Dirt · 5 entered. Our model's top pick, Ajs Wingman, is 60% to win (morning line implies 46%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Ajs Wingman ML 4-5 Fair 3-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4 ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 101

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 15: 5-4-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 101 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	Won/8	99	2.7-1	b L	Drifted late;held well
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/8	98	1.3-1	b L	Steady urging;
7/11	ALB	2f D	INS	2nd/10 -1L	97	3.7-1	b L	Bid; 2 nd best

Case: Last out won in the AllAmerInv100k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 99-98-97. Best at today's distance 101. 5-for-15 at the distance. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #4 Racket Ridge ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -8

Jockey R. Olmstead · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 16: 3-4-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 98 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.81818f D	AQHADbyG3 G3	7th/10 -2½L	87	4.4-1	b L	No rally
9/28	WRD	1.81818f D	WRDDbyChal30k	2nd/9 -½L	98	7.3-1	b L	Chased;game;missed
9/15	WRD	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 5000	3rd/10 -½L	96	3.7-1	b L	Up close;outkicked

Case: Last out 7th/10 -2½L in the AQHADbyG3-G3 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 87-98-96. Best at today's distance 98. 3-for-16 at the distance. J. Olmstead / R. Olmstead.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 El Paisano ML 8-1 Fair 15-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 Last out 2nd in the OC15000 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 88-90-82. 2-for-5 at the distance. R. Covarrubias / G. Estrada. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.36364f). Off 63 days.

Jockey G. Estrada · Trainer R. Covarrubias · Dist 5: 2-2-0 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	PRM	1.36364f D	OC 15k	2nd/6	88	4.0-1	LB	Vied; outfinished
8/1	PRM	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	Won/10	90	3.7-1	LB	Duel; just up
6/20	PRM	1.36364f D	MCL 12k	Won/5 by hd	82	1.8-1	B	Edged away

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #1, #2

R7 EUR · State-Bred Stakes · $75,000 purse

4:30 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $75,000 · 5 runners4:30 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 5 runners

Upcoming $75K · State-Bred Stakes · $75,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1El PaisanoG. Estrada · R. CovarrubiasEstrada · CovarrubiasB88 90 82▲+78-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +788 90 82B3
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 88 90 82
Jockey Giovany Estrada 24% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias 25% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R4: Typhoon Time 20-1
60D LAYOFF
A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes nongraded today. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 13d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/29 PRM 1.36364f D OC 15k 2nd/6 88 4.0-1 LB Vied; outfinished
8/1 PRM 1.36364f D Clm 15k n2l Won/10 90 3.7-1 LB Duel; just up
6/20 PRM 1.36364f D MCL 12k Won/5 by hd 82 1.8-1 B Edged away

2Baja LightsG. Valles Jr. · J. Hernandez-MartinezValles Jr. · Hernandez-MartinezB88 89 80▲▲+11↕15-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +1188 89 80 ↕B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–89 · Last 3 figs 88 89 80

Jockey Gonzalo R Jr Valles 21% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez

Also today · Jockey R9: Chickenmini 3-1 · Trainer R2: Stroll With Class 8-1

WON LAST

Winner of a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at EUR last time. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 23d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	1.36364f D	Clm 7k n3l	Won/6 by ns	88	3.8-1	b B	Dueled;held on for win
7/5	PRM	1.13636f D	MCL 12k	Won/7 by ½	89	1.1-1	b LB	Drew clear
6/13	PRM	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/8 -1¼L	80	62-1	b LB	Squeezed back start

3CanelosecretE. Esqueda · A. FelixEsqueda · FelixA67 81 97▼▼-236-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2367 81 97A
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · Last 3 figs 67 81 97
Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Abraham Felix 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Stroll With Class 8-1, R3: Dash N Possumjet 7-2
New trainer: Jose Lionel Marquez had it last time, Abraham Felix now. Gets a new rider, Erik N Esqueda replacing Gallegos Juan Rosales.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 151d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 PRM 0½f D Alw nc 3rd/6 67 19-1 b LB Cleared show
8/15 ARP 0½f D Alw nc Won/6 — 1.8-1 b LB Sharp effort;
7/31 ARP 0½f D Alw n3l Won/7 — 11-1 b LB Hand ridden

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	PRM	0½f D	Alw nc	3rd/6	67	19-1	b LB	Cleared show
8/15	ARP	0½f D	Alw nc	Won/6	—	1.8-1	b LB	Sharp effort;
7/31	ARP	0½f D	Alw n3l	Won/7	—	11-1	b LB	Hand ridden

4Racket RidgeR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadA87 98 96▼▼-8@trip 982-1Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -887 98 96@trip 98A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 98 96

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Surely Not Me 7-5, R8: Tornado Jane 15-1 · Trainer R1: Wisp 2-1, R1: Surely Not Me 7-5, this race: Ajs Wingman 4-5

Runs for $75,000 today after a $178,875 race last time. Ryder Olmstead takes over from Francisco J Ramirez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 105d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.81818f D	AQHADbyG3 G3	7th/10 -2½L	87	4.4-1	b L	No rally
9/28	WRD	1.81818f D	WRDDbyChal30k	2nd/9 -½L	98	7.3-1	b L	Chased;game;missed
9/15	WRD	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 5000	3rd/10 -½L	96	3.7-1	b L	Up close;outkicked

5Ajs Wingman★R. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA99 98 97▲+4@trip 1014-5Fair 3-560%▲ Up +499 98 97@trip 101A★ Best at the trip 1011
Card model 60% · Fair odds 3-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 98 97
★ Best at the trip 101
Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Wisp 2-1, R4: Typhoon Time 20-1, R8: Tf Premo Dash 12-1 · Trainer R1: Wisp 2-1, R1: Surely Not Me 7-5, this race: Racket Ridge 2-1
WON LAST
Tops the field on speed figures, a 99 against 98 for the next best. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse race at ALB at 2.7-1.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Feb 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 ALB 2f D AllAmerInv100k Won/8 99 2.7-1 b L Drifted late;held well
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 Won/8 98 1.3-1 b L Steady urging;
7/11 ALB 2f D INS 2nd/10 -1L 97 3.7-1 b L Bid; 2 nd best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Stakes · $75,000 purse

Field

5 runners

Purse

$75,000

Post

4:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 60%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.57

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Ajs Wingman (a tactical type, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 99 · 98 · 97. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Racket Ridge at 2-1. Use #1 El Paisano in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 AJS WINGMAN (4-5) — our number agrees.
#5 AJS WINGMAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (49.0% to their 46.1%).
#4 RACKET RIDGE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 27.7%).
#3 CANELOSECRET — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.0% to their 11.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 El Paisano, #2 Baja Lights, #3 Canelosecret.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1El Paisano2Baja Lights3Canelosecret4Racket Ridge5Ajs Wingman

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Canelosecret

El Paisano

Baja Lights

Racket Ridge

Ajs Wingman

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