Pick sheet

Race 32:30 PM Md Sp WtEarly Pick 4 starts

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Painted Senor, is 28% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Painted Senor ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1

Jockey A. Stanley · Trainer J. Rutland · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	sAlw25000n2l	2nd/5 -1L	—	4.2-1	B	Second best

Case: Last out 2nd in the sAlw25000n2l at EUR. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Rutland / A. Stanley.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Contender #6 Paint My Star ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 1st-time blinkers

Jockey J. Cardenas · Trainer C. Rutland · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	sAlw25000n2l	3rd/5 -1¾L	—	5.8-1	B	Even effort

Case: Last out 3rd in the sAlw25000n2l at EUR. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. C. Rutland / J. Cardenas.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Use #8 Dash N Possumjet ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 Last out 4th/5 -2¾L in the sAlw25000n2l at EUR. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Rutland / E. Esqueda. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Jockey E. Esqueda · Trainer J. Rutland · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	sAlw25000n2l	4th/5 -2¾L	—	4.0-1	B	First time starter

Longshot #3 Our Special Shake ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 1.59091f dirt: 73

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer S. Capps · Dist 6: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 73 · 104 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -2L	68	6.4-1	b L	No troubles rail
10/28	WRD	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	5th/10 -1¼L	73	6.5-1	b L	Chased evenly outside
9/16	WRD	1½f D	MCL 10k	4th/10 -2½L	73	7.6-1	b L	Brsh st;no match top 3

Case: Last out 3rd in the Md10000 at FMT. Last Brisnet figures 68-73-73. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-6 at the distance. S. Capps / C. Smith.

Knock: Off 104 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #7 · ? #1, #2, #4, #6, #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R3 EUR · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

2:30 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $30,000 · 8 runners2:30 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $30K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Our Special Shake (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 73 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1The TrainstopR. Raudales · J. EckRaudales · Eck?8-1Fair 8-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Rolando Raudales 29% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jake Eck 14% career
First career start, by Freighttrain B out of Most Delightful Way. It was the fastest 1F work of its morning on Sep 11 (:11.60).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 11 (1F in :11.60), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Freighttrain B out of Most Delightful Way (One Famous Eagle)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/7 EUR 1f :12.00 breezing 2/5
9/11 WRD 1f :11.60 handily 1/7 ● bullet from gate
5/13 RP 1f :12.80 handily 9/11
4/26 RP 1f :12.80 handily 12/21 from gate
3/4 RP 1.13636f :13.80 handily 10/73 from gate
2Flame onC. Benn · C. RutlandBenn · Rutland?8-1Fair 8-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Clifford Rutland 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Beautiful Angel 10-1, R4: Lonesome Dream 3-1, R8: Dynastys Girl 5-2, R9: Go Lady Bug 6-1 · Trainer R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, this race: Paint My Star 3-1
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Sep 26). Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Painted Dash and Pacifio Streak breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back
Last three races
First start. By Painted Dash out of Pacifio Streak (Ten Streaks)
Jockey C. Benn in sprints: 3 wins from 16 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 EUR 1f :11.40 breezing 4/7
9/26 WRD 1f :12.80 handily 17/18 from gate
9/6 WRD 1f :12.40 handily 4/10 from gate
8/20 WRD 1f :12.40 handily 27/40

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/7	EUR	1f	:12.00	breezing	2/5
9/11	WRD	1f	:11.60	handily	1/7	● bullet from gate
5/13	RP	1f	:12.80	handily	9/11
4/26	RP	1f	:12.80	handily	12/21	from gate
3/4	RP	1.13636f	:13.80	handily	10/73	from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	EUR	1f	:11.40	breezing	4/7
9/26	WRD	1f	:12.80	handily	17/18	from gate
9/6	WRD	1f	:12.40	handily	4/10	from gate
8/20	WRD	1f	:12.40	handily	27/40

3Our Special Shake★LSC. Smith · S. CappsSmith · CappsA68 73 73►@trip 7312-1Fair 12-18%► Steady68 73 73@trip 73A★ Best at the trip 73LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 73

★ Best at the trip 73LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Corona Moon Prize 8-1, R9: Staggerd Like Haggard 5-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 104 days. Watch how its recent works look. Moves up from maiden claiming $10,000 to maiden special weight.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -2L	68	6.4-1	b L	No troubles rail
10/28	WRD	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	5th/10 -1¼L	73	6.5-1	b L	Chased evenly outside
9/16	WRD	1½f D	MCL 10k	4th/10 -2½L	73	7.6-1	b L	Brsh st;no match top 3

4Painted SenorA. Stanley · J. RutlandStanley · Rutland?5-2Fair 5-228%——?1
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jeffrey T Rutland 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, R4: Awesome Outlaw 3-1, R6: Classic Tiramisu 6-1, R10: Rv Relentless 8-1 · Trainer this race: Dash N Possumjet 7-2
Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 5-horse allowance race at EUR.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1½f D sAlw25000n2l 2nd/5 -1L — 4.2-1 B Second best
5Eagle Rock HlO. Jaquez · E. Escamilla-GonzalezJaquez · Escamilla-GonzalezA20@trip 2020-1Fair 50-12%—20@trip 20A
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 20 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 20
Jockey Oscar Jaquez 15% career · Trainer Everardo N Escamilla-Gonzalez 21% career
Also today · Trainer R8: Tf Premo Dash 12-1
60D LAYOFF
Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Back after 134 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 20d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/19 FMT 1.59091f D MCL 10k 10th/10 -13L 20 34-1 L Veered in start
4/25 RP 1.13636f D MCL 10k 10th/10 -9½L — 41-1 L Green journey
6Paint My StarJ. Cardenas · C. RutlandCardenas · Rutland?3-1Fair 7-221%——?2
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Jacob Cardenas 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Clifford Rutland 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Braggin Lady 12-1, R9: Ds Princess 12-1 · Trainer R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, this race: Flame On 8-1
Jacob Cardenas takes over from Luis Luna Ramirez in the saddle. Finished 3rd in a 5-horse allowance race at EUR, beaten 1¾ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1½f D sAlw25000n2l 3rd/5 -1¾L — 5.8-1 B Even effort

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/19	FMT	1.59091f D	MCL 10k	10th/10 -13L	20	34-1	L	Veered in start
4/25	RP	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	10th/10 -9½L	—	41-1	L	Green journey

7Can U Paint▼R. Migues · P. MonroeMigues · MonroeA60 75 54▼-6@trip 6812-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -660 75 54@trip 68A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 75 54

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Rhett Migues 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Patrick Monroe

60D LAYOFF

New trainer: David Ridgeway had it last time, Patrick Monroe now. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 75, with 73 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Brk out; brush; bothered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.1F on Jun 11; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	MCL 15k	9th/9 -3¾L	60	10-1	b L	Brk out;brush;bothered
6/19	FMT	1.36364f D	MSW	7th/8 -4½L	75	15-1	b L	No factor outside
5/18	RP	1.81818f D	MSW	10th/10 -5¾L	54	75-1	b L	Crowded at break

8Dash N PossumjetE. Esqueda · J. RutlandEsqueda · Rutland?7-2Fair 6-115%——?3
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Erik N Esqueda 29% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jeffrey T Rutland 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Stroll With Class 8-1, R7: Canelosecret 6-1 · Trainer this race: Painted Senor 5-2
Jockey switch: Jorge Torres last out, Erik N Esqueda today. 4th last time, 2¾ lengths back, in a field of 5.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1½f D sAlw25000n2l 4th/5 -2¾L — 4.0-1 B First time starter

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 3

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$30,000

Post

2:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 28%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.32

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Painted Senor (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Paint My Star at 3-1. Use #8 Dash N Possumjet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 PAINTED SENOR (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 PAINTED SENOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.4% to their 24.2%).
#6 PAINT MY STAR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 21.2%).
#8 DASH N POSSUMJET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 18.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 The Trainstop, #2 Flame On, #3 Our Special Shake.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1The Trainstop2Flame On3Our Special Shake4Painted Senor5Eagle Rock Hl6Paint My Star7Can U Paint8Dash N Possumjet

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Our Special Shake

Can U Paint

Painted Senor

Eagle Rock Hl

Paint My Star

Dash N Possumjet

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