Pick sheet

Race 95:30 PM Alw 25000n2l

1.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Chickenmini, is 23% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Chickenmini ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1

Jockey G. Valles Jr. · Trainer J. Escobedo · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 81 · 12 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 -¾L	76	8.3-1		Close up;flattened out
9/22	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/9 by ½	81	7.8-1		Off step slow;rallied

Case: Last out 4th/8 -¾L in the Alw12450n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 76-81. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-2 at the distance. J. Escobedo / G. Valles Jr..

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #7 Staggerd Like Haggard ML 5-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best ↕ Up and down 62–89

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer M. Whitekiller · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 89 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	89	2.7-1	b LB	Finished strong
10/4	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/9 -1L	85	9.8-1	b L	Stp slw;sustained bid
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl4000	6th/6 -4L	75	11-1	b L	Off pace;no rally

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 89-85-75. Best at today's distance 89. 1-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. M. Whitekiller / C. Smith.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Go Lady Bug ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best Last out won in the Md10000 at FMT. Last Brisnet figures 81-63-64. Best at today's distance 73. 1-for-5 at the distance. S. Valdivia / C. Benn. Knock: Off 140 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Jockey C. Benn · Trainer S. Valdivia · Dist 5: 1-2-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 73 · 140 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	Won/9 by 2	81	0.6-1	b L	Bobbled st;rallied
5/1	RP	1½f D	MCL 30k	7th/10 -1½L	63	6.9-1	b L	Dueled;driftd in;eased
4/11	RP	1.36364f D	MCL 30k	2nd/10 by ns	64	1.7-1	b L	In concert; edged

Longshot #5 Flashin Turnpike ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #5 ▲ Up +6 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (79 vs 84)

Jockey L. Delorme · Trainer E. Webb · Dist 6: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 84 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	8th/10 -1½L	79	16-1	b L	Crowded st;flattened
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/7 -1¾L	84	21-1	b L	Slight bother early
5/29	RP	1½f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -1¾L	69	32-1	b L	Cldnt produce rally

Case: Last out 8th/10 -1½L in the Alw12900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 79-84-69. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-6 at the distance. E. Webb / L. Delorme.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #7 · B #3, #4, #6 · C #2, #8

Angles: #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (79 vs 84)

R9 EUR · Allowance · $25,000 purse

5:30 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $25,000 · 8 runners5:30 PM · 1½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $25K · Allowance · $25,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1ChickenminiG. Valles Jr. · J. EscobedoValles Jr. · EscobedoA76 81@trip 813-1Fair 7-224%—76 81@trip 81A1
Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 81
Jockey Gonzalo R Jr Valles 21% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jesus Munoz Escobedo 19% career
Also today · Jockey R7: Baja Lights 15-1
Moves up from allowance to allowance. Changes barns, from Jose Hernandez-Martinez to Jesus Munoz Escobedo.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 46d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/19 WRD 1.59091f D Alw n2l 4th/8 -¾L 76 8.3-1 Close up;flattened out
9/22 WRD 1.36364f D MSW Won/9 by ½ 81 7.8-1 Off step slow;rallied

2Sw GlitzeeJ. Torres · M. WhitekillerTorres · WhitekillerC75 74 78▲▲+9↕@trip 788-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +975 74 78 ↕@trip 78C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 74 78

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Honey In The Rock 20-1 · Trainer this race: Staggerd Like Haggard 5-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at FMT last time. Back after 114 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/9	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	Won/10 by ½	75	7.7-1	b L	Broke in;surged late
5/22	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/10 by hd	74	4.4-1	b L	Engaged; denied
4/24	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -1¼L	78	35-1	b L	Early duel; empty

3Peace Out HomiesG. Gutierrez · T. AlexanderGutierrez · AlexanderB69 69 69►≡@trip 704-1Fair 8-111%► Steady69 69 69 ≡@trip 70B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–69 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 69 69

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Trent Alexander 21% career

Raises its level, stakes last time and allowance now. 7th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled st; faded last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 253d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	7th/7 -3¾L	69	49-1	b L	Stumbled st;faded
9/24	LS	1½f D	Stk 17.6000k	7th/8 -5L	69	34-1	b L	No menace
8/6	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/8 -4L	69	42-1	b L	Bumped no threat

4Ds PrincessJ. Cardenas · B. GuzmanCardenas · GuzmanB64 94 96▼▼-31@trip 9612-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -3164 94 96@trip 96B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -31 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 94 96

Jockey Jacob Cardenas 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Brenda Guzman 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Braggin Lady 12-1, R3: Paint My Star 3-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 96. Trending the wrong way on speed, 96 to 94 to 64.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 94d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	FTP	1.13636f D	FNL	5th/5 -4L	64	4.2-1	b L	Broke in; no bid
9/25	SWF	1f D	Alw nc	2nd/10 by hd	94	4.8-1	b LB	Bmpd; just missed
8/2	WYO	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10 by hd	96	21-1	b LB	Veer in;duel;good fnsh

5Flashin Turnpike▼LSL. Delorme · E. WebbDelorme · WebbA79 84 69▲+6@trip 848-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +679 84 69@trip 84A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (79 vs 84)LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 84 69

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (79 vs 84)LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 10%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Edward L Webb 14% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Stanford Holiday 2-1, R5: Wicklow Hills 3-1

A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 40d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	8th/10 -1½L	79	16-1	b L	Crowded st;flattened
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/7 -1¾L	84	21-1	b L	Slight bother early
5/29	RP	1½f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -1¾L	69	32-1	b L	Cldnt produce rally

6Go Lady BugC. Benn · S. ValdiviaBenn · ValdiviaB81 63 64▲▲+14@trip 736-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best81 63 64@trip 73B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 63 64

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Beautiful Angel 10-1, R3: Flame On 8-1, R4: Lonesome Dream 3-1, R8: Dynastys Girl 5-2 · Trainer R1: Corona Moon Prize 8-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST

140 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Won last out in a 9-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at FMT.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled st; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	Won/9 by 2	81	0.6-1	b L	Bobbled st;rallied
5/1	RP	1½f D	MCL 30k	7th/10 -1½L	63	6.9-1	b L	Dueled;driftd in;eased
4/11	RP	1.36364f D	MCL 30k	2nd/10 by ns	64	1.7-1	b L	In concert; edged

7Staggerd Like HaggardC. Smith · M. WhitekillerSmith · WhitekillerA89 85 75▲▲+15↕@trip 895-1Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best89 85 75 ↕@trip 89A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 85 75

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Corona Moon Prize 8-1, R3: Our Special Shake 12-1 · Trainer this race: Sw Glitzee 8-1

WON LAST

Figures are climbing: 75, 85, 89 over its last three. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EUR at 2.7-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 60d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	89	2.7-1	b LB	Finished strong
10/4	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/9 -1L	85	9.8-1	b L	Stp slw;sustained bid
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl4000	6th/6 -4L	75	11-1	b L	Off pace;no rally

8First Speeding BulletM. Delgado · J. RuizDelgado · RuizC69 81 75▼-6@trip 8112-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -669 81 75@trip 81C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 81 75

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career · Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Suspicious Eyes 7-2

Jockey switch: Rolando Raudales last out, Mario Delgado today. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 67d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	7th/8 -3¼L	69	23-1	b L	Erratic;no factor
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	Trial	Won/8	81	1.4-1	b L	Took command;easily
6/26	FMT	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/6 -1½L	75	5.3-1	b L	Up close;outkicked

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $25,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

5:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 24%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.49

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Chickenmini (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 76 · 81. Backup is #7 Staggerd Like Haggard at 5-1. Use #6 Go Lady Bug in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 CHICKENMINI (3-1) — our number agrees.
#1 CHICKENMINI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.0%).
#7 STAGGERD LIKE HAGGARD — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.2%, they've got 14.7%.
#3 PEACE OUT HOMIES — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 STAGGERD LIKE HAGGARD — we make it 17.2%, the morning line works out to 14.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Chickenmini, #2 Sw Glitzee, #3 Peace Out Homies.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Chickenmini2Sw Glitzee3Peace Out Homies4Ds Princess5Flashin Turnpike6Go Lady Bug7Staggerd Like Haggard8First Speeding Bullet

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sw Glitzee

Chickenmini

Peace Out Homies

Ds Princess

Flashin Turnpike

Go Lady Bug

Staggerd Like Haggard

First Speeding Bullet

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Bet types

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