Pick sheet

Race 85:00 PM Clm 25000

7F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Palace Guard, is 34% to win (morning line implies 32%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Palace Guard ML 8-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4 · career best ≡ Steady 81–88 ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86

Jockey N. Haar · Trainer T. Gleason · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 7f dirt 85 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	PRM	6f D	sDJhnsnSprB100k	4th/8 -7L	88	2.6-1	B	3wd str bid;late imprv
9/11	PRM	6f D	sAlw55589nc	Won/5 by 5	87	13-1	LB	Off pc;4wd bid;gamely
8/21	PRM	6f D	sAlw35000s	Won/6 by 4	84	2.3-1	LB	5wd;swept by;in hand

Case: Last out 4th/8 -7L in the sDJhnsnSprB100k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 88-87-84. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-1 at the distance. T. Gleason / N. Haar.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #7 All About Mischief ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 81–82 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J. Medina · Trainer R. Parsons · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	6f D	OC 15k n1x	2nd/8 -3L	81	1.5-1	LB	3wd bid;second best
9/13	PRM	6f D	RHP 45-75	2nd/7 -2½L	82	4.1-1	LB	Vied early;flatn;rebid
9/4	PRM	6f D	Clm 10k n3l	Won/5	82	0.5-1	LB	Bid 3wd 3/16;going awy

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC15000n1x at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 81-82-82. R. Parsons / J. Medina.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Use #2 Title Contender ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +20 ↕ Up and down 47–76 Last out won in the Alw26000n3l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 76-47-62. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. B. Birzer / A. Birzer. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer B. Birzer · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Alw n3l	Won/6 by 1½	76	2.9-1	b LB	Hustled in stretch
9/20	PRM	1 1/16 D	OC 15k n1x	6th/6 -19L	47	31-1	b LB	Stalk pce;empty far tn
9/6	PRM	6f D	Alw n2y	4th/4 -12L	62	21-1	b LB	Savd grnd;no threat

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #7 · B #1, #3, #5 · C #4

Angles: #3 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #4 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #5 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 Last fig 88 at/above par 86 · #7 Lone speed on early pace

R8 EUR · Claiming $25,000

5:00 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $32,000 · 7 runners5:00 PM · 7f Dirt · 7 runners

Official $32K · Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ez FitzRan 3rdD. Aguilar · M. EsquibelAguilar · EsquibelB77 81 73►≡@trip 836-1Fair 8-110%► Steady77 81 73 ≡@trip 83B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 73–82 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 81 73

Jockey Daniel Aguilar 30% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mark Esquibel 18% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Holiday Fantasy 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

A step up in company: allowance before, $25,000 claiming today. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 163d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	5½f D	Alw s	2nd/6	77	3.6-1	b LB	Dueled
9/7	ATO	6f D	Warhorse18k	2nd/5 -½L	81	7.5-1	b LB	Inside bid; just miss
8/16	ARP	1⅛m D	BGlesnClsc30k	5th/11 -3½L	73	26-1	b LB	2w2nd;railbid;imprvd

2Title ContenderRan 7thA. Birzer · B. BirzerBirzer · BirzerA76 47 62▲▲+20↕5-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +2076 47 62 ↕A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–76 · Last 3 figs 76 47 62

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ambrose 7-2, R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, R6: Hurts So Good 5-2, R10: Uptown Trumpthess 4-1 · Trainer R1: Ambrose 7-2, R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, this race: Helado 8-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse allowance race at EUR at 2.9-1. A 76 is the high figure lately, short of the 86 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 226 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Alw n3l	Won/6 by 1½	76	2.9-1	b LB	Hustled in stretch
9/20	PRM	1 1/16 D	OC 15k n1x	6th/6 -19L	47	31-1	b LB	Stalk pce;empty far tn
9/6	PRM	6f D	Alw n2y	4th/4 -12L	62	21-1	b LB	Savd grnd;no threat

3Pops Reward▼Ran 1stC. Alvarado · T. GleasonAlvarado · GleasonB70 73 71►≡12-1Fair 20-15%► Steady70 73 71 ≡B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Last 3 figs 70 73 71

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tyrone Gleason 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, R7: Miss Dixie Belle 20-1 · Trainer R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, this race: Palace Guard 8-5

Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $25,000 claiming. A longer trip: 4 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	4f D	frClm7500	4th/6 -2L	70	3.1-1	LB	No factor
9/11	PRM	6f D	Clm 10k n2y	Won/7 by 1¼	73	6.8-1	LB	2wd;5p3/16p;willingly
8/14	PRM	1m D	Clm 7k b	Won/5	71	1.7-1	LB	Move 1/2p;pullefd away

4Bureaucratic▼Ran 6thD. Alvarez Jr. · J. Hernandez-MartinezAlvarez Jr. · Hernandez-MartinezC62 60 45▲▲+815-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +862 60 45C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 62 60 45

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey David Jr Alvarez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez

Also today · Jockey R4: Pokey 15-1, R5: Shesa Sweetie Kat 7-2 · Trainer R2: Green Lucky Cowboy 12-1, R3: Shesa Kats Meow 2-1, R3: Atomic 20-1

60D LAYOFF

New trainer: Jose Ibarra had it last time, Jose Hernandez-Martinez now. Has moved up each time out, 45 to 60 to 62.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 2d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	PRM	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n3l	6th/7 -10L	62	34-1	LB	In back;3-4wd 3/16p
8/14	PRM	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k n3l	7th/8 -12L	60	94-1	LB	Failed to menace
7/30	PRM	1m D	Clm 10k n3l	7th/7 -12L	45	42-1	LB	Pressured pc;retreated

5Helado▼Ran 5thD. Goodface · B. BirzerGoodface · BirzerB64 65 81▼▼-98-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -964 65 81B▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 64 65 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Perscripture 10-1, R7: Hope Restored 10-1 · Trainer R1: Ambrose 7-2, R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, this race: Title Contender 5-1
Figures have slipped: 81, 65, 64 over its last three. Turns back in 7 days.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 15d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 EUR 4f D Clm 12k 5th/8 -5L 64 2.0-1 LB Faded
9/4 PRM 5½f D Alw n1x 5th/6 -8L 65 9.5-1 LB Saved grnd;no threat
7/26 PRM 5½f D sAlw47349n1x Won/7 81 18-1 LB Pace;inside;pulled awy

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	4f D	Clm 12k	5th/8 -5L	64	2.0-1	LB	Faded
9/4	PRM	5½f D	Alw n1x	5th/6 -8L	65	9.5-1	LB	Saved grnd;no threat
7/26	PRM	5½f D	sAlw47349n1x	Won/7	81	18-1	LB	Pace;inside;pulled awy

6Palace Guard▲Ran 2ndN. Haar · T. GleasonHaar · GleasonA88 87 84▲+4≡@trip 858-5Fair 2-134%▲ Up +4 · career best88 87 84 ≡@trip 85A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 861

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 81–88 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 87 84

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86

Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Tyrone Gleason 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Tall Cool One 5-2, R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1, R10: Like Moulin Rouge 15-1 · Trainer R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, this race: Pops Reward 12-1

LASIX 1ST

Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 83 for the next best. Runs for $32,000 today after a $100,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	PRM	6f D	sDJhnsnSprB100k	4th/8 -7L	88	2.6-1	B	3wd str bid;late imprv
9/11	PRM	6f D	sAlw55589nc	Won/5 by 5	87	13-1	LB	Off pc;4wd bid;gamely
8/21	PRM	6f D	sAlw35000s	Won/6 by 4	84	2.3-1	LB	5wd;swept by;in hand

7All About Mischief▲Ran 4thJ. Medina · R. ParsonsMedina · ParsonsA81 82 82►≡3-1Fair 7-223%► Steady81 82 82 ≡A▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–82 · Last 3 figs 81 82 82

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 6 · Trainer Riley Parsons 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Whip 15-1, R4: K K's First Dance 20-1, R6: Shake Up 7-2, R7: Mamie D 2-1 · Trainer R1: Tall Cool One 5-2

Worked 4F in :47.60 on Jun 19, 2nd of 20 at the distance. 2nd last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 135d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	6f D	OC 15k n1x	2nd/8 -3L	81	1.5-1	LB	3wd bid;second best
9/13	PRM	6f D	RHP 45-75	2nd/7 -2½L	82	4.1-1	LB	Vied early;flatn;rebid
9/4	PRM	6f D	Clm 10k n3l	Won/5	82	0.5-1	LB	Bid 3wd 3/16;going awy

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Palace Guard, finished 2nd.

1st3Pops RewardWin$21.80Place$9.80Show$4.60Our #6

2nd6Palace GuardWin—Place$4.40Show$4.20Our #1

3rd1Ez FitzWin—Place—Show$5.40Our #4

4th7All About MischiefOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Claiming $25,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$32,000

Post

5:00 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 34%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.8

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Palace Guard (a closer, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 88 · 87 · 84. Backup is #7 All About Mischief at 3-1. Use #2 Title Contender in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Palace Guard ran 2nd · Pops Reward won (our #6)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #6)
✗ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 4th, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 PALACE GUARD	2nd
#2	#7 ALL ABOUT MISCHIEF	4th
#3	#2 TITLE CONTENDER	7th
#4	#1 EZ FITZ	3rd
#5	#5 HELADO	5th

Actual finish

1st	#3 Pops Reward	our #6
2nd	#6 Palace Guard	our #1
3rd	#1 Ez Fitz	our #4
4th	#7 All About Mischief	our #2
5th	#5 Helado	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 PALACE GUARD (8-5) — our number agrees.
#6 PALACE GUARD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.4% to their 32.2%).
#7 ALL ABOUT MISCHIEF — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 20.9%).
#2 TITLE CONTENDER — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.2%, they've got 14.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 TITLE CONTENDER — we make it 16.2%, the morning line works out to 14.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Title Contender; pressure from #5 Helado, #7 All About Mischief; the shape helps #1 Ez Fitz, #3 Pops Reward, #7 All About Mischief; and works against #2 Title Contender, #5 Helado.

Lead

2Title Contender865Helado84

Press

7All About Mischief911Ez Fitz893Pops Reward84

Stalk

none

6Palace Guard814Bureaucratic61

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

All About Mischief

Ez Fitz

Title Contender

Pops Reward

Helado

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Palace Guard

Bureaucratic

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