1Choose HappyS. Hernandez · K. WeeksHernandez · WeeksA79 85 81►≡@trip 785-2Fair 9-219%
► Steady79 85 81 ≡@trip 78A2Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 85 81
Jockey Saul Ramirez Hernandez 38% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Kenneth Weeks 30% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot60D LAYOFF3rd last time, a neck back, in a field of 8. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/20 DED 1f D sClm10000n2l 3rd/8 by nk 79 5.2-1 b L Gamely late 7/9 DED 1.13636f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/7 by nk 85 2.8-1 b L Duel late; missed 6/20 DED 1f D fsAlw26000n2l 5th/8 -2¼L 81 11-1 b L No real threat 2Jrs Jess ToastedJ. Garcia Jr. · M. Flores Jr.Garcia Jr. · Flores Jr.C75 79 72►≡@trip 7010-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady75 79 72 ≡@trip 70CCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–79 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 79 72
Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Mardonio Jr Flores 33% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hotCLASS UPA big drop, $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Beaten 1 length for 7th in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at EVD.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 24d backRECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 2 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 21 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 EVD 1f D Clm 20k n2l 7th/8 -1L 75 26-1 b L Foe crossed path 8/6 DED 1f D sClm10000n2l 3rd/7 by nk 79 6.3-1 b L Gamely; bump late 7/17 DED 1.13636f D sAlw26000n1x 6th/6 -1L 72 30-1 b L Squeezed back late 3Harvest GoldN. Castaneda · J. LopezCastaneda · LopezB82 74 81▲▲+8@trip 666-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best82 74 81@trip 66BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 74 81
Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%), #2 of 23 · Trainer Jose U Lopez 26% career 7-for-37 on dirt this meet (19%)Also today · Jockey R3: Imperial Wagon Train 6-1, R4: Streakin Gold Eagle 7-2, R5: Mucho Man Route 3-1 · Trainer R3: Grand Charming Elan 20-160D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LASTWon last out in an 8-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at DED. A 69-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d backRECORD Noe Castaneda from post 3 here: 9 wins, 16 top-3 in 28 rides · 21% wins from all posts hereRECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 DED 1.59091f D MCL 10k Won/8 82 2.7-1 b L Rally;drift in;best 7/3 DED 1.13636f D MCL 20k 8th/10 -1½L 74 1.2-1 b L Steady fade 5/15 DED 1.13636f D MCL 20k 2nd/7 -½L 81 7.9-1 b L Bump;chased;missed 4Love That AshB. Ransom · T. EllisRansom · EllisB81 52 79▲▲+11↕@trip 8115-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best81 52 79 ↕@trip 81BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 52 79
Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1, R6: Rose Night 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R6: Lovin My Wine 8-5CLASS DROPWON LASTRaises its level, maiden claiming $5,000 last time and $10,000 claiming now. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at EVD at 1.7-1.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 205 days agoRECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 EVD 1½f D fsMd5000 Won/9 81 1.7-1 b L Speed; held 8/21 DED 1.13636f D fsMd10000 10th/10 -4¼L 52 4.4-1 b L Fractious; broke in 7/24 DED 1.13636f D fsMd10000 5th/10 -½L 79 4.0-1 L Early bid; hung 5Brookes Golden GirlR. Edison Jr. · D. BustamanteEdison Jr. · BustamanteA82 75 84▲▲+11↕@trip 779-2Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +1182 75 84 ↕@trip 77ACard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–84 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 75 84
Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer David Bustamante 30% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)Drops from $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. 5th last time, ½ length back, in a field of 8.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 EVD 1f D Clm 20k n2l 5th/8 -½L 82 12-1 b L Brk out; bmp; gamely 8/21 DED 1.36364f D Alw n1x 8th/10 -2½L 75 57-1 b L No real threat 7/3 DED 1.13636f D MCL 20k Won/10 by ¾ 84 7.1-1 b L Solid rally; just up 6Rh La DivaLSR. Hernandez · B. AlcantaraHernandez · AlcantaraC50 82 72▼▼-25↕@trip 8215-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -2550 82 72 ↕@trip 82CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 82 72
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%)Also today · Jockey R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R6: Cherub Rock 12-1, R7: Meagans Huckleberry 5-2 · Trainer R5: Ella De Cos 20-1Rene Hernandez takes over from Rolando Cabrera in the saddle. Was running in allowance; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 31d backRECORD Rene Hernandez from post 6 here: 3 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 EVD 1.36364f D fsAlw22500n2l 10th/10 -3½L 50 57-1 b L Erratic trip 8/21 DED 1.36364f D fsAlw24000n2l 5th/9 -1½L 82 61-1 b L Mild try;brushed late 7/24 DED 1.36364f D Clm 15k n2l 8th/8 -2½L 72 36-1 b L Broke out; no factor 7Smartys RcF. Vargas · G. RosalesVargas · RosalesC76 60 73▲▲+9@trip 7620-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best76 60 73@trip 76CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 60 73
Jockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R7: Fast Dashin Spitfire 20-1 · Trainer R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1, R7: Fast Dashin Spitfire 20-1CLASS DROPMoves up from $5,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at EVD, beaten a neck.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 203 days agoRECORD Federico Vargas from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 19 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 EVD 1.36364f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/8 by nk 76 14-1 b L Drift out; hard fought 8/28 DED 1.36364f D sClm10000n2l 8th/8 -3¼L 60 21-1 b L Ducked inward early 8/6 DED 1f D sClm10000n2l 6th/7 -1½L 73 9.3-1 b L No real threat 8Rustic Chic★L. Palomo · J. SanchezPalomo · SanchezB79 54 86▲▲+9↕@trip 8612-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +979 54 86 ↕@trip 86B★ Best at the trip 863Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 54 86
★ Best at the trip 86Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-51 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meetOwns the highest recent figure here at 86. 6th last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 254 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 LS 1.59091f D Clm 10k n2l 6th/9 -2¼L 79 21-1 b L Flattened out 9/12 LS 1.13636f D Clm 10k n2l 9th/10 -4½L 54 7.7-1 b L Off slow 7/23 RET 1.36364f D MCL 10k Won/9 86 1.7-1 b L Dueled; driving finish 9Nuclear BombL. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealA82 76 70▲▲+9@trip 827-2Fair 5-117%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 76 70@trip 82A1Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 76 70
Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1 · Trainer R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, R7: Evelin Fly With Me 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTFigures are climbing: 70, 76, 82 over its last three. The Aug 6 work, 1F in :12.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Aug 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 EVD 1.36364f D MCL 10k Won/10 82 6.4-1 b L All out drive 8/28 DED 1.13636f D sMd20000 5th/8 -2½L 76 9.0-1 b L Even try 5/7 DED 1.13636f D sMd15000 4th/9 -3½L 70 9.0-1 b L Mild bid; evenly 10Kj Man Or RainE. Martinez · R. CastilloMartinez · CastilloC50 77 76▼▼-27↕@trip 788-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -2750 77 76 ↕@trip 78CCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–79 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 77 76
Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ricardo Saul Castillo 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet8th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 199 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 EVD 1f D sClm10000n2l 8th/9 -3½L 50 26-1 b L Brk in; lost path 8/28 DED 1.36364f D sClm10000n2l 2nd/8 -½L 77 9.4-1 b L Brokein;rally;held 2nd 8/6 DED 1f D sClm10000n2l 5th/7 by nk 76 11-1 b L Ducked in start;evenly
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 2-year-olds, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #9 Nuclear Bomb (a tactical type, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 82 · 76 · 70. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Choose Happy at 5-2. Use #8 Rustic Chic in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 CHOOSE HAPPY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #1 CHOOSE HAPPY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.2%).
- #9 NUCLEAR BOMB — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.3%).
- #5 BROOKES GOLDEN GIRL — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Choose Happy, #2 Jrs Jess Toasted, #3 Harvest Gold.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)
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