R2 Evangeline Downs · Claiming $10,000

7:00 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $11,000 · 10 runners7:00 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $11K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Choose HappyS. Hernandez · K. WeeksHernandez · WeeksA79 85 81►≡@trip 785-2Fair 9-219%► Steady79 85 81 ≡@trip 78A2

    Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 85 81

    Jockey Saul Ramirez Hernandez 38% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Kenneth Weeks 30% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot
    60D LAYOFF

    3rd last time, a neck back, in a field of 8. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/20DED1f DsClm10000n2l3rd/8 by nk795.2-1b LGamely late
    7/9DED1.13636f DClm 10k n2l2nd/7 by nk852.8-1b LDuel late; missed
    6/20DED1f DfsAlw26000n2l5th/8 -2¼L8111-1b LNo real threat
  2. 2Jrs Jess ToastedJ. Garcia Jr. · M. Flores Jr.Garcia Jr. · Flores Jr.C75 79 72►≡@trip 7010-1Fair 15-17%► Steady75 79 72 ≡@trip 70C

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–79 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 79 72

    Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Mardonio Jr Flores 33% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R3: McKenzie Foose 15-1, R6: Lovin My Wine 8-5
    CLASS UP

    A big drop, $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Beaten 1 length for 7th in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at EVD.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 24d back
    RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 2 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 21 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15EVD1f DClm 20k n2l7th/8 -1L7526-1b LFoe crossed path
    8/6DED1f DsClm10000n2l3rd/7 by nk796.3-1b LGamely; bump late
    7/17DED1.13636f DsAlw26000n1x6th/6 -1L7230-1b LSqueezed back late
  3. 3Harvest GoldN. Castaneda · J. LopezCastaneda · LopezB82 74 81▲▲+8@trip 666-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best82 74 81@trip 66B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 74 81

    Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%), #2 of 23 · Trainer Jose U Lopez 26% career 7-for-37 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Imperial Wagon Train 6-1, R4: Streakin Gold Eagle 7-2, R5: Mucho Man Route 3-1 · Trainer R3: Grand Charming Elan 20-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST

    Won last out in an 8-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at DED. A 69-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back
    RECORD Noe Castaneda from post 3 here: 9 wins, 16 top-3 in 28 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
    RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/22DED1.59091f DMCL 10kWon/8822.7-1b LRally;drift in;best
    7/3DED1.13636f DMCL 20k8th/10 -1½L741.2-1b LSteady fade
    5/15DED1.13636f DMCL 20k2nd/7 -½L817.9-1b LBump;chased;missed
  4. 4Love That AshB. Ransom · T. EllisRansom · EllisB81 52 79▲▲+11↕@trip 8115-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best81 52 79 ↕@trip 81B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 52 79

    Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1, R6: Rose Night 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R6: Lovin My Wine 8-5
    CLASS DROPWON LAST

    Raises its level, maiden claiming $5,000 last time and $10,000 claiming now. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at EVD at 1.7-1.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 205 days ago
    RECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1½f DfsMd5000Won/9811.7-1b LSpeed; held
    8/21DED1.13636f DfsMd1000010th/10 -4¼L524.4-1b LFractious; broke in
    7/24DED1.13636f DfsMd100005th/10 -½L794.0-1LEarly bid; hung
  5. 5Brookes Golden GirlR. Edison Jr. · D. BustamanteEdison Jr. · BustamanteA82 75 84▲▲+11↕@trip 779-2Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +1182 75 84 ↕@trip 77A

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–84 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 75 84

    Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer David Bustamante 30% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Shezadashincartel 3-1, R4: Special Ivory Kisses 9-2, R5: Pyc Socialite 6-1

    Drops from $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. 5th last time, ½ length back, in a field of 8.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15EVD1f DClm 20k n2l5th/8 -½L8212-1b LBrk out; bmp; gamely
    8/21DED1.36364f DAlw n1x8th/10 -2½L7557-1b LNo real threat
    7/3DED1.13636f DMCL 20kWon/10 by ¾847.1-1b LSolid rally; just up
  6. 6Rh La DivaLSR. Hernandez · B. AlcantaraHernandez · AlcantaraC50 82 72▼▼-25↕@trip 8215-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2550 82 72 ↕@trip 82CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 82 72

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R6: Cherub Rock 12-1, R7: Meagans Huckleberry 5-2 · Trainer R5: Ella De Cos 20-1

    Rene Hernandez takes over from Rolando Cabrera in the saddle. Was running in allowance; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 31d back
    RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 6 here: 3 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1.36364f DfsAlw22500n2l10th/10 -3½L5057-1b LErratic trip
    8/21DED1.36364f DfsAlw24000n2l5th/9 -1½L8261-1b LMild try;brushed late
    7/24DED1.36364f DClm 15k n2l8th/8 -2½L7236-1b LBroke out; no factor
  7. 7Smartys RcF. Vargas · G. RosalesVargas · RosalesC76 60 73▲▲+9@trip 7620-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best76 60 73@trip 76C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 60 73

    Jockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R7: Fast Dashin Spitfire 20-1 · Trainer R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1, R7: Fast Dashin Spitfire 20-1
    CLASS DROP

    Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at EVD, beaten a neck.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 203 days ago
    RECORD Federico Vargas from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 19 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8EVD1.36364f DClm 5k n2l3rd/8 by nk7614-1b LDrift out; hard fought
    8/28DED1.36364f DsClm10000n2l8th/8 -3¼L6021-1b LDucked inward early
    8/6DED1f DsClm10000n2l6th/7 -1½L739.3-1b LNo real threat
  8. 8Rustic Chic★L. Palomo · J. SanchezPalomo · SanchezB79 54 86▲▲+9↕@trip 8612-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +979 54 86 ↕@trip 86B★ Best at the trip 863

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 54 86

    ★ Best at the trip 86
    Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-51 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Senoritas Candy Can 12-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R6: Wild Blood Fortunes 8-1

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 86. 6th last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 254 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.59091f DClm 10k n2l6th/9 -2¼L7921-1b LFlattened out
    9/12LS1.13636f DClm 10k n2l9th/10 -4½L547.7-1b LOff slow
    7/23RET1.36364f DMCL 10kWon/9861.7-1b LDueled; driving finish
  9. 9Nuclear BombL. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealA82 76 70▲▲+9@trip 827-2Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 76 70@trip 82A1

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 76 70

    Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1 · Trainer R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, R7: Evelin Fly With Me 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Figures are climbing: 70, 76, 82 over its last three. The Aug 6 work, 1F in :12.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Aug 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14EVD1.36364f DMCL 10kWon/10826.4-1b LAll out drive
    8/28DED1.13636f DsMd200005th/8 -2½L769.0-1b LEven try
    5/7DED1.13636f DsMd150004th/9 -3½L709.0-1b LMild bid; evenly
  10. 10Kj Man Or RainE. Martinez · R. CastilloMartinez · CastilloC50 77 76▼▼-27↕@trip 788-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -2750 77 76 ↕@trip 78C

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–79 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 77 76

    Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ricardo Saul Castillo 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1

    8th last time, 3½ lengths back, in a field of 9.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 199 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8EVD1f DsClm10000n2l8th/9 -3½L5026-1b LBrk in; lost path
    8/28DED1.36364f DsClm10000n2l2nd/8 -½L779.4-1b LBrokein;rally;held 2nd
    8/6DED1f DsClm10000n2l5th/7 by nk7611-1b LDucked in start;evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART300 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$11,000
Post
7:00 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#9 · 17%

Claiming $10,000, for 2-year-olds, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Nuclear Bomb (a tactical type, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 82 · 76 · 70. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Choose Happy at 5-2. Use #8 Rustic Chic in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 CHOOSE HAPPY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #1 CHOOSE HAPPY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 22.2%).
  • #9 NUCLEAR BOMB — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 17.3%).
  • #5 BROOKES GOLDEN GIRL — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Choose Happy, #2 Jrs Jess Toasted, #3 Harvest Gold.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Choose Happy2Jrs Jess Toasted3Harvest Gold4Love That Ash5Brookes Golden Girl6Rh La Diva7Smartys Rc8Rustic Chic9Nuclear Bomb10Kj Man Or Rain

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Choose Happy
0
2
Jrs Jess Toasted
0
3
Harvest Gold
0
4
Love That Ash
0
5
Brookes Golden Girl
0
6
Rh La Diva
0
7
Smartys Rc
0
8
Rustic Chic
0
9
Nuclear Bomb
0
10
Kj Man Or Rain
0
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