R3 Evangeline Downs · Claiming $20,000

7:25 PM ET · 220 Yards Dirt · $12,500 · 10 runners7:25 PM · 1f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #9 Grand Charming Elan (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 103 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Shezadashincartel▼R. Edison Jr. · P. Calais Jr.Edison Jr. · Calais Jr.B81 87 88►@trip 903-1Fair 6-115%► Steady81 87 88@trip 90B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 87)

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 87 88

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 87)
    Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Philip Jr Calais 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Brookes Golden Girl 9-2, R4: Special Ivory Kisses 9-2, R5: Pyc Socialite 6-1 · Trainer R1: Jess Catch This 5-1
    2/3 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 87 to 81. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 64d back)
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1.36364f DClm 20k n2l8th/10 -½L813.3-1b LBmp; no impact
    6/13DED1.36364f DAlw n2l4th/8 -½L873.4-1b LBump; bid; hung
    5/23DED1.36364f DAlw n2l4th/9 -½L8813-1b LBid;bump hard;weaken
  2. 2Wagon My DetailB. Ransom · T. EllisRansom · EllisA67 94 81▼▼-20↕@trip 945-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -2067 94 81 ↕@trip 94A3

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 94 81

    Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1, R6: Rose Night 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R6: Lovin My Wine 8-5

    7th last time, 1¾ lengths back, in a field of 9. Worked 1F in :11.60 on Apr 6, 3rd of 46 at the distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days ago
    RECORD B Ransom from post 2 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 39 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8EVD1.36364f DAlw n2l7th/9 -1¾L674.9-1b LBmp; early ft; no kick
    8/15DED1.13636f DMSWWon/10943.7-1b LSpeed; finished well
    7/3DED1.13636f DMCL 25k6th/8 -1½L811.9-1b LFractious; no threat
  3. 3Be BayouY. Rodriguez · J. GonzalezRodriguez · GonzalezC81 84 65▲+3@trip 8110-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +381 84 65@trip 81C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 84 65

    Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jaime E Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer this race: Senoritas Candy Can 12-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Off 70 days since the last start. Finished 6th in a 6-horse allowance race at DED, beaten a neck.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 3 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 42 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/21DED1.13636f DAlw n1x6th/6 by nk8121-1b LEarly bid; hung late
    5/23DED1½f DMSWWon/6842.7-1b LSpeed; finished well
    11/11WRD1.59091f DMSW9th/10 -4¾L6511-1b LHopped st;carried out
  4. 4Imperial Wagon TrainN. Castaneda · M. MacIasCastaneda · MacIasA89 88 83▲▲+10↕@trip 886-1Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best89 88 83 ↕@trip 88A1

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–89 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 88 83

    Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%), #2 of 23 · Trainer Manuel H Macias 17% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Harvest Gold 6-1, R4: Streakin Gold Eagle 7-2, R5: Mucho Man Route 3-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS UPJky 12/37 from post 4

    Freshened 112 days. Watch how its recent works look. Figures are climbing: 83, 88, 89 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 36d back)
    RECORD Noe Castaneda from post 4 here: 12 wins, 17 top-3 in 37 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/10DED1.36364f DClm 20k n2l3rd/8 -1½L8930-1bGame effort
    6/11DED1.13636f DMCL 10kWon/10889.7-1bSteady gain;prove best
    5/21DED1.36364f DMCL 5k2nd/9838.4-1bDueled; outfinished
  5. 5Senoritas Candy CanL. Palomo · J. GonzalezPalomo · GonzalezC84 68 67▲▲+8↕@trip 9312-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +884 68 67 ↕@trip 93C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 68 67

    Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-51 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jaime E Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rustic Chic 12-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R6: Wild Blood Fortunes 8-1 · Trainer this race: Be Bayou 10-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Runs for $12,500 after a $6,000 race last out. Returns from a 139-day break, the biggest in the field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/13DED1.59091f DDbyTrl 60007th/10 -3¼L8443-1b LDrift out; mild try
    4/24DED1½f DDbyTrl 50009th/10 -4¾L6854-1b LSet back on rig
    11/21EVD1.81818f DFutTrl50008th/8 -3¼L6723-1b LEliminated start
  6. 6One Big StormE. Martinez · L. Martinez Jr.Martinez · Martinez Jr.A84 89 97▼▼-9@trip 935-2Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -984 89 97@trip 93A2

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 89 97

    Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Kj Man Or Rain 8-1, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1 · Trainer R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 97. The Feb 6 work, 1F in :11.40, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 266d back)
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8EVD1.36364f DAlw n2l4th/9 by nk841.6-1b LStrong effort
    8/14DED1.59091f DAlw n2l3rd/10 -1½L893.3-1b LGained;best of rest
    7/10DED1.36364f DClm 20k n2l2nd/8 -½L971.1-1b LDueled late; missed
  7. 7Five Valiant▼R. Cabrera · C. CastroCabrera · CastroC62 89 69▼▼-12↕@trip 8915-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1262 89 69 ↕@trip 89C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 89)

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 89 69

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 89)
    Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-59 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Carlos Gabriel Castro 26% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Mp Jess Deluxe 6-1, R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1, R7: Swiftie 7-2
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

    Fastest 1F work of its morning on Feb 27 (:12.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Last out was 8th, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at EVD.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    TROUBLED TRIP Sandwiched; steadied last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.40 on Feb 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 7 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 28 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
    RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8EVD1.36364f DAlw n2l8th/9 -2¾L6238-1bSandwiched; steadied
    8/1RET1.13636f DClm 10k n2l6th/10 -2L8932-1bNo threat
    6/6HOU1.13636f DsClm15000n2l10th/10 -5½L6933-1bStumbled badly; bumped
  8. 8Mckenzie FooseLSJ. Garcia Jr. · H. SanchezGarcia Jr. · SanchezC65 79 92▼▼-22↕@trip 9215-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2265 79 92 ↕@trip 92CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 79 92

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Hector J Sanchez 34% career ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Jrs Jess Toasted 10-1, R6: Lovin My Wine 8-5

    Was running in allowance; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Trending the wrong way on speed, 92 to 79 to 65.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 259d back)
    RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 8 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1.13636f DAlw n2l10th/10 -3¼L6539-1LTrailed
    9/5SRR1½f DClm 10k n2l8th/9 -1¾L799.5-1LMild bid
    8/28SRR1.13636f DMCL 20kWon/5 by nk922.4-1LUp late for win
  9. 9Grand Charming Elan★L. Rodriguez · J. LopezRodriguez · LopezB74 90 78▼▼-9@trip 10320-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -974 90 78@trip 103B★ Best at the trip 103

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 103 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 90 78

    ★ Best at the trip 103
    Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-57 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jose U Lopez 26% career 7-for-37 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Kj Eye Your Cash 15-1 · Trainer R2: Harvest Gold 6-1

    Beaten 2¾ lengths for 10th in a 10-horse $20,000 claiming race at EVD.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 171d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 9 here: 1 win, 16 top-3 in 32 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1.36364f DClm 20k n2l10th/10 -2¾L7413-1b LBroke out; outrun
    8/29GIL1f DsAlw16500n1y3rd/8 -2L9022-1b LBumped twice solid ral
    7/18RET1½f DAlw n2l9th/10 -3L7819-1b LBumped; no threat
  10. 10Runaway FreighttrainJ. Rodriguez · K. RobertsRodriguez · RobertsB86 80 83▲+5≡@trip 868-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +5 · career best86 80 83 ≡@trip 86B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 80–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 80 83

    Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-35 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Catch This 5-1 · Trainer R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R6: Wild Blood Fortunes 8-1, R7: San Lorenzo N Black 4-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

    A big drop, allowance to $20,000 claiming, and worth asking why. 119 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Apr 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 10 here: 5 wins, 22 top-3 in 59 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/3DED1f DsAlw26000n2l9th/10 -1¼L8620-1b LNo real threat
    12/11EVD1.13636f DAlw n2l5th/10 by nk809.0-1b LNo late kick
    11/22EVD1.13636f DsAlw19500n2l3rd/6 by nk836.5-1b LDueled; weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART220 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$12,500
Post
7:25 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#4 · 15%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 220 Yards: 11.52

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Imperial Wagon Train (a tactical type, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 89 · 88 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 One Big Storm at 5-2. Use #2 Wagon My Detail in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 ONE BIG STORM (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #6 ONE BIG STORM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.0%).
  • #1 SHEZADASHINCARTEL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 19.3%).
  • #2 WAGON MY DETAIL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Shezadashincartel, #2 Wagon My Detail, #3 Be Bayou.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Shezadashincartel2Wagon My Detail3Be Bayou4Imperial Wagon Train5Senoritas Candy Can6One Big Storm7Five Valiant8McKenzie Foose9Grand Charming Elan10Runaway Freighttrain

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
McKenzie Foose
15
1
Shezadashincartel
0
2
Wagon My Detail
0
3
Be Bayou
0
4
Imperial Wagon Train
0
5
Senoritas Candy Can
0
6
One Big Storm
0
7
Five Valiant
0
9
Grand Charming Elan
0
10
Runaway Freighttrain
0
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

PICK 5 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7-)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.