1Jrs Martini Tee▼A. Morales · E. JeaneMorales · JeaneC62 77 76▼▼-13@trip 7315-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1362 77 76@trip 73C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 77 76
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 23 · Trainer Emily Jeane 24% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)60D LAYOFFReturns from a 119-day break. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump; no late kick. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/3 DED 2½f D sClm5000n2l 5th/5 -5L 62 4.0-1 b L Bump;no late kick 5/23 DED 1.59091f D Clm 5k n2l 5th/7 -3L 77 37-1 b L Mild try; evenly 3/25 LAD 1.36364f D sClm7500n2l 5th/8 -1½L 76 22-1 L Passed tired foe 2ElgavachosexyLSS. Ramirez · S. RamirezRamirez · RamirezC71 68 77►@trip 8620-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady71 68 77@trip 86CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 68 77
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Selina Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot180D+ LAYOFF2/3 board hereSelina Ramirez takes over the training from Carlos Gabriel Castro. Back after 183 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/30 HOU 1.36364f D STA 9th/9 -3¾L 71 11-1 b L No factor 1/20 LAD 1f D Clm 20k n2l 7th/10 -4½L 68 15-1 b L Bmpd;even effort 12/12 EVD 1.36364f D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/10 -½L 77 9.0-1 b L Dueled; late push 3San Lorenzo N BlackP. Espinosa · K. RobertsEspinosa · RobertsB73 86 82▼-7@trip 864-1Fair 7-112%
▼ Down -773 86 82@trip 86BCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 86 82
Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Check Moonin 8-5, R4: Give Them No Choice 15-1, R5: Ella De Cos 20-1 · Trainer R3: Runaway Freighttrain 8-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R6: Wild Blood Fortunes 8-10/3 board hereWas running in $7,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Finished 5th in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at EVD, beaten ¾ length.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 202d back)RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereRECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 3 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 25 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 EVD 1.36364f D sClm7500n2l 5th/9 -¾L 73 5.3-1 b L Steady gain 8/15 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/9 by nk 86 12-1 b L Steady gain 6/27 DED 1.36364f D Clm 7k n2l 7th/10 -4L 82 11-1 b L Bumped; bid; faded 4Evelin Fly With MeB. Ransom · P. LealRansom · LealB78 79 78►≡@trip 865-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady78 79 78 ≡@trip 86BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–80 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 79 78
Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, this race: Daddys First 10-160D LAYOFF6th last time, ¾ length back, in a field of 9. A 76-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 85d agoRECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 6th/9 -¾L 78 14-1 b Early try; faded 6/10 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/9 by hd 79 12-1 b Hard fought loss 5/14 DED 1f D Clm 10k n2l 7th/10 -½L 78 40-1 b Mild early try 5Daddys First▼★L. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealA78 78 91▼-6@trip 9110-1Fair 7-112%
▼ Down -678 78 91@trip 91A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 911Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 78 91
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 91Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1 · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, this race: Evelin Fly With Me 5-160D LAYOFFCLASS DROPTops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 87 for the next best. Freshened 142 days. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/10 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 4th/9 by nk 78 2.9-1 b Game effort 5/8 DED 1.36364f D Clm 7k n2l 8th/10 -2L 78 25-1 b Showed little 11/19 EVD 1f D Clm 7k n2l 4th/8 -1L 91 22-1 b Strong late kick 6Fast Dashin Spitfire▼F. Vargas · G. RosalesVargas · RosalesC64 84 72▼▼-13@trip 8420-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -1364 84 72@trip 84C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises2Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 84 72
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)60D LAYOFFCLASS UPA big drop, $10,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Beaten 2¾ lengths for 7th in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at DED.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d agoRECORD Federico Vargas from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 15 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 DED 1½f D Clm 10k n2l 7th/7 -2¾L 64 16-1 b L No factor 7/17 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 5th/8 -1L 84 25-1 b L Steady gain 6/10 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 8th/9 -1L 72 18-1 b L Hopped; stumbled 7Dlj Ms PilotoA. Ochoa · D. LondonOchoa · LondonB81 60 65▲▲+18@trip 818-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best81 60 65@trip 81BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 60 65
Jockey Alejandro Ochoa 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Dondrick London 14% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 42WON LASTLast start was a win, in an 8-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at EVD at 31-1. The Mar 21 work, 1F in :11.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 21 (1F in :11.60), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 EVD 1f D sMd5000 Won/8 81 31-1 b L Erratic; best 6/11 DED 1½f D sMd5000 6th/9 -2L 60 15-1 b L Bumped; even effort 5/27 DED 1.36364f D sMd10000 8th/9 -2½L 65 25-1 b L Broke in; no late kick 8SwiftieR. Cabrera · S. FloresCabrera · FloresA81 84 82►≡@trip 847-2Fair 5-116%
► Steady81 84 82 ≡@trip 84A3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 84 82
Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-59 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-30 on dirt this meet (3%)Also today · Jockey R3: Five Valiant 15-1, R4: Mp Jess Deluxe 6-1, R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1 · Trainer R6: Cherub Rock 12-160D LAYOFFFinished 5th in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at DED, beaten 1½ lengths. A 76-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d agoRECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 8 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 28 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 5th/9 -1½L 81 12-1 b L Broke out; late try 7/17 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/8 84 5.4-1 b L Broke in;speed;caught 6/25 DED 1.13636f D sClm5000n2l 3rd/7 -½L 82 4.2-1 b L Game effort 9Bugs Gone RogueU. Luna · L. Martinez Jr.Luna · Martinez Jr.C76 76 80►≡@trip 8015-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady76 76 80 ≡@trip 80CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 76 80
Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Buckle Up Blue 7-2, R4: Ss Apollo Road 20-1, R5: Easee Win 15-1 · Trainer R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board hereWorked 1F in :12.40 on May 15, 3rd of 22 at the distance. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Oct 14 (:11.80), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 9 here: 1 win, 13 top-3 in 37 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 7th/9 -1L 76 27-1 b L Mild try 6/25 DED 1.13636f D sClm5000n2l 7th/7 -1L 76 7.9-1 b L Steady fade 6/5 DED 1.13636f D sClm7500n2l 3rd/9 -½L 80 25-1 b L Bumped; solid try 10Meagans HuckleberryR. Hernandez · D. HodaHernandez · HodaA69 87 85▼▼-16@trip 875-2Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -1669 87 85@trip 87ACard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 87 85
Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Danny Hoda 31% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Rh La Diva 15-1, R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R6: Cherub Rock 12-1 · Trainer R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-10/4 board hereDrops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Finished 9th in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at EVD, beaten ¾ length.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 595d agoRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereRECORD Rene Hernandez from post 10 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 26 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 EVD 1.36364f D sClm7500n2l 9th/9 -¾L 69 9.0-1 b L Early try; retreated 8/15 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/9 87 3.5-1 b L Dueled; outfinished 7/17 DED 1.13636f D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/8 by nk 85 3.2-1 b L Gamely late; missed
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 7
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.83
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Daddys First (a tactical type, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 78 · 78 · 91. Backup is #6 Fast Dashin Spitfire at 20-1. Use #8 Swiftie in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 MEAGANS HUCKLEBERRY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #8.
- #10 MEAGANS HUCKLEBERRY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 22.0%).
- #8 SWIFTIE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.1%).
- #3 SAN LORENZO N BLACK — our #9 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 15.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 FAST DASHIN SPITFIRE (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Jrs Martini Tee, #2 Elgavachosexy, #3 San Lorenzo N Black.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
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