R7 Evangeline Downs · Claiming $5,000

9:05 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $9,500 · 10 runners9:05 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $9,500 · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Jrs Martini Tee▼A. Morales · E. JeaneMorales · JeaneC62 77 76▼▼-13@trip 7315-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1362 77 76@trip 73C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 77 76

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 23 · Trainer Emily Jeane 24% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    60D LAYOFF

    Returns from a 119-day break. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump; no late kick. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/3DED2½f DsClm5000n2l5th/5 -5L624.0-1b LBump;no late kick
    5/23DED1.59091f DClm 5k n2l5th/7 -3L7737-1b LMild try; evenly
    3/25LAD1.36364f DsClm7500n2l5th/8 -1½L7622-1LPassed tired foe
  2. 2ElgavachosexyLSS. Ramirez · S. RamirezRamirez · RamirezC71 68 77►@trip 8620-1Fair 15-16%► Steady71 68 77@trip 86CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 68 77

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Selina Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fireballs Deluxe 5-2, R6: Lynns Sweet Angel 20-1
    180D+ LAYOFF2/3 board here

    Selina Ramirez takes over the training from Carlos Gabriel Castro. Back after 183 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/30HOU1.36364f DSTA9th/9 -3¾L7111-1b LNo factor
    1/20LAD1f DClm 20k n2l7th/10 -4½L6815-1b LBmpd;even effort
    12/12EVD1.36364f DClm 5k n2l2nd/10 -½L779.0-1b LDueled; late push
  3. 3San Lorenzo N BlackP. Espinosa · K. RobertsEspinosa · RobertsB73 86 82▼-7@trip 864-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -773 86 82@trip 86B

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 86 82

    Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Check Moonin 8-5, R4: Give Them No Choice 15-1, R5: Ella De Cos 20-1 · Trainer R3: Runaway Freighttrain 8-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R6: Wild Blood Fortunes 8-1
    0/3 board here

    Was running in $7,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Finished 5th in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at EVD, beaten ¾ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 202d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
    RECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 3 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 25 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10EVD1.36364f DsClm7500n2l5th/9 -¾L735.3-1b LSteady gain
    8/15DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l3rd/9 by nk8612-1b LSteady gain
    6/27DED1.36364f DClm 7k n2l7th/10 -4L8211-1b LBumped; bid; faded
  4. 4Evelin Fly With MeB. Ransom · P. LealRansom · LealB78 79 78►≡@trip 865-1Fair 8-111%► Steady78 79 78 ≡@trip 86B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–80 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 79 78

    Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, this race: Daddys First 10-1
    60D LAYOFF

    6th last time, ¾ length back, in a field of 9. A 76-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 85d ago
    RECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l6th/9 -¾L7814-1bEarly try; faded
    6/10DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l3rd/9 by hd7912-1bHard fought loss
    5/14DED1f DClm 10k n2l7th/10 -½L7840-1bMild early try
  5. 5Daddys First▼★L. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealA78 78 91▼-6@trip 9110-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -678 78 91@trip 91A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 911

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 78 91

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 91
    Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1 · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, this race: Evelin Fly With Me 5-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 87 for the next best. Freshened 142 days. Watch how its recent works look.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/10DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l4th/9 by nk782.9-1bGame effort
    5/8DED1.36364f DClm 7k n2l8th/10 -2L7825-1bShowed little
    11/19EVD1f DClm 7k n2l4th/8 -1L9122-1bStrong late kick
  6. 6Fast Dashin Spitfire▼F. Vargas · G. RosalesVargas · RosalesC64 84 72▼▼-13@trip 8420-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1364 84 72@trip 84C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises2

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 84 72

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Smartys Rc 20-1 · Trainer R2: Smartys Rc 20-1, R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS UP

    A big drop, $10,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Beaten 2¾ lengths for 7th in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at DED.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago
    RECORD Federico Vargas from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 15 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/22DED1½f DClm 10k n2l7th/7 -2¾L6416-1b LNo factor
    7/17DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l5th/8 -1L8425-1b LSteady gain
    6/10DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l8th/9 -1L7218-1b LHopped; stumbled
  7. 7Dlj Ms PilotoA. Ochoa · D. LondonOchoa · LondonB81 60 65▲▲+18@trip 818-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best81 60 65@trip 81B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 60 65

    Jockey Alejandro Ochoa 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Dondrick London 14% career 4-for-10 on dirt this meet (40%), #1 of 42
    Also today · Jockey R4: A Fabulous Moon 12-1 · Trainer R4: A Fabulous Moon 12-1
    WON LAST

    Last start was a win, in an 8-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at EVD at 31-1. The Mar 21 work, 1F in :11.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 21 (1F in :11.60), 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9EVD1f DsMd5000Won/88131-1b LErratic; best
    6/11DED1½f DsMd50006th/9 -2L6015-1b LBumped; even effort
    5/27DED1.36364f DsMd100008th/9 -2½L6525-1b LBroke in; no late kick
  8. 8SwiftieR. Cabrera · S. FloresCabrera · FloresA81 84 82►≡@trip 847-2Fair 5-116%► Steady81 84 82 ≡@trip 84A3

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 84 82

    Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-59 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-30 on dirt this meet (3%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Five Valiant 15-1, R4: Mp Jess Deluxe 6-1, R5: One Dashin Esperanza 5-1 · Trainer R6: Cherub Rock 12-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Finished 5th in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at DED, beaten 1½ lengths. A 76-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago
    RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 8 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 28 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l5th/9 -1½L8112-1b LBroke out; late try
    7/17DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l3rd/8845.4-1b LBroke in;speed;caught
    6/25DED1.13636f DsClm5000n2l3rd/7 -½L824.2-1b LGame effort
  9. 9Bugs Gone RogueU. Luna · L. Martinez Jr.Luna · Martinez Jr.C76 76 80►≡@trip 8015-1Fair 15-16%► Steady76 76 80 ≡@trip 80C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 76 80

    Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Buckle Up Blue 7-2, R4: Ss Apollo Road 20-1, R5: Easee Win 15-1 · Trainer R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

    Worked 1F in :12.40 on May 15, 3rd of 22 at the distance. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Oct 14 (:11.80), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)
    RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 9 here: 1 win, 13 top-3 in 37 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l7th/9 -1L7627-1b LMild try
    6/25DED1.13636f DsClm5000n2l7th/7 -1L767.9-1b LSteady fade
    6/5DED1.13636f DsClm7500n2l3rd/9 -½L8025-1b LBumped; solid try
  10. 10Meagans HuckleberryR. Hernandez · D. HodaHernandez · HodaA69 87 85▼▼-16@trip 875-2Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -1669 87 85@trip 87A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 87 85

    Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Danny Hoda 31% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rh La Diva 15-1, R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R6: Cherub Rock 12-1 · Trainer R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1
    0/4 board here

    Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Finished 9th in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at EVD, beaten ¾ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 595d ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
    RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 10 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 26 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10EVD1.36364f DsClm7500n2l9th/9 -¾L699.0-1b LEarly try; retreated
    8/15DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l2nd/9873.5-1b LDueled; outfinished
    7/17DED1.13636f DClm 5k n2l2nd/8 by nk853.2-1b LGamely late; missed

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART250 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$9,500
Post
9:05 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#5 · 12%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.83

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Daddys First (a tactical type, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 78 · 78 · 91. Backup is #6 Fast Dashin Spitfire at 20-1. Use #8 Swiftie in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 MEAGANS HUCKLEBERRY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #8.
  • #10 MEAGANS HUCKLEBERRY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 22.0%).
  • #8 SWIFTIE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.1%).
  • #3 SAN LORENZO N BLACK — our #9 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 FAST DASHIN SPITFIRE (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jrs Martini Tee, #2 Elgavachosexy, #3 San Lorenzo N Black.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Jrs Martini Tee2Elgavachosexy3San Lorenzo N Black4Evelin Fly With Me5Daddys First6Fast Dashin Spitfire7Dlj Ms Piloto8Swiftie9Bugs Gone Rogue10Meagans Huckleberry

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Jrs Martini Tee
0
2
Elgavachosexy
0
3
San Lorenzo N Black
0
4
Evelin Fly With Me
0
5
Daddys First
0
6
Fast Dashin Spitfire
0
7
Dlj Ms Piloto
0
8
Swiftie
0
9
Bugs Gone Rogue
0
10
Meagans Huckleberry
0
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