R5 Evangeline Downs · Allowance · $15,500 purse

8:15 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $15,500 · 9 runners8:15 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $16K · Allowance · $15,500 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ragnar the GreatLSB. Ransom · D. RhodesRansom · RhodesB90 77 82▲▲+10@trip 9515-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1090 77 82@trip 95BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 77 82

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Dustin Rhodes 23% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R6: Rose Night 9-2 +1 more

Beaten ¾ length for 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at EVD. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 104d ago

RECORD B Ransom from post 1 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 36 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1½f D	Alw n3l	3rd/10 -¾L	90	13-1	L	Strong late surge
8/28	DED	1.59091f D	DeSaix S25k	8th/8 -2¼L	77	1.6-1	L	Pinch back;steady late
8/21	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n1x	3rd/10 -2¼L	82	1.9-1	L	Late rush;up for show

2Jrs Mucho SpeedJ. Ramirez · M. TrejoRamirez · TrejoC83 80 79▲+5≡@trip 8320-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +5 · career best83 80 79 ≡@trip 83C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 80 79

Jockey J R Ramirez 33% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Martin Trejo 29% career 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%)

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Changes barns, from Kenneth Roberts to Martin Trejo. Won last out in an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at DED.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	DED	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2lc	Won/8	83	1.8-1	b L	Rally;best stride late
8/6	DED	1f D	sClm10000n2l	2nd/7 -½L	80	1.0-1	b L	Late rush; up for 2nd
6/19	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl15000	6th/7 -6½L	79	42-1	b L	Brushed; no threat

3Mucho Man RouteN. Castaneda · J. GarciaCastaneda · GarciaB93 79 86▲▲+8@trip 773-1Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best93 79 86@trip 77B

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 79 86

Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career 9-for-46 on dirt this meet (20%), #2 of 23 · Trainer Jose A Garcia 32% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Harvest Gold 6-1, R3: Imperial Wagon Train 6-1, R4: Streakin Gold Eagle 7-2

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Drops from allowance to allowance. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse allowance race at DED at 3.5-1.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 254d ago

RECORD Noe Castaneda from post 3 here: 9 wins, 16 top-3 in 28 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/27	DED	1.13636f D	sAlw24000n2l	Won/8	93	3.5-1	b	Gate to wire
7/11	DED	1.59091f D	sLouisnaJuv75k	9th/10 -¾L	79	23-1	b	Bump; bid; gave way
6/19	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl15000	3rd/8 -1L	86	5.2-1	b	Solid try; missed 2nd

4One Dashin EsperanzaR. Cabrera · G. RosalesCabrera · RosalesA89 87 94►≡@trip 895-1Fair 6-114%► Steady89 87 94 ≡@trip 89A1

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–94 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 87 94

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-59 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Five Valiant 15-1, R4: Mp Jess Deluxe 6-1, R7: Swiftie 7-2 · Trainer R2: Smartys Rc 20-1, R7: Fast Dashin Spitfire 20-1

6th last time, a head back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 147 days ago

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 4 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 41 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/10 by hd	89	22-1	b L	Drift in; outfinished
8/21	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n1x	Won/10	87	5.8-1	b L	Speed; finished well
7/24	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/9	94	4.8-1	b L	Speed; held on

5Jp Fast Dash★R. Hernandez · F. LopezHernandez · LopezA97 102 91►@trip 1028-5Fair 3-126%► Steady97 102 91@trip 102A★ Best at the trip 1022

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 102 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 102 91

★ Best at the trip 102

Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Fernando Lopez 26% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Rh La Diva 15-1, R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R6: Cherub Rock 12-1, R7: Meagans Huckleberry 5-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 102 against 94 for the next best. 2 wins from 3 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Cruised; drew clear.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Feb 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 5 here: 8 wins, 21 top-3 in 56 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	DED	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	Won/10	97	0.3-1	b	Cruised; drew clear
7/17	DED	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	102	0.2-1	b	Complete runaway
3/6	LAD	1.36364f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/10 -½L	91	1.7-1	b	Just missed

6Easee WinU. Luna · F. Campos Jr.Luna · Campos Jr.C87 81 85►≡@trip 8115-1Fair 20-15%► Steady87 81 85 ≡@trip 81C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–89 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 81 85

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Buckle Up Blue 7-2, R4: Ss Apollo Road 20-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1

WON LASTJky 13/66 from post 6

Jockey switch: Rolando Cabrera last out, Ubaldo Luna today. Worked 1F in :13.40 on Feb 6, 3rd of 6 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 219d back)

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 6 here: 13 wins, 29 top-3 in 66 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	Won/9	87	24-1	b L	Speed; held
8/21	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n1x	4th/10 -2½L	81	11-1	b L	Surged late
8/7	DED	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	6th/10 -3L	85	116-1	b L	Early bid; weakened

7Pyc SocialiteR. Edison Jr. · J. CarrizalesEdison Jr. · CarrizalesA90 76 93▲▲+8@trip 936-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +890 76 93@trip 93A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 76 93

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jose Carrizales 26% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Brookes Golden Girl 9-2, R3: Shezadashincartel 3-1, R4: Special Ivory Kisses 9-2

60D LAYOFF

Runs for $15,500 today after a $25,000 race last time. Off 63 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	DED	1.59091f D	DeSaix S25k	2nd/8 -½L	90	9.8-1	L	Rally;drift in; missed
8/7	DED	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	7th/9 -3¼L	76	5.8-1	L	Bumped; drift out late
6/27	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9 by hd	93	5.6-1	L	Solid rally; best late

8Jl See Ya ManE. Martinez · L. Martinez Jr.Martinez · Martinez Jr.B85 87 90►≡@trip 8110-1Fair 10-19%► Steady85 87 90 ≡@trip 81B3

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–90 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 87 90

Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Kj Man Or Rain 8-1, R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1 · Trainer R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R6: Kj Man Elealicious 3-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Runs for $15,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. A 62-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	DED	1.59091f D	sLQHBSalJuv50k	6th/6 by hd	85	7.3-1	b L	Early bid; weakened
8/8	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl12000	4th/9 -2½L	87	12-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	Won/10 by nk	90	4.3-1	b L	Dueled; proved best

9Ella De CosP. Espinosa · B. AlcantaraEspinosa · AlcantaraC81 85 76▲+4@trip 8120-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +481 85 76@trip 81C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 85 76

Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Check Moonin 8-5, R4: Give Them No Choice 15-1, R7: San Lorenzo N Black 4-1 · Trainer R2: Rh La Diva 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Barbara Alcantara takes over the training from Erica Arteaga. Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 28d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n1x	5th/10 -1¾L	81	13-1	b L	Mild try; evenly
7/9	DED	1.13636f D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7 by hd	85	4.3-1	b L	Duel late; prevailed
5/22	DED	1.13636f D	MCL 7k	Won/7 by ½	76	3.5-1	b L	Solid rally; just up

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Allowance · $15,500 purse

Field

9 runners

Purse

$15,500

Post

8:15 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 14%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 One Dashin Esperanza (a tactical type, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 89 · 87 · 94. Backup is #5 Jp Fast Dash at 8-5. Use #8 Jl See Ya Man in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 JP FAST DASH (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#5 JP FAST DASH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.7% to their 30.6%).
#3 MUCHO MAN ROUTE — our #9 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 19.9%).
#4 ONE DASHIN ESPERANZA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 13.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 ELLA DE COS (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Ragnar The Great, #2 Jrs Mucho Speed, #3 Mucho Man Route.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Ragnar The Great2Jrs Mucho Speed3Mucho Man Route4One Dashin Esperanza5Jp Fast Dash6Easee Win7Pyc Socialite8Jl See Ya Man9Ella De Cos

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ragnar The Great

Jrs Mucho Speed

Mucho Man Route

One Dashin Esperanza

Jp Fast Dash

Easee Win

Pyc Socialite

Jl See Ya Man

Ella De Cos

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