R6 Evangeline Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

8:40 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $22,500 · 8 runners8:40 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $22K · State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Wild Blood FortunesL. Palomo · K. RobertsPalomo · RobertsB80 86 77►≡@trip 848-1Fair 8-110%► Steady80 86 77 ≡@trip 84B

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 86 77

    Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-51 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rustic Chic 12-1, R3: Senoritas Candy Can 12-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5 · Trainer R3: Runaway Freighttrain 8-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R7: San Lorenzo N Black 4-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Runs for $22,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 18; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29DED1.59091f DfsLQHBSalDeb50k6th/9 -1¾L8010-1b LLate interest
    8/8DED1.59091f DsFutTrl120005th/9 -3L8648-1b LBobbled; even try
    6/19DED1.59091f DsFutTrl150006th/8 -3L7714-1b LFractious;bump;no bid
  2. 2Kj Eye Your CashLSL. Rodriguez · L. KeithRodriguez · KeithC75 85 72►@trip 7215-1Fair 15-16%► Steady75 85 72@trip 72CLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 85 72

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-57 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Grand Charming Elan 20-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Larry D Keith takes over the training from Philip Jr Calais. A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
    RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 44 top-3 in 88 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/8DED1.59091f DsFutTrl120008th/9 -5¼L7516-1b LDrifted out; no bid
    7/24DED1f DMCL 15kWon/10857.7-1b LGate to wire; held on
    7/9DED1.36364f DsMd200006th/9 -2¼L728.9-1b LBroke in; evenly
  3. 3Kj Man ElealiciousE. Martinez · L. Martinez Jr.Martinez · Martinez Jr.A85 84 88►≡@trip 893-1Fair 5-116%► Steady85 84 88 ≡@trip 89A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 88

    Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Kj Man Or Rain 8-1, R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1 · Trainer R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1

    Last out was 4th, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at EVD.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Bobble; brk in sharply last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 204d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1.36364f DfsAlw22500n2l4th/10 -1½L8517-1b LBobble;brk in sharply
    8/27DED1.13636f DsAlw24000n2l5th/8 -½L842.4-1b LBump; bid; hung
    8/8DED1.59091f DsFutTrl120004th/9 -½L882.2-1b LDuel early; hung
  4. 4Rose NightB. Ransom · V. HaywoodRansom · HaywoodA91 85 64▲▲+16↕@trip 779-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best91 85 64 ↕@trip 77A3

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–91 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 85 64

    Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Vann Haywood 31% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1 +1 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 89 for the next best. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 85 to 91.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days ago
    RECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9EVD1.13636f DfsMd20000Won/10912.2-1b LSpeed; lasted
    6/25DED1.13636f DsMd500003rd/10 -1¾L854.2-1b LSteady gain;up show
    5/22DED1.13636f DsMdSpWt9th/10 -2½L642.9-1b LPinch back; no bid
  5. 5Ekg Shez FabulousL. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealB81 84 80►@trip 845-1Fair 6-115%► Steady81 84 80@trip 84B1

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 84 80

    Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1 · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R7: Evelin Fly With Me 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Jockey switch: Leonardo Palomo last out, Lucas Constantin today. Moves up from stakes to allowance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/7DED1.59091f DFutTrl50006th/9 -4¾L8114-1b LMild try; evenly
    6/26DED1½f DfsAlw26000n2l2nd/7 -½L844.8-1b LLate rush; 2nd best
    5/30DED1.59091f DsAlw26000n2l3rd/5 -1L806.0-1b LGame effort
  6. 6Lynns Sweet AngelS. Ramirez · G. WilliamsRamirez · WilliamsC83 75 70▲▲+16↕@trip 7720-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best83 75 70 ↕@trip 77C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–83 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 75 70

    Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Gregory O Williams 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fireballs Deluxe 5-2, R7: Elgavachosexy 20-1

    Figures are climbing: 70, 75, 83 over its last three. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 259d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17EVD1f DfsMdSpWt2nd/9838.4-1b LFract;hard fought loss
    10/2EVD1.36364f DMCL 5kc4th/10 -½L758.2-1b LFought gamely
    8/14DED1.13636f DfsMd100004th/10 by hd705.7-1b LDuel;driftin late;hung
  7. 7Cherub RockR. Hernandez · S. FloresHernandez · FloresB78 83 75►≡@trip 8412-1Fair 15-16%► Steady78 83 75 ≡@trip 84B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 83 75

    Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-30 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Rh La Diva 15-1, R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R7: Meagans Huckleberry 5-2 · Trainer R7: Swiftie 7-2

    7th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 259d back)
    RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 7 here: 7 wins, 17 top-3 in 49 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7EVD1.36364f DfsAlw22500n2l7th/10 -2L7838-1b LBmp; even effort
    8/21DED1.36364f DfsAlw24000n2l4th/9 by nk8317-1b LEarly bid; hung
    6/26DED1½f DfsAlw26000n2l5th/7 -¾L752.9-1b LBroke in; bid; weaken
  8. 8Lovin My Wine★J. Garcia Jr. · T. EllisGarcia Jr. · EllisA91 79@trip 918-5Fair 3-126%—91 79@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 912

    Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 79

    ★ Best at the trip 91
    Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Jrs Jess Toasted 10-1, R3: McKenzie Foose 15-1 · Trainer R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1
    WON LAST

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 91. Won last out in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago
    RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 8 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3EVD1.36364f DsMdSpWtWon/9914.4-1b LBrkin;driftout;bstlate
    4/30DED1½f DfsFutTrl100003rd/9 -1¼L7938-1b LGamely late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART300 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

Field
8 runners
Purse
$22,500
Post
8:40 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#5 · 15%

Allowance, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Ekg Shez Fabulous (a tactical type, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 81 · 84 · 80. Backup is #8 Lovin My Wine at 8-5. Use #4 Rose Night in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #8 LOVIN MY WINE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #8 LOVIN MY WINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.9% to their 30.0%).
  • #3 KJ MAN ELEALICIOUS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.5%).
  • #4 ROSE NIGHT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Wild Blood Fortunes, #2 Kj Eye Your Cash, #3 Kj Man Elealicious.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Wild Blood Fortunes2Kj Eye Your Cash3Kj Man Elealicious4Rose Night5Ekg Shez Fabulous6Lynns Sweet Angel7Cherub Rock8Lovin My Wine

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Wild Blood Fortunes
0
2
Kj Eye Your Cash
0
3
Kj Man Elealicious
0
4
Rose Night
0
5
Ekg Shez Fabulous
0
6
Lynns Sweet Angel
0
7
Cherub Rock
0
8
Lovin My Wine
0
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.