1Wild Blood FortunesL. Palomo · K. RobertsPalomo · RobertsB80 86 77►≡@trip 848-1Fair 8-110%
► Steady80 86 77 ≡@trip 84BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 86 77
Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-51 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R2: Rustic Chic 12-1, R3: Senoritas Candy Can 12-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5 · Trainer R3: Runaway Freighttrain 8-1, R4: Mansa Musaa 8-5, R7: San Lorenzo N Black 4-160D LAYOFFRuns for $22,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 18; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 DED 1.59091f D fsLQHBSalDeb50k 6th/9 -1¾L 80 10-1 b L Late interest 8/8 DED 1.59091f D sFutTrl12000 5th/9 -3L 86 48-1 b L Bobbled; even try 6/19 DED 1.59091f D sFutTrl15000 6th/8 -3L 77 14-1 b L Fractious;bump;no bid 2Kj Eye Your CashLSL. Rodriguez · L. KeithRodriguez · KeithC75 85 72►@trip 7215-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady75 85 72@trip 72CLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 85 72
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-57 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)60D LAYOFFLarry D Keith takes over the training from Philip Jr Calais. A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 13d agoRECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 44 top-3 in 88 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 DED 1.59091f D sFutTrl12000 8th/9 -5¼L 75 16-1 b L Drifted out; no bid 7/24 DED 1f D MCL 15k Won/10 85 7.7-1 b L Gate to wire; held on 7/9 DED 1.36364f D sMd20000 6th/9 -2¼L 72 8.9-1 b L Broke in; evenly 3Kj Man ElealiciousE. Martinez · L. Martinez Jr.Martinez · Martinez Jr.A85 84 88►≡@trip 893-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady85 84 88 ≡@trip 89ACard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 88
Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R2: Kj Man Or Rain 8-1, R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1 · Trainer R3: One Big Storm 5-2, R5: Jl See Ya Man 10-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1Last out was 4th, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at EVD.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Bobble; brk in sharply last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 204d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 EVD 1.36364f D fsAlw22500n2l 4th/10 -1½L 85 17-1 b L Bobble;brk in sharply 8/27 DED 1.13636f D sAlw24000n2l 5th/8 -½L 84 2.4-1 b L Bump; bid; hung 8/8 DED 1.59091f D sFutTrl12000 4th/9 -½L 88 2.2-1 b L Duel early; hung 4Rose NightB. Ransom · V. HaywoodRansom · HaywoodA91 85 64▲▲+16↕@trip 779-2Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best91 85 64 ↕@trip 77A3Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–91 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 85 64
Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Vann Haywood 31% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1, R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1 +1 moreCLASS DROPWON LASTTops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 89 for the next best. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 85 to 91.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days agoRECORD B Ransom from post 4 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 EVD 1.13636f D fsMd20000 Won/10 91 2.2-1 b L Speed; lasted 6/25 DED 1.13636f D sMd50000 3rd/10 -1¾L 85 4.2-1 b L Steady gain;up show 5/22 DED 1.13636f D sMdSpWt 9th/10 -2½L 64 2.9-1 b L Pinch back; no bid 5Ekg Shez FabulousL. Constantin · P. LealConstantin · LealB81 84 80►@trip 845-1Fair 6-115%
► Steady81 84 80@trip 84B1Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 84 80
Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Dukes Heir 12-1, R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1 · Trainer R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R7: Evelin Fly With Me 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-160D LAYOFFJockey switch: Leonardo Palomo last out, Lucas Constantin today. Moves up from stakes to allowance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 0 works in 30d, last 36d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/7 DED 1.59091f D FutTrl5000 6th/9 -4¾L 81 14-1 b L Mild try; evenly 6/26 DED 1½f D fsAlw26000n2l 2nd/7 -½L 84 4.8-1 b L Late rush; 2nd best 5/30 DED 1.59091f D sAlw26000n2l 3rd/5 -1L 80 6.0-1 b L Game effort 6Lynns Sweet AngelS. Ramirez · G. WilliamsRamirez · WilliamsC83 75 70▲▲+16↕@trip 7720-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best83 75 70 ↕@trip 77CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–83 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 75 70
Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Gregory O Williams 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hotFigures are climbing: 70, 75, 83 over its last three. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 259d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 EVD 1f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/9 83 8.4-1 b L Fract;hard fought loss 10/2 EVD 1.36364f D MCL 5kc 4th/10 -½L 75 8.2-1 b L Fought gamely 8/14 DED 1.13636f D fsMd10000 4th/10 by hd 70 5.7-1 b L Duel;driftin late;hung 7Cherub RockR. Hernandez · S. FloresHernandez · FloresB78 83 75►≡@trip 8412-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady78 83 75 ≡@trip 84BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 83 75
Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 3-for-63 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-30 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Rh La Diva 15-1, R4: Some Royal Charlatan 20-1, R5: Jp Fast Dash 8-5, R7: Meagans Huckleberry 5-2 · Trainer R7: Swiftie 7-27th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 259d back)RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 7 here: 7 wins, 17 top-3 in 49 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 EVD 1.36364f D fsAlw22500n2l 7th/10 -2L 78 38-1 b L Bmp; even effort 8/21 DED 1.36364f D fsAlw24000n2l 4th/9 by nk 83 17-1 b L Early bid; hung 6/26 DED 1½f D fsAlw26000n2l 5th/7 -¾L 75 2.9-1 b L Broke in; bid; weaken 8Lovin My Wine★J. Garcia Jr. · T. EllisGarcia Jr. · EllisA91 79@trip 918-5Fair 3-126%
—91 79@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 912Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 79
★ Best at the trip 91Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R2: Jrs Jess Toasted 10-1, R3: McKenzie Foose 15-1 · Trainer R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1WON LASTOwns the highest recent figure here at 91. Won last out in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days agoRECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 8 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 EVD 1.36364f D sMdSpWt Won/9 91 4.4-1 b L Brkin;driftout;bstlate 4/30 DED 1½f D fsFutTrl10000 3rd/9 -1¼L 79 38-1 b L Gamely late
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 6
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse
Allowance, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Ekg Shez Fabulous (a tactical type, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 81 · 84 · 80. Backup is #8 Lovin My Wine at 8-5. Use #4 Rose Night in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 LOVIN MY WINE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #8 LOVIN MY WINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.9% to their 30.0%).
- #3 KJ MAN ELEALICIOUS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.5%).
- #4 ROSE NIGHT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 14.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Wild Blood Fortunes, #2 Kj Eye Your Cash, #3 Kj Man Elealicious.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
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Bet types
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