R1 Evangeline Downs · Optional Claiming $20,000

6:35 PM ET · 870 Yards Dirt · $24,500 · 7 runners6:35 PM · 4.0f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $24K · Optional Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Bt Gameboy (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 8 tries. Not in our top three.

1Dukes Heir▼L. Constantin · W. ThomasConstantin · ThomasB73 81 75▼-5≡@trip 7312-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -573 81 75 ≡@trip 73B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 81)

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 73–81 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 81 75

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 81)

Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer William B Thomas 36% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Nuclear Bomb 7-2, R4: Luvstori 10-1, R6: Ekg Shez Fabulous 5-1, R7: Daddys First 10-1 · Trainer R4: Luvstori 10-1

Jky 0/15 from post 1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 2nd last time in an 8-horse race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 38d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Lucas Constantin has never won from post 1 here (2 top-3 in 15 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	3.95455f D	sSTA	2nd/8	73	19-1	L	Stmbld; duel;weakened
8/7	DED	1.13636f D	sClm10000n3l	9th/9 -½L	81	5.5-1	L	Broke in; steady fade
7/18	DED	1.13636f D	sClm10000n3l	7th/8 -3L	75	6.8-1	L	Broke out; no kick

2Jess Catch ThisJ. Rodriguez · P. Calais Jr.Rodriguez · Calais Jr.A78 64 85►↕@trip 865-1Fair 5-117%► Steady78 64 85 ↕@trip 86A1

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 64 85

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-35 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Philip Jr Calais 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Runaway Freighttrain 8-1 · Trainer R3: Shezadashincartel 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 86. Went to the front early last out.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Aug 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 2 here: 18 wins, 53 top-3 in 134 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	3.95455f D	OC 20k	3rd/7	78	6.6-1	b L	Clr lead; yielded late
7/11	DED	3.95455f D	sLive Oak S50k	6th/6 -6L	64	33-1	b L	No real threat
6/18	DED	3½f D	OC 25k	2nd/7 -½L	85	16-1	b L	Duel outside;nomatch

3Jess Check MooninP. Espinosa · R. Aboytes-SuarezEspinosa · Aboytes-SuarezA86 85 74▲▲+9@trip 888-5Fair 3-127%▲▲ Big jump +986 85 74@trip 88A3

Card model 27% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 85 74

Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez 15% career ★ 11-for-28 on dirt this meet (39%), #2 of 42

Also today · Jockey R4: Give Them No Choice 15-1, R5: Ella De Cos 20-1, R7: San Lorenzo N Black 4-1

WON LAST4/4 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at EVD at 0.6-1. Moves up from optional claiming to optional claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wrally; cleared. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 100d ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 3 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 25 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	3.95455f D	OC 20k	Won/7 by 1½	86	0.6-1	b L	5wrally; cleared
8/21	DED	2f D	sOC15000	3rd/8 -1¼L	85	29-1	b L	Gamely late
6/6	DED	3.95455f D	VrglBondS25k	5th/6 -7L	74	23-1	b L	Wide turn;no late kick

4Bt Gameboy★LSJ. Blalock · W. ReedBlalock · ReedB73 76 79▼-4≡@trip 9110-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -473 76 79 ≡@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 91LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 73–79 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 76 79
★ Best at the trip 91LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jalen Blalock 14% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer William Reed 31% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
CLASS UP
Figures have slipped: 79, 76, 73 over its last three. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and optional claiming now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 16 (3F in :37.40), 0 works in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 EVD 3.95455f D OC 15k 4th/7 -3L 73 35-1 L Mild belated bid
8/27 DED 3.95455f D sOC10000 6th/8 -4¼L 76 8.6-1 L No real threat
7/3 DED 3.95455f D sSTA 4th/6 -2½L 79 15-1 L Late interest

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	EVD	3.95455f D	OC 15k	4th/7 -3L	73	35-1	L	Mild belated bid
8/27	DED	3.95455f D	sOC10000	6th/8 -4¼L	76	8.6-1	L	No real threat
7/3	DED	3.95455f D	sSTA	4th/6 -2½L	79	15-1	L	Late interest

5Jess Cheer For MeB. Ransom · G. MasonRansom · MasonC71 68 81▼-5@trip 8120-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -571 68 81@trip 81C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 68 81

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 10-for-66 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gary Shane Mason 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Love That Ash 15-1, R3: Wagon My Detail 5-1, R5: Ragnar The Great 15-1, R6: Rose Night 9-2 +1 more · Trainer this race: Buckle Up Blue 7-2

60D LAYOFF

A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, optional claiming today. Gets a new rider, B Ransom replacing Pedro Chavarria Espinosa.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 199 days ago

RECORD B Ransom from post 5 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 49 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	DED	3.95455f D	Clm 7k b	4th/6 -2¼L	71	6.5-1	b L	No real threat
7/25	DED	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	4th/5 -3¼L	68	3.6-1	b L	No real threat
6/13	DED	2½f D	sOC7500	6th/6 -4L	81	19-1	b L	In back; no factor

6Fireballs DeluxeS. Ramirez · L. HuitronRamirez · HuitronA84 81 82▲+3≡@trip 845-2Fair 7-223%▲ Up +384 81 82 ≡@trip 84A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 80–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 81 82

Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 23 · Trainer Lira Jesus Huitron 30% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Lynns Sweet Angel 20-1, R7: Elgavachosexy 20-1

CLASS UP3/4 board here

2nd of 33 at 1F on Sep 24, in :11.60. Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 282d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	3.95455f D	OC 20k	2nd/7 -1L	84	7.5-1	b L	Late try; outkicked
8/15	DED	3.95455f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6	81	0.9-1	b L	Speed; caught
7/3	DED	3.95455f D	sSTA	Won/6	82	7.6-1	b L	Duel late; prove best

7Buckle Up BlueU. Luna · G. MasonLuna · MasonB76 82 76►@trip 827-2Fair 6-115%► Steady76 82 76@trip 82B

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 76

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Gary Shane Mason 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Ss Apollo Road 20-1, R5: Easee Win 15-1, R7: Bugs Gone Rogue 15-1 · Trainer this race: Jess Cheer For Me 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

Fastest 3F work of its morning on Aug 8 (:34.20), a sign it is training forwardly. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 8 (3F in :34.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 7 here: 7 wins, 28 top-3 in 72 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	3.95455f D	OC 20k	5th/7 -5L	76	4.7-1	L	Bmp; failed to menace
8/6	DED	3.95455f D	sAlw27000b	3rd/5 -4L	82	17-1	L	Late try; best of rest
7/16	DED	3.95455f D	sAlw28000b	5th/6 -8L	76	4.8-1	L	Showed little

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $20,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$24,500

Post

6:35 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 17%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 870 Yards: 45.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Jess Catch This (a tactical type, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 78 · 64 · 85. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Fireballs Deluxe at 5-2. Use #3 Jess Check Moonin in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 JESS CHECK MOONIN (8-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
#3 JESS CHECK MOONIN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (28.6% to their 30.2%).
#6 FIREBALLS DELUXE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.4%).
#7 BUCKLE UP BLUE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.7% to their 17.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 JESS CATCH THIS — we make it 15.6%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Dukes Heir, #2 Jess Catch This, #3 Jess Check Moonin.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Dukes Heir2Jess Catch This3Jess Check Moonin4Bt Gameboy5Jess Cheer For Me6Fireballs Deluxe7Buckle Up Blue

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dukes Heir

Jess Catch This

Jess Check Moonin

Bt Gameboy

Jess Cheer For Me

Fireballs Deluxe

Buckle Up Blue

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