Pick sheet

Race 16:35 PM Clm 7500b

1.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Hezas Sin Tachas, is 23% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 Hezas Sin Tachas ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -19 ↕ Up and down 66–90

Jockey B. Ransom · Trainer D. Rhodes · KEE 8: 3-2-1 · Dist 29: 3-3-3 · best fig at 1½f dirt 86 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	3.95455f D	sSTA	7th/8 -1L	66	7.4-1	b L	Dueled; gave way
8/20	DED	2½f D	OC 10k	4th/8 -3L	90	36-1	b L	Even effort
7/3	DED	2½f D	Clm 10k	5th/8 -2¾L	87	28-1	b L	Mild try; evenly

Case: Last out 7th/8 -1L in the sSTA at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 66-90-87. Best at today's distance 86. 3-for-29 at the distance. 3-for-8 at Evangeline Downs. D. Rhodes / B. Ransom.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Whata Jessie ML 2-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +7 · career best

Jockey R. Edison Jr. · Trainer J. Carrizales · KEE 3: 1-0-1 · Dist 23: 3-4-3 · best fig at 1½f dirt 83 · 126 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	OC 10k	2nd/7 -1¼L	92	10-1	b L	Steady gain; up 2nd
6/11	DED	1.13636f D	OC 10k	5th/9 -2L	85	5.8-1	b L	Late gain
5/14	DED	1.13636f D	OC 20k	7th/8 -2L	79	11-1	b L	Fractious gate;no bid

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC10000 at DED. Last Brisnet figures 92-85-79. Best at today's distance 83. 3-for-23 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Evangeline Downs. J. Carrizales / R. Edison Jr..

Knock: Off 126 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 San Lorenzo Patrona ML 8-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 78–85 Last out 5th/9 by nk in the sClm7500 at DED. Last Brisnet figures 83-85-79. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-18 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Evangeline Downs. R. Aboytes-Suarez / L. Rodriguez. Knock: Off 78 days.

Jockey L. Rodriguez · Trainer R. Aboytes-Suarez · KEE 4: 0-0-1 · Dist 18: 2-1-1 · best fig at 1½f dirt 85 · 78 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DED	1½f D	sClm7500	5th/9 by nk	83	18-1	L	Early bid; faded
7/18	DED	1.13636f D	Clm 7k	4th/8 -1L	85	3.8-1	L	Gamely late;up 4th
5/15	DED	1.36364f D	sOC15000	7th/10 -3¾L	79	27-1	L	Even try

Longshot #3 Joncades Fly By ML 20-1 Fair 15-1 Model #7 ▼▼ Big drop -21 ↕ Up and down 59–81 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 80)

Jockey A. Morales · Trainer L. Hernandez · KEE 4: 0-0-0 · Dist 10: 1-0-2 · best fig at 1½f dirt 85 · 10 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	EVD	1f D	sClm15000n2l	6th/6 -1¾L	59	2.7-1	b L	Bmp; lost path
6/10	DED	1½f D	sAlw26000n2l	7th/9 -2¾L	80	6.5-1	b L	Showed little
5/23	DED	1½f D	sAlw25000n2l	5th/7 -2½L	81	6.7-1	b L	No real threat

Case: Last out 6th/6 -1¾L in the sClm15000n2l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 59-80-81. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Evangeline Downs. L. Hernandez / A. Morales.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #1 Black Jack Billy (7-2) has the best figure in the field at 1½f dirt: 107 from 7 tries, record at the distance 11: 3-1-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #8 · B #5, #6, #7 · C #3, #4

Angles: #3 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 80) · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #6 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R1 Evangeline Downs · Claiming $7,500

6:35 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $11,000 · 8 runners6:35 PM · 1½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $11K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Black Jack Billy (7-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 107 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.

1Black Jack Billy★R. Cabrera · G. RosalesCabrera · RosalesA107 84 88▲▲+23↕@trip 1077-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best107 84 88 ↕@trip 107A★ Best at the trip 107

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–107 · Best fig at today's trip 107 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 107 84 88

★ Best at the trip 107

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-28 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Noon Train 2-1, R7: Louisiana Down Perry 10-1 · Trainer R4: Hes Guilty 12-1

180D+ LAYOFFJky 10/46 from post 1

Returns from a 269-day break, the biggest in the field. Owns the highest recent figure here at 107.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 1 here: 10 wins, 22 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/4	LAD	1.59091f D	sOC20000	4th/9 -1¼L	107	13-1	b L	Late kick
12/18	EVD	1.81818f D	Alw n3l	Won/6 by hd	84	4.8-1	b L	Drift out; ran dwn ldr
11/22	EVD	1.59091f D	sClm12500n2l	Won/6	88	2.7-1	b L	Drew clear late

2Whata JessieR. Edison Jr. · J. CarrizalesEdison Jr. · CarrizalesA92 85 79▲+7@trip 832-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +7 · career best92 85 79@trip 83A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 85 79

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 12-for-76 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose Carrizales 26% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Spicey Train 6-1, R4: Hes Guilty 12-1, R7: A Party To Remember 8-5

60D LAYOFF

Last out was 2nd, 1¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at DED. Has moved up each time out, 79 to 85 to 92.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	OC 10k	2nd/7 -1¼L	92	10-1	b L	Steady gain; up 2nd
6/11	DED	1.13636f D	OC 10k	5th/9 -2L	85	5.8-1	b L	Late gain
5/14	DED	1.13636f D	OC 20k	7th/8 -2L	79	11-1	b L	Fractious gate;no bid

3Joncades Fly By▼LSA. Morales · L. HernandezMorales · HernandezC59 80 81▼▼-21↕@trip 8520-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2159 80 81 ↕@trip 85C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 80)LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–81 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 80 81

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (59 vs 80)LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 3-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2, R7: Gabby 14 15-1

0/4 board here

Drops from $15,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Changes barns, from Adalberto Miranda to Leonel Hernandez.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 25d back

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	EVD	1f D	sClm15000n2l	6th/6 -1¾L	59	2.7-1	b L	Bmp; lost path
6/10	DED	1½f D	sAlw26000n2l	7th/9 -2¾L	80	6.5-1	b L	Showed little
5/23	DED	1½f D	sAlw25000n2l	5th/7 -2½L	81	6.7-1	b L	No real threat

4Jess Deluxe▼U. Luna · R. VidanaLuna · VidanaC54 81 80▼▼-25↕@trip 8112-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2554 81 80 ↕@trip 81C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 81 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-67 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Rene Saias Vidana 16% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Tdz Fastdashin Eagle 7-2, R4: Grace N Motion 6-1, R7: Cb Apollitical Baby 15-1

60D LAYOFF0/3 board here

Shortens up to 330 yards after going 870 yards. Back after 98 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 7; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 4 here: 16 wins, 44 top-3 in 90 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/25	DED	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	5th/5 -2¼L	54	15-1	b L	Duel early; faded late
7/3	DED	2½f D	Clm 10k	7th/8 -3¾L	81	18-1	b L	No real threat
6/10	DED	3½f D	OC 15k	5th/8 -2L	80	5.4-1	b L	Chased; weakened

5Kalies Fast MagicJ. Garcia Jr. · L. KeithGarcia Jr. · KeithB83 85 83►≡@trip 866-1Fair 8-110%► Steady83 85 83 ≡@trip 86B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 85 83

Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Jla Time To Shine 9-2, R3: Rf Rampaging Blood 20-1, R6: Golden T 5-1 · Trainer R4: Grand D 5-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

2nd of 14 at 1F on Sep 17, in :11.60. Beaten ½ length for 4th in a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at DED.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Broke in; bumped last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 44 days ago

RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 5 here: 6 wins, 14 top-3 in 28 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DED	1½f D	sClm7500	4th/9 -½L	83	13-1	b L	Broke in; bumped
6/4	DED	1.36364f D	sClm7500b	4th/6	85	4.2-1	b L	Speed;drift in;caught
5/16	DED	1.59091f D	sClm7500	5th/9 -¾L	83	8.8-1	b L	Mild try; evenly

6Logans Tee Cos▼Y. Rodriguez · E. JeaneRodriguez · JeaneB77 75 67▲+6@trip 7715-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +677 75 67@trip 77B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 67
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Emily Jeane 24% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R3: First Lady Trump 3-1, R6: Magical Difference 8-1, R7: Last Comment 8-1
180D+ LAYOFFCLASS DROP
218 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Figures are climbing: 67, 75, 77 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 6 here: 4 wins, 18 top-3 in 44 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
3/27 LAD 1.36364f D Clm 5k 8th/8 -1¼L 77 27-1 b L No impact
1/19 LAD 1.81818f D Clm 7k 6th/9 -1L 75 42-1 b L Bmpd;outpaced
11/29 EVD 1.81818f D sClm5000b 3rd/5 67 9.1-1 b L Hard fought loss
7San Lorenzo PatronaL. Rodriguez · R. Aboytes-SuarezRodriguez · Aboytes-SuarezB83 85 79►≡@trip 858-1Fair 6-115%► Steady83 85 79 ≡@trip 85B3
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 85 79
Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-59 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez 15% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 46
Also today · Jockey R2: Luci B 5-2, R3: Party B 6-1, R4: Grand D 5-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1 · Trainer R2: Spicey Train 6-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1
60D LAYOFF
New trainer: Juan C Garcia had it last time, Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez now. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:12.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (1F in :12.40), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 7 here: 8 wins, 19 top-3 in 56 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/14 DED 1½f D sClm7500 5th/9 by nk 83 18-1 L Early bid; faded
7/18 DED 1.13636f D Clm 7k 4th/8 -1L 85 3.8-1 L Gamely late;up 4th
5/15 DED 1.36364f D sOC15000 7th/10 -3¾L 79 27-1 L Even try
8Hezas Sin TachasB. Ransom · D. RhodesRansom · RhodesA66 90 87▼▼-19↕@trip 865-2Fair 7-223%▼▼ Big drop -1966 90 87 ↕@trip 86A1
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–90 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 90 87
Jockey B Ransom 26% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Dustin Rhodes 23% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Famousliltres Socks 12-1, R4: One Sweet Lil Patsy 20-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1, R7: Bayou Teche Barbie 20-1 · Trainer R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Runs for $11,000 today after a $21,500 race last time. Back to 330 yards off a 870 yards race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 81d back)
RECORD B Ransom from post 8 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 24 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 EVD 3.95455f D sSTA 7th/8 -1L 66 7.4-1 b L Dueled; gave way
8/20 DED 2½f D OC 10k 4th/8 -3L 90 36-1 b L Even effort
7/3 DED 2½f D Clm 10k 5th/8 -2¾L 87 28-1 b L Mild try; evenly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/27	LAD	1.36364f D	Clm 5k	8th/8 -1¼L	77	27-1	b L	No impact
1/19	LAD	1.81818f D	Clm 7k	6th/9 -1L	75	42-1	b L	Bmpd;outpaced
11/29	EVD	1.81818f D	sClm5000b	3rd/5	67	9.1-1	b L	Hard fought loss

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$11,000

Post

6:35 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#8 · 23%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.09

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Hezas Sin Tachas (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 66 · 90 · 87. Backup is #2 Whata Jessie at 2-1. Use #7 San Lorenzo Patrona in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 WHATA JESSIE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#2 WHATA JESSIE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 26.0%).
#8 HEZAS SIN TACHAS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 22.3%).
#1 BLACK JACK BILLY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 SAN LORENZO PATRONA (8-1) — our fair 11.0% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: last out: "Early bid; faded" — finished with authority

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Black Jack Billy, #2 Whata Jessie, #3 Joncades Fly By.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Black Jack Billy2Whata Jessie3Joncades Fly By4Jess Deluxe5Kalies Fast Magic6Logans Tee Cos7San Lorenzo Patrona8Hezas Sin Tachas

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Black Jack Billy

Whata Jessie

Joncades Fly By

Jess Deluxe

Kalies Fast Magic

Logans Tee Cos

San Lorenzo Patrona

Hezas Sin Tachas

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