Pick sheet

Race 58:15 PM Alw 15000n2l

1F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Ebony James, is 37% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Ebony James ML 8-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 84–86

Jockey J. Rodriguez · Trainer W. Reed · KEE 4: 1-1-1 · Dist 13: 1-3-4 · best fig at 1f dirt 86 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9	86	6.9-1	b L	Gd speed; caught late
8/27	DED	1.59091f D	sAlw24000n2l	3rd/7 -½L	84	8.2-1	b L	Speed;caught;miss 2nd
7/17	DED	1.13636f D	sAlw26000n2l	5th/9 -2¼L	86	6.3-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw15825n2l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 86-84-86. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-13 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Evangeline Downs. W. Reed / J. Rodriguez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Jp Icy Corona ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +6 ≡ Steady 77–86

Jockey N. Castaneda · Trainer F. Lopez · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 5: 1-1-0 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 by nk	86	6.1-1	b	Steady gain place
8/14	DED	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	8th/10 -3L	80	4.6-1	b	Off slow; no threat
6/13	DED	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 6000	9th/9 -3¾L	77	39-1	b	Broke in; steady fade

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw15825n2l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 86-80-77. 1-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. F. Lopez / N. Castaneda.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Eagles First Love ML 7-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 87–90 Lasix off Last out 6th/10 -2½L in the DbyTrl 5000 at DED. Last Brisnet figures 89-90-90. 1-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Evangeline Downs. L. Hernandez / A. Morales. Knock: Off 190 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Morales · Trainer L. Hernandez · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 9: 1-3-0 · 190 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/24	DED	1½f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/10 -2½L	89	22-1	b L	In tight; mild try
3/21	LAD	1.59091f D	FNL	5th/9 -1½L	90	12-1	b L	Game effort
2/24	LAD	1.59091f D	MDT	2nd/8 -¾L	90	1.3-1	b L	Late surge for place

Longshot #2 Je Favoritejessjumpn ML 8-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -20 ↕ Up and down 68–90

Jockey P. Espinosa · Trainer J. Estrada · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · Dist 12: 1-3-1 · best fig at 1f dirt 90 · 56 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	SRR	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	10th/10 -2¾L	68	5.4-1	b	No menace
8/20	SRR	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	2nd/5	89	3.2-1	b	Outfinished;2nd best
5/20	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/8 by ½	90	2.7-1	b L	Cruised late

Case: Last out 10th/10 -2¾L in the Alw31100n2l at SRR. Last Brisnet figures 68-89-90. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Evangeline Downs. J. Estrada / P. Espinosa.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #3 San Lorenzo Lunita (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 1f dirt: 92 from 2 tries, record at the distance 5: 1-1-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #7 · B #1, #2, #3 · C #6

R5 Evangeline Downs · Allowance · $15,000 purse

8:15 PM ET · 220 Yards Dirt · $15,000 · 7 runners8:15 PM · 1f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $15K · Allowance · $15,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 San Lorenzo Lunita (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 92 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Ebony JamesJ. Rodriguez · W. ReedRodriguez · ReedB86 84 86►≡@trip 868-5Fair 9-537%► Steady86 84 86 ≡@trip 86B1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 86

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer William Reed 31% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Beautiful Heart 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last start: 3rd in a 9-horse allowance race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Apr 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 1 here: 22 wins, 51 top-3 in 130 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9	86	6.9-1	b L	Gd speed; caught late
8/27	DED	1.59091f D	sAlw24000n2l	3rd/7 -½L	84	8.2-1	b L	Speed;caught;miss 2nd
7/17	DED	1.13636f D	sAlw26000n2l	5th/9 -2¼L	86	6.3-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly

2Je FavoritejessjumpnLSP. Espinosa · J. EstradaEspinosa · EstradaB68 89 90▼▼-20↕@trip 908-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -2068 89 90 ↕@trip 90BLS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 89 90
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jose Estrada 26% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Windstreame 5-2, R4: Sassy Classic Chic 4-1 · Trainer R4: Ll I Dont Know 3-1
LASIX 1ST
Drops from allowance to allowance. Jose Estrada takes over the training from Jose R Estrada.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 79d ago
RECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 2 here: 6 wins, 16 top-3 in 32 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 SRR 1.36364f D Alw n2l 10th/10 -2¾L 68 5.4-1 b No menace
8/20 SRR 1.13636f D Alw n2l 2nd/5 89 3.2-1 b Outfinished;2nd best
5/20 DED 1.13636f D MSW Won/8 by ½ 90 2.7-1 b L Cruised late
3San Lorenzo Lunita★L. Rodriguez · R. Aboytes-SuarezRodriguez · Aboytes-SuarezB81 92 78►@trip 9212-1Fair 15-17%► Steady81 92 78@trip 92B★ Best at the trip 92
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 92 78
★ Best at the trip 92
Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-59 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez 15% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 46
Also today · Jockey R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R2: Luci B 5-2, R3: Party B 6-1, R4: Grand D 5-1 · Trainer R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R2: Spicey Train 6-1
60D LAYOFFJky 11/60 from post 3
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 90 next best. New trainer: Juan C Garcia had it last time, Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez now.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 32d ago)
RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 3 here: 11 wins, 29 top-3 in 60 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/14 DED 1.59091f D Alw n2l 7th/10 -2¼L 81 29-1 b L Evenly
2/10 LAD 1f D MSW Won/10 92 2.8-1 b L Bmpd; winners effort
10/18 EVD 1.36364f D MSW 4th/8 -½L 78 10-1 b L Steady try

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	DED	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	7th/10 -2¼L	81	29-1	b L	Evenly
2/10	LAD	1f D	MSW	Won/10	92	2.8-1	b L	Bmpd; winners effort
10/18	EVD	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/8 -½L	78	10-1	b L	Steady try

4Jp Icy CoronaN. Castaneda · F. LopezCastaneda · LopezA86 80 77▲+6≡3-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +686 80 77 ≡A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 77–86 · Last 3 figs 86 80 77

Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career 9-for-50 on dirt this meet (18%), #2 of 24 · Trainer Fernando Lopez 26% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Jky 12/37 from post 4

Figures are climbing: 77, 80, 86 over its last three. Beaten a neck for 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 27 (1F in :11.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD Noe Castaneda from post 4 here: 12 wins, 17 top-3 in 37 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 by nk	86	6.1-1	b	Steady gain place
8/14	DED	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	8th/10 -3L	80	4.6-1	b	Off slow; no threat
6/13	DED	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 6000	9th/9 -3¾L	77	39-1	b	Broke in; steady fade

5TentadorraF. Garcia · F. JimenezGarcia · JimenezA89 89 90▲+3@trip 905-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +389 89 90@trip 90A

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 89 90

Jockey Flavio Garcia 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Fidencio L Jimenez 23% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Mda Sweet Bar Cartel 7-2 · Trainer R6: Mda Sweet Bar Cartel 7-2

60D LAYOFF2/3 board here

Returns from a 98-day break. Changes barns, from Orlando Orozco to Fidencio L Jimenez.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/25	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -¾L	89	7.9-1	b L	Mild try; evenly
6/3	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -1½L	89	6.9-1	b L	Bumped; even try
5/7	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 by hd	90	11-1	b L	Dueled; just missed

6Famous TequilaL. Palomo · J. SanchezPalomo · SanchezC80 81 60▲▲+1215-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1280 81 60C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Last 3 figs 80 81 60
Jockey Leonardo Palomo 9-for-54 on dirt this meet (17%), #3 of 24 · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #2 of 46
Jockey switch: Ali Rivera last out, Leonardo Palomo today. Finished 2nd last time in a 9-horse allowance race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 140d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 0½f D Alw n2l 2nd/9 — 17-1 b Just missed
8/16 GIL 1.59091f D DbyTrl 9000 6th/9 -2¼L 80 19-1 b L In contention weakened
7/9 RET 1.36364f D Alw n2l 6th/10 by nk 81 14-1 b No menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	0½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9	—	17-1	b	Just missed
8/16	GIL	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 9000	6th/9 -2¼L	80	19-1	b L	In contention weakened
7/9	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 by nk	81	14-1	b	No menace

7Eagles First LoveA. Morales · L. HernandezMorales · HernandezA89 90 90►≡7-2Fair 7-112%► Steady89 90 90 ≡A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–90 · Last 3 figs 89 90 90

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 3-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R7: Gabby 14 15-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Freshened 190 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Runs for $15,000 after a $5,000 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/24	DED	1½f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/10 -2½L	89	22-1	b L	In tight; mild try
3/21	LAD	1.59091f D	FNL	5th/9 -1½L	90	12-1	b L	Game effort
2/24	LAD	1.59091f D	MDT	2nd/8 -¾L	90	1.3-1	b L	Late surge for place

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Allowance · $15,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

8:15 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 37%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 220 Yards: 11.52

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Ebony James (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 86 · 84 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Jp Icy Corona at 3-1. Use #7 Eagles First Love in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 EBONY JAMES (8-5) — our number agrees.
#1 EBONY JAMES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.8% to their 30.2%).
#4 JP ICY CORONA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 19.6%).
#7 EAGLES FIRST LOVE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 17.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Ebony James, #2 Je Favoritejessjumpn, #3 San Lorenzo Lunita.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Ebony James2Je Favoritejessjumpn3San Lorenzo Lunita4Jp Icy Corona5Tentadorra6Famous Tequila7Eagles First Love

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ebony James

Je Favoritejessjumpn

San Lorenzo Lunita

Jp Icy Corona

Tentadorra

Famous Tequila

Eagles First Love

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