Pick sheet

Race 47:50 PM OClm 15000Late Pick 4 starts

1.4F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Everyday Deeds, is 33% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Everyday Deeds ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -7

Jockey A. Morales · Trainer L. Hernandez · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 12: 2-3-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 88 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EVD	1.81818f D	sAlw23500n3l	6th/10 by nk	79	6.6-1	b	Bobble; bid; outkicked
8/27	DED	1.59091f D	sAlw24000n2l	Won/7	89	1.7-1	b	Duel;best stride late
6/25	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/6 by hd	88	1.2-1	b	Solid rally;best late

Case: Last out 6th/10 by nk in the sAlw23500n3l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 79-89-88. Best at today's distance 88. 2-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Evangeline Downs. L. Hernandez / A. Morales.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Sassy Classic Chic ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 ★ Best at 1.36364f dirt: 105

Jockey P. Espinosa · Trainer G. Holliday · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 14: 2-3-1 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 105 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9 by hd	89	3.4-1	b	Late surge
9/6	SRR	1½f D	Alw nc	6th/10 -2L	105	24-1	b	Even effort
8/21	SRR	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/6 by nk	88	3.3-1	b	Just missed

Case: Last out won in the Alw15825n2l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 89-105-88. Best at today's distance 105. 2-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. G. Holliday / P. Espinosa.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Ll I Dont Know ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 Last out 6th/9 -¾L in the OC20000 at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 89-87-89. Best at today's distance 89. 3-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Evangeline Downs. J. Estrada / S. Hernandez. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey S. Hernandez · Trainer J. Estrada · KEE 6: 0-2-0 · Dist 12: 3-2-0 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 89 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1.13636f D	OC 20k	6th/9 -¾L	89	6.4-1	b L	Outkicked late
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	OC 20k	5th/9 -2L	87	7.8-1	b L	Early try; hung
6/5	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n4l	4th/7	89	3.8-1	b L	Speed; caught late

Longshot #6 Hes Guilty ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -4

Jockey R. Edison Jr. · Trainer G. Rosales · KEE 4: 1-1-0 · Dist 18: 3-1-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 90 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	4th/10 -1L	84	26-1	L	Outkicked late
8/27	DED	1.36364f D	sOC15000	7th/7 by nk	87	3.5-1	L	Speed; missed
8/7	DED	1.13636f D	sClm10000n3l	Won/9	94	5.7-1	L	Dueled; proved best

Case: Last out 4th/10 -1L in the OC15000 at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 84-87-94. Best at today's distance 90. 3-for-18 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Evangeline Downs. G. Rosales / R. Edison Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #8 · B #3, #4, #6 · C #1, #7

R4 Evangeline Downs · Optional Claiming $15,000

7:50 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $15,500 · 8 runners7:50 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $16K · Optional Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Freedom FyrstJ. Ramirez · T. SoileauRamirez · SoileauC86 74 70▲▲+9@trip 8715-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +986 74 70@trip 87C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 74 70

Jockey J R Ramirez 33% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Trevor Soileau 22% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Returns from a 108-day break. New trainer: Victor Ibarra had it last time, Trevor Soileau now.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Broke in; bumped start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/15	FMT	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n3lc	2nd/10 by hd	86	2.5-1	b L	Broke in;bumped start
4/16	RP	1.59091f D	Clm 20k n3l	6th/10 -¾L	74	3.5-1	b L	Cln trip; not enuf
3/12	RP	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	9th/10 -3½L	70	19-1	b L	Steadily faded

2Grand DL. Rodriguez · L. KeithRodriguez · KeithA93 88 95▲+4@trip 955-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +493 88 95@trip 95A
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 88 95
Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-59 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%)
Also today · Jockey R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R2: Luci B 5-2, R3: Party B 6-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1 · Trainer R1: Kalies Fast Magic 6-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Back after 161 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Last start: 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at DED.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Aug 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 44 top-3 in 88 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/23 DED 1.36364f D Alw n2l 2nd/9 93 2.2-1 b L Dueled; missed
5/7 DED 1.13636f D Alw n2l 3rd/7 88 1.8-1 b L Dueled; outfnished
3/19 LAD 1½f D MCL 20k Won/10 95 1.9-1 b L Going away

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/23	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9	93	2.2-1	b L	Dueled; missed
5/7	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7	88	1.8-1	b L	Dueled; outfnished
3/19	LAD	1½f D	MCL 20k	Won/10	95	1.9-1	b L	Going away

3Grace N MotionU. Luna · L. Martinez Jr.Luna · Martinez Jr.B89 95 83▲+46-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +489 95 83B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 89 95 83

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-67 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-48 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Deluxe 12-1, R2: Tdz Fastdashin Eagle 7-2, R7: Cb Apollitical Baby 15-1 · Trainer R3: Tg Apolitical Mama 12-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Josue Ponce to Luis R Jr Martinez. Finished 4th in a 10-horse allowance race at DED, beaten 1¼ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hopped; late try. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Apr 8; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 3 here: 9 wins, 23 top-3 in 67 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	4th/10 -1¼L	89	3.9-1	b	Hopped; late try
6/3	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	Won/9 by nk	95	1.8-1	b	Bump;rally; best
5/2	DED	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9 by 1	83	1.8-1	b	Drift in;rally;just up

4Everyday DeedsA. Morales · L. HernandezMorales · HernandezB79 89 88▼-7@trip 882-1Fair 2-134%▼ Down -779 89 88@trip 88B1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 89 88

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 3-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2, R7: Gabby 14 15-1

Class relief: allowance last time, optional claiming today. Leonel Hernandez takes over the training from Adalberto Miranda.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Bobble; bid; outkicked last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 102d ago

RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EVD	1.81818f D	sAlw23500n3l	6th/10 by nk	79	6.6-1	b	Bobble; bid; outkicked
8/27	DED	1.59091f D	sAlw24000n2l	Won/7	89	1.7-1	b	Duel;best stride late
6/25	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/6 by hd	88	1.2-1	b	Solid rally;best late

5Ll I Dont KnowS. Hernandez · J. EstradaHernandez · EstradaA89 87 89▲+4@trip 893-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +489 87 89@trip 89A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 87 89

Jockey Saul Ramirez Hernandez 38% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jose Estrada 26% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Knighttimecartel 5-2 · Trainer R5: Je Favoritejessjumpn 8-1

Changes barns, from Jose R Estrada to Jose Estrada. 2nd of 18 at 1F on May 19, in :12.00.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 101d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1.13636f D	OC 20k	6th/9 -¾L	89	6.4-1	b L	Outkicked late
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	OC 20k	5th/9 -2L	87	7.8-1	b L	Early try; hung
6/5	DED	1.36364f D	Alw n4l	4th/7	89	3.8-1	b L	Speed; caught late

6Hes GuiltyLSR. Edison Jr. · G. RosalesEdison Jr. · RosalesB84 87 94▼-4@trip 9012-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -484 87 94@trip 90BLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 87 94

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 12-for-76 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-28 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Whata Jessie 2-1, R2: Spicey Train 6-1, R7: A Party To Remember 8-5 · Trainer R1: Black Jack Billy 7-2

CLASS UP2/4 board here

Figures have slipped: 94, 87, 84 over its last three. 4th last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 172d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	4th/10 -1L	84	26-1	L	Outkicked late
8/27	DED	1.36364f D	sOC15000	7th/7 by nk	87	3.5-1	L	Speed; missed
8/7	DED	1.13636f D	sClm10000n3l	Won/9	94	5.7-1	L	Dueled; proved best

7One Sweet Lil PatsyB. Ransom · M. HernandezRansom · HernandezC42 82 80▼▼-42@trip 9020-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -4242 82 80@trip 90C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -42 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 42 82 80

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Manuel Dejesus Hernandez 31% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R2: Famousliltres Socks 12-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1, R7: Bayou Teche Barbie 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Was running in allowance; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. The last race on the record (DED, Aug 28) shows no finish position.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.20 on Jan 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD B Ransom from post 7 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 28 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	DED	1½f D	sAlw26000n3l	DNF	—	95-1	b L	Lost action; eased
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	10th/10 -6L	—	73-1	b L	Set back on rig
6/13	DED	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 6000	9th/9 -14L	42	37-1	b L	In back; no factor

8Sassy Classic Chic★P. Espinosa · G. HollidayEspinosa · HollidayA89 105 88▲▲+12@trip 1054-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +1289 105 88@trip 105A★ Best at the trip 1052
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 105 88
★ Best at the trip 105
Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Gus W Iii Holliday 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Windstreame 5-2, R5: Je Favoritejessjumpn 8-1 · Trainer R3: Windstreame 5-2
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Tops the field on speed figures, a 105 against 95 for the next best. Winner of a 9-horse allowance race at EVD last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 24; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 EVD 1.36364f D Alw n2l Won/9 by hd 89 3.4-1 b Late surge
9/6 SRR 1½f D Alw nc 6th/10 -2L 105 24-1 b Even effort
8/21 SRR 1.13636f D Clm 15k n2l 2nd/6 by nk 88 3.3-1 b Just missed

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $15,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$15,500

Post

7:50 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 34%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Everyday Deeds (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 79 · 89 · 88. Backup is #8 Sassy Classic Chic at 4-1. Use #5 Ll I Dont Know in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 EVERYDAY DEEDS (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 EVERYDAY DEEDS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.8% to their 26.0%).
#5 LL I DONT KNOW — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.5%).
#8 SASSY CLASSIC CHIC — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Freedom Fyrst, #2 Grand D, #3 Grace N Motion.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Freedom Fyrst2Grand D3Grace N Motion4Everyday Deeds5Ll I Dont Know6Hes Guilty7One Sweet Lil Patsy8Sassy Classic Chic

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Freedom Fyrst

Grand D

Grace N Motion

Everyday Deeds

Ll I Dont Know

Hes Guilty

One Sweet Lil Patsy

Sassy Classic Chic

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