Pick sheet

Race 37:25 PM Md 15000

1.1F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Windstreame, is 26% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Windstreame ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 77–81

Jockey P. Espinosa · Trainer G. Holliday · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 7: 0-2-0 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 77 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -1¾L	80	13-1	b L	Bumped repeatedly
8/13	DED	1.13636f D	sMd25000	2nd/10 -1¼L	77	4.1-1	b L	Late rush; up for 2nd
6/27	DED	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -5L	81	3.7-1	b L	Drifted out; no threat

Case: Last out 7th/9 -1¾L in the sMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 80-77-81. Best at today's distance 77. 0-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. G. Holliday / P. Espinosa.

Knock: 0-for-7 at the distance.

Contender #8 First Lady Trump ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -18 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (63 vs 78)

Jockey Y. Rodriguez · Trainer A. Carrillo · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 6: 0-1-2 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 84 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	fsMdSpWt	9th/10 -2L	63	7.5-1	b L	Pinched back
8/6	DED	1.36364f D	fsMd50000	3rd/9 -3L	78	3.0-1	b L	Gamely late
6/26	DED	1.13636f D	sMd15000	3rd/10 -¾L	84	4.2-1	b L	Late surge;miss 2nd

Case: Last out 9th/10 -2L in the fsMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 63-78-84. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. A. Carrillo / Y. Rodriguez.

Knock: 0-for-6 at the distance.

Use #5 Ivorys Secret Bb ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 76–84 Last out 3rd in the sMd20000 at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 80-76-79. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. D. Rhodes / A. Morales. Knock: 0-for-7 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Morales · Trainer D. Rhodes · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 7: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 84 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	1.13636f D	sMd20000	3rd/9 by nk	80	12-1	b L	Ins duel; game third
8/21	DED	1.13636f D	fsMd10000	5th/10 -2L	76	13-1	b L	Late interest
7/24	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	7th/9 -1½L	79	8.5-1	b L	Broke in; bid; faded

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #8 · B #1, #2, #9 · C #3, #7, #10 · ? #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 80) · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (63 vs 78)

R3 Evangeline Downs · Maiden Claiming $15,000

7:25 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $16,000 · 10 runners7:25 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $16K · Maiden Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tg Apolitical MamaF. Vargas · L. Martinez Jr.Vargas · Martinez Jr.B68 78 78▼▼-9@trip 7812-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -968 78 78@trip 78B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 78 78

Jockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Luis R Jr Martinez 32% career 4-for-48 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Apollitical Brad 4-1 · Trainer R4: Grace N Motion 6-1

Was running in maiden claiming $20,000; today's maiden claiming $15,000 is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 260d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1.13636f D	fsMd20000	7th/10 -1¼L	68	36-1	b L	Failed to menace
8/28	DED	1.13636f D	sMd20000	4th/8	78	4.0-1	b L	Broke in;speed;weaken
7/16	DED	1f D	sMd10000	3rd/9 -1L	78	2.9-1	b L	Broke in;gamely late

2Party B▼L. Rodriguez · J. BarronRodriguez · BarronB74 80 60▲▲+11↕@trip 806-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +1174 80 60 ↕@trip 80B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 80)

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 80 60

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 80)

Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-59 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose D Barron 26% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R2: Luci B 5-2, R4: Grand D 5-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1

3rd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 37d ago)

RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 44 top-3 in 88 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/10 -1L	74	33-1	b L	Game third
7/24	DED	1f D	MCL 15k	4th/10 -2¾L	80	48-1	b L	Broke slow; late rush
7/10	DED	1.36364f D	sMd20000	9th/10 -3L	60	18-1	b L	Early try; faded

3Rf Rampaging BloodJ. Garcia Jr. · M. Flores Jr.Garcia Jr. · Flores Jr.C51 59 69▼▼-13@trip 5920-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1351 59 69@trip 59C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 59 69

Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Mardonio Jr Flores 33% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Kalies Fast Magic 6-1, R2: Jla Time To Shine 9-2, R6: Golden T 5-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 59 to 51. Juan Francisco Jr Garcia takes over from Leonardo Rodriguez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp 2 sides; squeezed), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Feb 8; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 3 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 28 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	1.13636f D	sMd20000	9th/9 -3L	51	20-1	b L	Bmp 2 sides; squeezed
8/13	DED	1.13636f D	sMd25000	9th/10 -1¾L	59	3.0-1	b L	Drifted out; no kick
4/30	DED	1½f D	fsFutTrl10000	6th/9 -2¼L	69	0.9-1	b L	No real threat

4Burnin BuxR. Hernandez · E. McCulleyHernandez · McCulley?12-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Rey O Hernandez 38% career 4-for-68 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Erica McCulley 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Zoomin For Bux and Ttt Monti Dash breeding. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 3.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago
RECORD Rey O Hernandez from post 4 here: 9 wins, 28 top-3 in 70 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)
Last three races
First start. By Zoomin For Bux out of Ttt Monti Dash (Kas I Said So)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/3 DED 1f :12.60 breezing 1/1 ● bullet from gate
9/22 DED 1f :13.60 breezing 5/5 from gate
8/11 DED 1f :13.60 breezing 2/3 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/3	DED	1f	:12.60	breezing	1/1	● bullet from gate
9/22	DED	1f	:13.60	breezing	5/5	from gate
8/11	DED	1f	:13.60	breezing	2/3	from gate

5Ivorys Secret BbA. Morales · D. RhodesMorales · RhodesA80 76 79►≡@trip 844-1Fair 6-115%► Steady80 76 79 ≡@trip 84A3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 79

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Dustin Rhodes 23% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R6: Trains A Leavin 3-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1

CLASS UP

Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 204d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	1.13636f D	sMd20000	3rd/9 by nk	80	12-1	b L	Ins duel; game third
8/21	DED	1.13636f D	fsMd10000	5th/10 -2L	76	13-1	b L	Late interest
7/24	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	7th/9 -1½L	79	8.5-1	b L	Broke in; bid; faded

6WindstreameP. Espinosa · G. HollidayEspinosa · HollidayA80 77 81►≡@trip 775-2Fair 3-126%► Steady80 77 81 ≡@trip 77A1

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–81 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 77 81

Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Gus W Iii Holliday 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Sassy Classic Chic 4-1, R5: Je Favoritejessjumpn 8-1 · Trainer R4: Sassy Classic Chic 4-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $15,000. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped repeatedly), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 108 days ago

RECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 6 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 25 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -1¾L	80	13-1	b L	Bumped repeatedly
8/13	DED	1.13636f D	sMd25000	2nd/10 -1¼L	77	4.1-1	b L	Late rush; up for 2nd
6/27	DED	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -5L	81	3.7-1	b L	Drifted out; no threat

7Louisiana TornadoB. Cortes · M. KennedyCortes · KennedyC59 76 64▼▼-1315-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1359 76 64C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 59 76 64

Jockey Beny Bautista Cortes · Trainer M Brent Kennedy 24% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Mo Jetta 5-2 · Trainer R7: Mo Jetta 5-2

60D LAYOFF

A 86-day gap since its last race. A big drop, maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden claiming $15,000, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled; bump; pinched last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/6	DED	1.36364f D	fsMd50000	9th/9 -5L	59	7.0-1	b L	Bobbled;bump;pinched
6/19	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl15000	7th/8 -2L	76	23-1	b L	Fractious;bid; faded
5/20	DED	1½f D	sMd20000	8th/10 -2¾L	64	11-1	b L	Early bid; faded

8First Lady Trump▼Y. Rodriguez · A. CarrilloRodriguez · CarrilloA63 78 84▼▼-18@trip 843-1Fair 7-221%▼▼ Big drop -1863 78 84@trip 84A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (63 vs 78)2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 78 84

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (63 vs 78)

Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Arturo Solis Carrillo 18% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 46

Also today · Jockey R1: Logans Tee Cos 15-1, R6: Magical Difference 8-1, R7: Last Comment 8-1 · Trainer R6: Magical Difference 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 82 for the next best. Figures have slipped: 84, 78, 63 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pinched back. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.40 on Feb 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 8 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 37 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	fsMdSpWt	9th/10 -2L	63	7.5-1	b L	Pinched back
8/6	DED	1.36364f D	fsMd50000	3rd/9 -3L	78	3.0-1	b L	Gamely late
6/26	DED	1.13636f D	sMd15000	3rd/10 -¾L	84	4.2-1	b L	Late surge;miss 2nd

9Feline B FlashyL. Constantin · D. RubinConstantin · RubinB82 68@trip 828-1Fair 12-18%—82 68@trip 82B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 68
Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Donald Rubin 22% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
CLASS UP
Finished 5th in a 10-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at EVD, beaten a neck. Class relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden claiming $15,000 today.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 31d back
RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 EVD 1.13636f D fsMd20000 5th/10 by nk 82 44-1 b L Good try
8/14 DED 1.13636f D fsMd10000 6th/10 -1L 68 46-1 b L Bump; brief try;weaken

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1.13636f D	fsMd20000	5th/10 by nk	82	44-1	b L	Good try
8/14	DED	1.13636f D	fsMd10000	6th/10 -1L	68	46-1	b L	Bump; brief try;weaken

10Fearless TrainR. Hernandez · B. AlcantaraHernandez · AlcantaraC66 63 56▲▲+13↕20-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best66 63 56 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–66 · Last 3 figs 66 63 56

Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 4-for-68 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)

Figures are climbing: 56, 63, 66 over its last three. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp; pinched back), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d ago

RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 10 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 26 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	EVD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	10th/10 -2¾L	66	94-1	b L	Bmp; pinched back
7/24	DED	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	9th/9 -5L	63	76-1	b L	Bumped; no bid
7/2	DED	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	6th/8 -3½L	56	80-1	b L	Mild bid;evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $15,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$16,000

Post

7:25 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 26%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.83

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Windstreame (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 80 · 77 · 81. Backup is #8 First Lady Trump at 3-1. Use #5 Ivorys Secret Bb in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 WINDSTREAME (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 WINDSTREAME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 22.0%).
#8 FIRST LADY TRUMP — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.2%).
#5 IVORYS SECRET BB — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 15.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Tg Apolitical Mama, #2 Party B, #3 Rf Rampaging Blood.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Tg Apolitical Mama2Party B3Rf Rampaging Blood4Burnin Bux5Ivorys Secret Bb6Windstreame7Louisiana Tornado8First Lady Trump9Feline B Flashy10Fearless Train

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tg Apolitical Mama

Party B

Rf Rampaging Blood

Ivorys Secret Bb

Windstreame

Louisiana Tornado

First Lady Trump

Feline B Flashy

Fearless Train

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