Pick sheet

Race 27:00 PM Md Sp Wt

1.5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Noon Train, is 27% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Noon Train ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -4 ★ Best at 1½f dirt: 88 ≡ Steady 83–91

Jockey R. Cabrera · Trainer F. Campos Jr. · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 13: 0-3-1 · best fig at 1½f dirt 88 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	EVD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	6th/10 -1L	83	10-1	b L	One paced
7/25	DED	2½f D	MSW	4th/9 -2½L	83	1.7-1	b L	Steady gain;up 4th
6/25	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6 -1L	87	5.2-1	b L	Late rush; 2nd best

Case: Last out 6th/10 -1L in the sMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 83-83-87. Best at today's distance 88. 0-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Evangeline Downs. F. Campos Jr. / R. Cabrera.

Knock: 0-for-13 at the distance.

Contender #5 Luci B ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 45–81

Jockey L. Rodriguez · Trainer J. Lopez · KEE 3: 0-2-0 · Dist 13: 0-3-0 · best fig at 1½f dirt 83 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	EVD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 -½L	78	1.6-1	b L	Best late
7/5	GIL	1.59091f D	FNL	6th/10 -2L	74	15-1	b L	Bobbled start some eff
6/17	DED	1.81818f D	fsDbyTrl 15000	6th/6 -9L	45	21-1	b L	Pinch back; steadied

Case: Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 78-74-45. Best at today's distance 83. 0-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Evangeline Downs. J. Lopez / L. Rodriguez.

Knock: 0-for-13 at the distance.

Use #2 Tdz Fastdashin Eagle ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 4th/7 -¾L in the sMdSpWt at DED. Last Brisnet figures 77-81-68. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Evangeline Downs. N. Eschete / U. Luna. Knock: Off 70 days. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Jockey U. Luna · Trainer N. Eschete · KEE 3: 0-1-1 · Dist 4: 0-1-1 · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/7 -¾L	77	6.7-1	b L	Even effort
12/10	EVD	1f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 by nk	81	1.8-1	b L	Outnoded for 2nd
11/28	EVD	1.81818f D	sFutTrl15000	6th/8 -¾L	68	49-1	b L	Pressed; gave way

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #5 · B #2, #3, #6 · C #7

Angles: #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 77)

R2 Evangeline Downs · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

7:00 PM ET · 330 Yards Dirt · $21,500 · 7 runners7:00 PM · 1½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $22K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Spicey TrainR. Edison Jr. · R. Aboytes-SuarezEdison Jr. · Aboytes-SuarezA85 88 66▲▲+9↕@trip 856-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +985 88 66 ↕@trip 85A
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–88 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 88 66
Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 12-for-76 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez 15% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 46
Also today · Jockey R1: Whata Jessie 2-1, R4: Hes Guilty 12-1, R7: A Party To Remember 8-5 · Trainer R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1
60D LAYOFFLASIX 1STWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at DED. Moves up from maiden claiming $7,500 to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/15 DED 1½f D sMd7500 Won/6 85 1.7-1 b Dq'd- med violation
7/17 DED 1f D MCL 10k 3rd/10 -1L 88 3.8-1 b Bumped; good try
5/2 DED 1.59091f D MSW 8th/9 -3½L 66 14-1 b Mild early try; faded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	DED	1½f D	sMd7500	Won/6	85	1.7-1	b	Dq'd- med violation
7/17	DED	1f D	MCL 10k	3rd/10 -1L	88	3.8-1	b	Bumped; good try
5/2	DED	1.59091f D	MSW	8th/9 -3½L	66	14-1	b	Mild early try; faded

2Tdz Fastdashin EagleU. Luna · N. EscheteLuna · EscheteB77 81 68►7-2Fair 5-116%► Steady77 81 68B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 81 68

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-67 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Nason Eschete 22% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Deluxe 12-1, R4: Grace N Motion 6-1, R7: Cb Apollitical Baby 15-1

60D LAYOFF2/3 board here

Jockey switch: Jose Ariel Rodriguez last out, Ubaldo Luna today. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 2 here: 6 wins, 32 top-3 in 84 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/7 -¾L	77	6.7-1	b L	Even effort
12/10	EVD	1f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/7 by nk	81	1.8-1	b L	Outnoded for 2nd
11/28	EVD	1.81818f D	sFutTrl15000	6th/8 -¾L	68	49-1	b L	Pressed; gave way

3Jla Time to ShineJ. Garcia Jr. · T. EllisGarcia Jr. · EllisB76 78 68►@trip 789-2Fair 6-114%► Steady76 78 68@trip 78B
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 78 68
Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Kalies Fast Magic 6-1, R3: Rf Rampaging Blood 20-1, R6: Golden T 5-1 · Trainer this race: Famousliltres Socks 12-1
60D LAYOFF
Finished 3rd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at DED, beaten ½ length. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d ago
RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 3 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 28 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/13 DED 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/6 -½L 76 2.4-1 L Early bid; hung
2/16 LAD 1.36364f D sMdSpWt 4th/9 -½L 78 24-1 L Late interest
1/19 LAD 1.59091f D sMdSpWt 8th/10 -2L 68 30-1 b L Faded
4Noon Train★R. Cabrera · F. Campos Jr.Cabrera · Campos Jr.A83 83 87▼-4≡@trip 882-1Fair 5-227%▼ Down -483 83 87 ≡@trip 88A★ Best at the trip 881
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 83–91 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 87
★ Best at the trip 88
Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Black Jack Billy 7-2, R7: Louisiana Down Perry 10-1 · Trainer R6: Rcmly Heredero 10-1
Still looking for the first win after 13 starts. Rolando Cabrera takes over from Rene Hernandez in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 46d ago
RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 4 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 41 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 EVD 1.59091f D sMdSpWt 6th/10 -1L 83 10-1 b L One paced
7/25 DED 2½f D MSW 4th/9 -2½L 83 1.7-1 b L Steady gain;up 4th
6/25 DED 1½f D sMdSpWt 2nd/6 -1L 87 5.2-1 b L Late rush; 2nd best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/13	DED	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/6 -½L	76	2.4-1	L	Early bid; hung
2/16	LAD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	4th/9 -½L	78	24-1	L	Late interest
1/19	LAD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	8th/10 -2L	68	30-1	b L	Faded

5Luci BL. Rodriguez · J. LopezRodriguez · LopezA78 74 45▲▲+11↕@trip 835-2Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +1178 74 45 ↕@trip 83A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–81 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 74 45

Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-59 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose U Lopez 26% career 7-for-39 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: San Lorenzo Patrona 8-1, R3: Party B 6-1, R4: Grand D 5-1, R5: San Lorenzo Lunita 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 91 for the next best. Figures are climbing: 45, 74, 78 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 18; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 5 here: 9 wins, 23 top-3 in 60 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	EVD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 -½L	78	1.6-1	b L	Best late
7/5	GIL	1.59091f D	FNL	6th/10 -2L	74	15-1	b L	Bobbled start some eff
6/17	DED	1.81818f D	fsDbyTrl 15000	6th/6 -9L	45	21-1	b L	Pinch back; steadied

6Famousliltres Socks▼B. Ransom · T. EllisRansom · EllisB69 77 79▼▼-8@trip 8112-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -869 77 79@trip 81B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 77)

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 77 79

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (69 vs 77)

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Trey Ellis 29% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R4: One Sweet Lil Patsy 20-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1, R7: Bayou Teche Barbie 20-1 · Trainer this race: Jla Time To Shine 9-2

★ FASTEST WORKJky 6/33 from post 6

Trending the wrong way on speed, 79 to 77 to 69. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Sep 24, in :11.00.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 24; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD B Ransom from post 6 here: 6 wins, 11 top-3 in 33 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	EVD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	8th/10 by nk	69	7.4-1	L	Bmp; faded
8/15	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	5th/10 -3L	77	16-1	b L	Late interest
6/25	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	5th/6 -½L	79	25-1	b L	Duel early;faded late

7Tf Sweets Least OneJ. Villarreal · M. HernandezVillarreal · HernandezC72 49 70▲▲+10↕@trip 7215-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best72 49 70 ↕@trip 72C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 49 70
Jockey Jose Elias Villarreal 31% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Miguel Hernandez 31% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
60D LAYOFF
100 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. New trainer: Correa Jorge Rivas had it last time, Miguel Hernandez now.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/23 RET 1.59091f D MCL 20k 7th/8 -3¼L 72 37-1 b L No menace
5/8 HOU 1.59091f D MSW 9th/9 -5¾L 49 10-1 b L No threat
11/20 EVD 1.59091f D MCL 10k 6th/8 -½L 70 15-1 L Bmp; evenly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/23	RET	1.59091f D	MCL 20k	7th/8 -3¼L	72	37-1	b L	No menace
5/8	HOU	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/9 -5¾L	49	10-1	b L	No threat
11/20	EVD	1.59091f D	MCL 10k	6th/8 -½L	70	15-1	L	Bmp; evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$21,500

Post

7:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 27%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.09

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Noon Train (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 83 · 83 · 87. Backup is #5 Luci B at 5-2. Use #2 Tdz Fastdashin Eagle in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 NOON TRAIN (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 NOON TRAIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 25.5%).
#5 LUCI B — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.9%).
#2 TDZ FASTDASHIN EAGLE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 17.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Spicey Train, #2 Tdz Fastdashin Eagle, #3 Jla Time To Shine.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Spicey Train2Tdz Fastdashin Eagle3Jla Time To Shine4Noon Train5Luci B6Famousliltres Socks7Tf Sweets Least One

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Spicey Train

Tdz Fastdashin Eagle

Jla Time To Shine

Noon Train

Luci B

Famousliltres Socks

Tf Sweets Least One

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.