Pick sheet

Race 68:40 PM Alw 22500n2l

1.4F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Knighttimecartel, is 27% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Knighttimecartel ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 84–90

Jockey S. Hernandez · Trainer K. Weeks · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 5: 1-0-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 90 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	fsAlw22500n2l	3rd/10 -1L	87	1.6-1	b L	Outnodded late
8/22	DED	1.36364f D	sAlw24000n2l	3rd/9 -1L	90	3.7-1	b L	Game effort
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -¾L	84	1.5-1	b L	Fractious; game try

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsAlw22500n2l at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 87-90-84. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. K. Weeks / S. Hernandez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Trains a Leavin ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best

Jockey A. Morales · Trainer D. Rhodes · Dist 7: 1-1-1 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 83 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	DED	1.59091f D	sLQHBSalJuv50k	Won/6 by nk	91	7.4-1	b L	Surged late; just up
8/8	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl12000	4th/8 -¾L	90	36-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly
7/4	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	7th/8 -3¾L	73	3.5-1	b L	Broke in; drifted out

Case: Last out won in the sLQHBSalJuv50k at DED. Last Brisnet figures 91-90-73. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-7 at the distance. D. Rhodes / A. Morales.

Knock: Off 63 days. Never raced at Evangeline Downs.

Use #5 Mda Sweet Bar Cartel ML 7-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -8 ★ Best at 1.36364f dirt: 92 Last out 3rd in the sAlw26000n2l at DED. Last Brisnet figures 81-88-88. Best at today's distance 92. 1-for-4 at the distance. F. Jimenez / F. Garcia. Knock: Off 143 days. Never raced at Evangeline Downs.

Jockey F. Garcia · Trainer F. Jimenez · Dist 4: 1-0-2 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 92 · 143 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/10	DED	1.36364f D	sAlw26000n2l	3rd/10 -¾L	81	1.3-1	b	Gaining; no menace
5/23	DED	1½f D	sLaddFutRG2 G2	4th/9 -2¾L	88	48-1	b	Late rush;up for 4th
5/1	DED	1½f D	sFutTrl10000	3rd/8	88	3.1-1	b	Speed; caught

Longshot #8 Magical Difference ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #4 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best

Jockey Y. Rodriguez · Trainer A. Carrillo · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1.36364f dirt 81 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	EVD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	91	7.7-1	b L	Speed; held
7/2	DED	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8 by hd	75	0.6-1	b L	Duel;won head bob
5/29	DED	1.36364f D	sMd50000	2nd/10 -2¾L	80	1.4-1	b L	Surged late;up for 2nd

Case: Last out won in the sMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 91-75-80. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. A. Carrillo / Y. Rodriguez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #5 · B #6, #7, #8 · C #3, #4

R6 Evangeline Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

8:40 PM ET · 300 Yards Dirt · $22,500 · 8 runners8:40 PM · 1.4f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $22K · State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Trains a LeavinA. Morales · D. RhodesMorales · RhodesA91 90 73▲▲+10@trip 833-1Fair 9-219%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best91 90 73@trip 83A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 90 73

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Dustin Rhodes 23% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, this race: Sunny Boi 12-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse race at DED at 7.4-1. Purse drops from $50,000 to $22,500 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 18d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	DED	1.59091f D	sLQHBSalJuv50k	Won/6 by nk	91	7.4-1	b L	Surged late; just up
8/8	DED	1.59091f D	sFutTrl12000	4th/8 -¾L	90	36-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly
7/4	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	7th/8 -3¾L	73	3.5-1	b L	Broke in; drifted out

2KnighttimecartelS. Hernandez · K. WeeksHernandez · WeeksA87 90 84►≡@trip 905-2Fair 5-227%► Steady87 90 84 ≡@trip 90A1

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 90 84

Jockey Saul Ramirez Hernandez 38% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Kenneth Weeks 30% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Ll I Dont Know 3-1

Jockey switch: Servando Ramirez last out, Saul Ramirez Hernandez today. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at EVD, beaten 1 length.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 115d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	EVD	1.36364f D	fsAlw22500n2l	3rd/10 -1L	87	1.6-1	b L	Outnodded late
8/22	DED	1.36364f D	sAlw24000n2l	3rd/9 -1L	90	3.7-1	b L	Game effort
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -¾L	84	1.5-1	b L	Fractious; game try

3Beautiful HeartJ. Rodriguez · I. Solis-GuevaraRodriguez · Solis-GuevaraC74 97 79▼-4↕@trip 7715-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -474 97 79 ↕@trip 77C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–97 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 97 79

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Ebony James 8-5 · Trainer R7: Bayou Teche Barbie 20-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 92 next best. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 155d ago

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 3 here: 14 wins, 47 top-3 in 115 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	EVD	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	7th/10 -2L	74	13-1	b L	Bmp; no impact
8/29	DED	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7 by nk	97	10-1	b L	Surge late;prove best
7/18	DED	1.81818f D	MSW	5th/10 -2½L	79	24-1	b L	Early try; weakened

4Rcmly HerederoE. Martinez · F. Campos Jr.Martinez · Campos Jr.C82 85 72►@trip 8410-1Fair 12-17%► Steady82 85 72@trip 84C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 85 72

Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 9-for-62 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Noon Train 2-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 184d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	EVD	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	82	3.2-1	b L	Drift in; du; prevail
8/15	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	3rd/9 -1¾L	85	11-1	b	No troubles good speed
7/17	DED	1½f D	sMd50000	10th/10 -3½L	72	22-1	b	Bumped no rally

5Mda Sweet Bar Cartel★F. Garcia · F. JimenezGarcia · JimenezA81 88 88▼▼-8@trip 927-2Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -881 88 88@trip 92A★ Best at the trip 923

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 88 88

★ Best at the trip 92

Jockey Flavio Garcia 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Fidencio L Jimenez 23% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Tentadorra 5-1 · Trainer R5: Tentadorra 5-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 143 days. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Orlando Orozco to Fidencio L Jimenez.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 60d back

RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/10	DED	1.36364f D	sAlw26000n2l	3rd/10 -¾L	81	1.3-1	b	Gaining; no menace
5/23	DED	1½f D	sLaddFutRG2 G2	4th/9 -2¾L	88	48-1	b	Late rush;up for 4th
5/1	DED	1½f D	sFutTrl10000	3rd/8	88	3.1-1	b	Speed; caught

6Sunny BoiB. Ransom · D. RhodesRansom · RhodesB85 72 62▲▲+14↕@trip 8512-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best85 72 62 ↕@trip 85B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 72 62

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Dustin Rhodes 23% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R2: Famousliltres Socks 12-1, R4: One Sweet Lil Patsy 20-1, R7: Bayou Teche Barbie 20-1 · Trainer R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, this race: Trains A Leavin 3-1

Jky 6/33 from post 6

Has moved up each time out, 62 to 72 to 85. Gets a new rider, B Ransom replacing Adrian X Morales.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 260d ago

RECORD B Ransom from post 6 here: 6 wins, 11 top-3 in 33 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	EVD	1.36364f D	sAlw22500n2l	2nd/10 by ns	85	45-1	b L	Dueled; gamely
8/22	DED	1.36364f D	sAlw24000n2l	9th/9 -4½L	72	23-1	b L	In back; no factor
7/4	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	7th/9 -4L	62	12-1	b L	Bobbled start no facto

7Golden TJ. Garcia Jr. · K. RobertsGarcia Jr. · RobertsB91 72@trip 725-1Fair 7-113%—91 72@trip 72B
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 72
Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Kalies Fast Magic 6-1, R2: Jla Time To Shine 9-2, R3: Rf Rampaging Blood 20-1
60D LAYOFFWON LASTJky 0/15 from post 7
155 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DED last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 21d ago
RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia has never won from post 7 here (5 top-3 in 15 rides) · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/29 DED 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt Won/10 91 4.2-1 b L Blew them away
4/30 DED 1½f D fsFutTrl10000 4th/8 -3L 72 4.9-1 b L Duck in early;no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/29	DED	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/10	91	4.2-1	b L	Blew them away
4/30	DED	1½f D	fsFutTrl10000	4th/8 -3L	72	4.9-1	b L	Duck in early;no match

8Magical DifferenceLSY. Rodriguez · A. CarrilloRodriguez · CarrilloB91 75 80▲▲+12@trip 818-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best91 75 80@trip 81BLS

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 75 80

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 13% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Arturo Solis Carrillo 18% career 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 46

Also today · Jockey R1: Logans Tee Cos 15-1, R3: First Lady Trump 3-1, R7: Last Comment 8-1 · Trainer R3: First Lady Trump 3-1

WON LAST

Carries 124 pounds, 5 less than last time. 2nd of 12 at 1F on Aug 29, in :11.20.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 63d ago)

RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 8 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 37 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	EVD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	91	7.7-1	b L	Speed; held
7/2	DED	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8 by hd	75	0.6-1	b L	Duel;won head bob
5/29	DED	1.36364f D	sMd50000	2nd/10 -2¾L	80	1.4-1	b L	Surged late;up for 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $22,500 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$22,500

Post

8:40 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 27%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Knighttimecartel (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 87 · 90 · 84. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Trains A Leavin at 3-1. Use #5 Mda Sweet Bar Cartel in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 KNIGHTTIMECARTEL (5-2) — our number agrees.
#2 KNIGHTTIMECARTEL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 22.6%).
#1 TRAINS A LEAVIN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.7%).
#5 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Trains A Leavin, #2 Knighttimecartel, #3 Beautiful Heart.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Trains A Leavin2Knighttimecartel3Beautiful Heart4Rcmly Heredero5Mda Sweet Bar Cartel6Sunny Boi7Golden T8Magical Difference

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Trains A Leavin

Knighttimecartel

Beautiful Heart

Rcmly Heredero

Mda Sweet Bar Cartel

Sunny Boi

Golden T

Magical Difference

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