Pick sheet

Race 79:05 PM Md Sp Wt

1.1F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, A Party to Remember, is 33% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 A Party to Remember ML 8-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 86–90

Jockey R. Edison Jr. · Trainer T. Guy Jr. · KEE 3: 0-1-0 · Dist 13: 0-4-0 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 90 · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7	87	1.5-1	b L	Dueled late;2nd best
7/17	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8	86	1.7-1	b L	Speed; caught late
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/8	90	1.9-1	b L	Duel early; hung

Case: Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at DED. Last Brisnet figures 87-86-90. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Evangeline Downs. T. Guy Jr. / R. Edison Jr..

Knock: Off 70 days. 0-for-13 at the distance.

Contender #9 Mo Jetta ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -22 ↕ Up and down 70–98 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 90)

Jockey B. Cortes · Trainer M. Kennedy · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 9: 0-5-0 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 90 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.13636f D	MSW	9th/9 -4¾L	70	3.6-1	b L	Step slow;brk out;bmp
6/5	DED	1f D	MSW	2nd/6	90	2.1-1	b L	Brushed;speed;caught
3/26	LAD	1½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/10 -1¾L	98	1.3-1	b L	Clean trip outside

Case: Last out 9th/9 -4¾L in the MdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 70-90-98. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Evangeline Downs. M. Kennedy / B. Cortes.

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #2 Apollitical Brad ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -26 ↕ Up and down 60–87 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (60 vs 86) Last out 9th/10 -1¼L in the sMdSpWt at EVD. Last Brisnet figures 60-86-87. Best at today's distance 90. 0-for-20 at the distance. 0-for-7 at Evangeline Downs. A. Miranda / F. Vargas. Knock: 0-for-20 at the distance.

Jockey F. Vargas · Trainer A. Miranda · KEE 7: 0-0-0 · Dist 20: 0-3-2 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 90 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	EVD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -1¼L	60	2.9-1	b L	Lost path early
8/15	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	86	2.3-1	b L	Game effort
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -1¼L	87	1.8-1	b L	Mild try; evenly

Longshot #4 Cb Apollitical Baby ML 15-1 Fair 12-1 Model #4 Top last-race fig ★ Best at 1.13636f dirt: 96

Jockey U. Luna · Trainer A. Miranda · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 96 · 721 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
11/9	LS	1.13636f D	MSW	2nd/9 -1L	96	6.3-1	b L	Brk out;surge
10/12	LS	1f D	MSW	5th/10 -1¼L	80	13-1	b L	Lugged in;bumped

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 96-80. Best at today's distance 96. 0-for-2 at the distance. A. Miranda / U. Luna.

Knock: Off 721 days. Never raced at Evangeline Downs.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #8, #9 · B #2, #3, #7 · C #1, #5, #6

Angles: #2 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (60 vs 86) · #9 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 90)

R7 Evangeline Downs · Maiden Special Weight

9:05 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $14,000 · 9 runners9:05 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $14K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Cb Apollitical Baby (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 96 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Louisiana Down PerryR. Cabrera · C. CastroCabrera · CastroC69 80 70▼-3@trip 7010-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -369 80 70@trip 70C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 80 70

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Carlos Gabriel Castro 26% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Black Jack Billy 7-2, R2: Noon Train 2-1

60D LAYOFFJky 10/46 from post 1

Back after 127 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Carlos Gabriel Castro takes over the training from Santiago Villaseca.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 25d back

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 1 here: 10 wins, 22 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/26	DED	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/6 -2¾L	69	17-1	b	Early try; faded
5/23	RP	1.36364f D	MCL 10k	3rd/7 -2L	80	12-1	b	Bmpd early; no rally
4/23	RP	1.13636f D	MCL 10k	4th/8 by nk	70	10-1	b	Some late gain

2Apollitical Brad▼F. Vargas · A. MirandaVargas · MirandaB60 86 87▼▼-26↕@trip 904-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -2660 86 87 ↕@trip 90B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (60 vs 86)3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -26 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–87 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 86 87

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (60 vs 86)

Jockey Federico Vargas 29% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Adalberto Miranda 28% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Tg Apolitical Mama 12-1 · Trainer this race: Cb Apollitical Baby 15-1

Jky 0/15 from post 2

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Trending the wrong way on speed, 87 to 86 to 60.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 28d ago)

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD Federico Vargas has never won from post 2 here (7 top-3 in 15 rides) · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	EVD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -1¼L	60	2.9-1	b L	Lost path early
8/15	DED	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	86	2.3-1	b L	Game effort
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -1¼L	87	1.8-1	b L	Mild try; evenly

3Last CommentY. Rodriguez · J. GonzalezRodriguez · GonzalezB79 60 72▲▲+10@trip 758-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best79 60 72@trip 75B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 60 72

Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jaime E Gonzalez 31% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Logans Tee Cos 15-1, R3: First Lady Trump 3-1, R6: Magical Difference 8-1

60D LAYOFF0/3 board here

Freshened 136 days. Watch how its recent works look. Last out was 6th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 3 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 42 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/17	DED	1.81818f D	MSW	6th/10 -1¾L	79	54-1	b L	Bid;drift out;faded
5/16	DED	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -5¼L	60	29-1	b L	Awkward start;no bid
12/18	EVD	1½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -1½L	72	17-1	b L	Mild late kick

4Cb Apollitical Baby★LSU. Luna · A. MirandaLuna · MirandaA96 80@trip 9615-1Fair 12-17%—96 80@trip 96A★ Best at the trip 96LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 96 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 80
★ Best at the trip 96LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 9-for-67 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Adalberto Miranda 28% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Deluxe 12-1, R2: Tdz Fastdashin Eagle 7-2, R4: Grace N Motion 6-1 · Trainer this race: Apollitical Brad 4-1
180D+ LAYOFF
New trainer: Fidel Perez had it last time, Adalberto Miranda now. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 9.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 38d back)
RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 4 here: 16 wins, 44 top-3 in 90 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
11/9 LS 1.13636f D MSW 2nd/9 -1L 96 6.3-1 b L Brk out;surge
10/12 LS 1f D MSW 5th/10 -1¼L 80 13-1 b L Lugged in;bumped

5Jazzy CartelA. Ochoa · L. HuitronOchoa · HuitronC64 24 66▲▲+19@trip 6620-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +1964 24 66@trip 66C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 24 66

Jockey Alejandro Ochoa 26% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Lira Jesus Huitron 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

180D+ LAYOFF0/3 board here

Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Returns from a 1059-day break, the biggest in the field.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 1009d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/7	EVD	1f D	MCL 10k	6th/10 -¾L	64	39-1	b	In mix; veered in
11/21	EVD	1f D	sMdSpWt	7th/7 -5¾L	24	13-1	b	Early traffic; pinched
10/20	EVD	1.13636f D	sMd10000	5th/9 -¾L	66	19-1	b	Came out early; even

6Bayou Teche BarbieB. Ransom · I. Solis-GuevaraRansom · Solis-GuevaraC21@trip 2120-1Fair 30-13%—21@trip 21C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 21 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 21
Jockey B Ransom 26% career 11-for-71 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Hezas Sin Tachas 5-2, R2: Famousliltres Socks 12-1, R4: One Sweet Lil Patsy 20-1, R6: Sunny Boi 12-1 · Trainer R6: Beautiful Heart 15-1
180D+ LAYOFFJky 6/33 from post 6
Changes barns, from Philip Jr Calais to Ismael Solis-Guevara. 233 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 37d ago
RECORD B Ransom from post 6 here: 6 wins, 11 top-3 in 33 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
3/12 LAD 1f D sMd10000 9th/9 -9L 21 13-1 L No factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/12	LAD	1f D	sMd10000	9th/9 -9L	21	13-1	L	No factor

7Gabby 14A. Morales · L. HernandezMorales · HernandezB65 75 78▼▼-10@trip 7815-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1065 75 78@trip 78B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 75 78

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 3-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R3: Ivorys Secret Bb 4-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R1: Joncades Fly By 20-1, R4: Everyday Deeds 2-1, R5: Eagles First Love 7-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Figures have slipped: 78, 75, 65 over its last three. Winless in 10 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped; pinch back. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 7 (1F in :11.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/27	DED	1f D	MCL 5k	7th/9 -½L	65	8.1-1	b	Bumped; pinch back
2/17	LAD	1.13636f D	MCL 7k	7th/10 -1¾L	75	8.4-1	b	Hung late
1/12	LAD	1.13636f D	MCL 5k	8th/10 -2¾L	78	5.9-1	b	Stmbld;bmpd;norlly

8A Party to RememberR. Edison Jr. · T. Guy Jr.Edison Jr. · Guy Jr.A87 86 90►≡@trip 908-5Fair 2-133%► Steady87 86 90 ≡@trip 90A1

Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 90

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 12-for-76 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Teddy L Jr Guy

Also today · Jockey R1: Whata Jessie 2-1, R2: Spicey Train 6-1, R4: Hes Guilty 12-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Maiden through 13 starts. 0 for 13 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Jul 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/7	87	1.5-1	b L	Dueled late;2nd best
7/17	DED	1½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8	86	1.7-1	b L	Speed; caught late
6/27	DED	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/8	90	1.9-1	b L	Duel early; hung

9Mo Jetta▼B. Cortes · M. KennedyCortes · KennedyA70 90 98▼▼-22↕@trip 905-2Fair 3-125%▼▼ Big drop -2270 90 98 ↕@trip 90A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 90)2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–98 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 90 98

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 90)

Jockey Beny Bautista Cortes · Trainer M Brent Kennedy 24% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Louisiana Tornado 15-1 · Trainer R3: Louisiana Tornado 15-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 98. Worked 1F in :12.20 on Aug 21, 3rd of 12 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 71 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.13636f D	MSW	9th/9 -4¾L	70	3.6-1	b L	Step slow;brk out;bmp
6/5	DED	1f D	MSW	2nd/6	90	2.1-1	b L	Brushed;speed;caught
3/26	LAD	1½f D	MCL 10k	2nd/10 -1¾L	98	1.3-1	b L	Clean trip outside

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

9:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#8 · 33%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.83

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 A Party To Remember (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 87 · 86 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Mo Jetta at 5-2. Use #2 Apollitical Brad in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 A PARTY TO REMEMBER (8-5) — our number agrees.
#8 A PARTY TO REMEMBER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.9% to their 29.8%).
#9 MO JETTA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.2% to their 22.1%).
#2 APOLLITICAL BRAD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 CB APOLLITICAL BABY (15-1) — our fair 5.6% is above the morning line's 4.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Louisiana Down Perry, #2 Apollitical Brad, #3 Last Comment.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Louisiana Down Perry2Apollitical Brad3Last Comment4Cb Apollitical Baby5Jazzy Cartel6Bayou Teche Barbie7Gabby 148A Party To Remember9Mo Jetta

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Louisiana Down Perry

Apollitical Brad

Last Comment

Cb Apollitical Baby

Jazzy Cartel

Bayou Teche Barbie

Gabby 14

A Party To Remember

Mo Jetta

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