FL · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $11,000
Claiming $11,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.2
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Burn Indy Burn (early speed, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 71 · 77 · 69. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Charging Aero at 3-1. Use #7 Sutton Breeze in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Class relief: allowance last time, $11,000 claiming today. Beaten 6 lengths for 8th in an 8-horse allowance race at PRM.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $11,000 claiming.
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on May 22, in :47.00. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $11,000 claiming today.
Has moved up each time out, 39 to 44 to 66. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 6th, 4¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL.
Won last out in a 9-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL. A 47-day gap since its last race.
Was 6th of 6 at the first call last time. Worked 4F in :48.20 on Aug 19, 3rd of 32 at the distance.
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 CHARGING AERO (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #2 CHARGING AERO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 20.6%).
- #5 TACONY ROAD — our #7 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 18.3%).
- #7 SUTTON BREEZE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 16.5%).
Value read
- #4 BURN INDY BURN — we make it 14.5%, the morning line implies 11.8%. We're 23.1 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Burn Indy Burn; pressure from #7 Sutton Breeze, #3 Two Thirty A. M.; the shape helps #6 My Cool Hand Luke; and works against #3 Two Thirty A. M., #4 Burn Indy Burn, #7 Sutton Breeze.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Burn Indy Burn
Top of the field by a clear 30-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Burn Indy Burn OVER #2 Charging Aero · #7 Sutton Breeze · #3 Two Thirty A. M.
Key #4 Burn Indy Burn on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Burn Indy Burn / #2 Charging Aero · #7 Sutton Breeze · #3 Two Thirty A. M. / #2 Charging Aero · #7 Sutton Breeze · #3 Two Thirty A. M. · #1 Solo's Fury
#4 Burn Indy Burn keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) *
LATE PICK 5 WITH CARRYOVER (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 4-5-6-7-8)