FL · RACE 7
UPCOMINGAllowance · $27,300 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 96.2
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Steam Powered (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 83 · 83 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Sanzio at 20-1. Use #2 Not For Hire in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Gets a new rider, Keiber J Coa replacing Manuel Americano. A 86-day gap since its last race.
Drops from $20,000 claiming to allowance. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 86 to 76 to 74. Beaten 3½ lengths for 4th in a 5-horse allowance race at FL.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 86 for the next best. Figures have slipped: 90, 85, 83 over its last three.
Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at FL. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 12 (:48.20), a sign it is training forwardly.
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at FL. Best recent figure of 81 sits right around the 83 par.
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Last out was 3rd, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at FL.
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 VALENTINIAN (3-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #8 VALENTINIAN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.5%).
- #3 PALPABLE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 17.3%).
- #7 STEAM POWERED — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.0%, they've got 11.1%.
Value read
- #7 STEAM POWERED — we make it 14.0%, the morning line implies 11.1%. We're 26.4 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #6 SANZIO (20-1) — our fair 5.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Skyler's Starship; pressure from #2 Not For Hire, #3 Palpable; the shape helps #2 Not For Hire, #3 Palpable, #4 Go Yoshida; and works against #1 Skyler's Starship.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#7 Steam Powered (place saver: #6 Sanzio)
#7 Steam Powered rates the best; #6 Sanzio the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#7 Steam Powered · #6 Sanzio
Two standouts with little between them — box #7 Steam Powered and #6 Sanzio both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#7 Steam Powered · #6 Sanzio · #2 Not For Hire
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#7 Steam Powered / #6 Sanzio · #2 Not For Hire · #8 Valentinian · #5 Specialagentjonson / #6 Sanzio · #2 Not For Hire · #8 Valentinian · #5 Specialagentjonson / ALL or #6 Sanzio · #2 Not For Hire · #8 Valentinian · #5 Specialagentjonson
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 7-8)