FL · RACE 6
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $17,500
Claiming $17,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.2
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 King Nique (early speed, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 91 · 88 · 69. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Sir Kartrite at 8-1. Use #1 Canyouhearmerunnin in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
4 wins from 9 starts at this distance. Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse optional claiming race at PRM.
O K Hernandez takes over from Joel Cruz in the saddle. Led at the first call last time.
Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 4th, 4 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at FL.
Was running in optional claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. Gets a new rider, Reylu Gutierrez replacing N R Alvarado.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 81 to 75. Beaten 7¾ lengths for 5th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at FL.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 91, with 88 next best. Class relief: optional claiming last time, optional claiming today.
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at FL, beaten a head. An 87 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 CAPT JAX PARROW (5-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #6 CAPT JAX PARROW — our #4 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.5%).
- #5 BUSTIN AWAY — our #7 number, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 19.7%).
- #4 KING NIQUE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.6%, they've got 13.1%.
Value read
- #4 KING NIQUE — we make it 15.6%, the morning line implies 13.1%. We're 19.0 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 King Nique; pressure from #5 Bustin Away, #7 Sir Kartrite; the shape helps #3 Pompous Prince; and works against #4 King Nique, #5 Bustin Away, #7 Sir Kartrite.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 King Nique
Top of the field by a clear 23-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 King Nique OVER #7 Sir Kartrite · #1 Canyouhearmerunnin · #6 Capt Jax Parrow
Key #4 King Nique on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 King Nique / #7 Sir Kartrite · #1 Canyouhearmerunnin · #6 Capt Jax Parrow / #7 Sir Kartrite · #1 Canyouhearmerunnin · #6 Capt Jax Parrow · #3 Pompous Prince
#4 King Nique keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) *
PICK 3 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 6-7-8)