INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 9

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

14 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

5:36 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#8 · 12%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 330 Yards: 16.28

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Mg Perra (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 76 · 79 · 73. Backup is #9 Hh Bluemoonovrkntuky at 5-2. Use #11 Burning Kiss in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

8Mg Perra

Jockey Luz Daniel Martinez 33% career ★ 8-for-33 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 38 · Trainer Tony Cunningham 28% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Argentina Red 15-1, R4: Siesta Sky 4-1, R4: Unprecedented Kid 12-1, this race: Chelsidashin 25-1

★ FASTEST WORK

0 for 4 at today's distance. A step up in company: maiden claiming $15,000 before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 4 (1F in :11.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L3-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 25d

22ND

9Hh Bluemoonovrkntuky

Jockey German Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer German Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer this race: Zafiro Cartel 15-1

Purse drops from $34,000 to $18,000 against its last start. Off 47 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 146 days ago

M/L5-2

Model14%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last5th · 47d

33RD

11Burning Kiss

Jockey Edgar Diaz 33% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Claudio Barraza 32% career 6-for-41 on dirt this meet (15%)

3/6 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 82 for the next best. Maiden through 6 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brushed st; well back. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 177d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L4-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 25d

44TH

13Flashin Ferrari 123

Jockey Giovani Vazquez-Gomez 27% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jessica A Vazquez 30% career 4-for-40 on dirt this meet (10%)

★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

Figures are climbing: 63, 66, 70 over its last three. The Jul 21 work, 1F in :11.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 21 (1F in :11.80), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 56d

55TH

14R Different Option

Jockey Yovani Flores-Munoz 14% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Shawna Martin 28% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey this race: Jes Make Mine Rare 30-1 · Trainer R5: Officer Gambill 10-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Has moved up each time out, 69 to 83 to 87.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 79d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L7-2

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 23d

4Nachor Joy

Jockey Martin Munoz 28% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ricardo Martinez 32% career ★ 6-for-24 on dirt this meet (25%)

Finished 3rd in an 8-horse stakes race at IND, beaten ¾ length. Worked 1F in :11.40 on Sep 16, 2nd of 7 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)

M/L5-2

Model12%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last3rd · 25d

12Bora Corona

Jockey Diaz Luis Eduardo Luna 34% career 5-for-43 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

180D+ LAYOFF

Returns from a 214-day break, the biggest in the field. Changes barns, from Leonardo Alcala to Samuel Mendoza.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled break last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 0 works in 30d, last 33d ago

M/L5-2

Model12%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last6th · 214d

6Zafiro Cartel

Jockey Cristian Penaloza 14% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer German Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Hh Bluemoonovrkntuky 5-2

Raises its level, maiden claiming $15,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Cristian Penaloza takes over from Antonio Rodriguez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 74 days ago

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last7th · 49d

10Coronas Dash

Jockey Hugo Macias 20% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Hector J Sanchez 34% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)

0/5 board here

Jockey switch: Yovani Flores-Munoz last out, Hugo Macias today. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 97d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

M/L12-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last7th · 25d

1Maria D

Jockey Carlos Ruiz-Cortez 14% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Kenia Hernandez 31% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%)

Debut for this Whata Corona filly, whose dam is Mongoose Cat. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 21d back

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

3Feeling Frosty

Jockey Rolando Del Rio Pina 32% career 3-for-36 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 12-for-115 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Jordans Deal 3-1, R4: Jordan Second Deal 4-1, R6: Takeitandrun 5-2, R7: Lil Gin N Class 5-2

0/3 board here

Sheds 7 pounds from its last start. 3rd of 8 at 1F on Jul 20, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

M/L10-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 25d

7Chelsidashin

Jockey Isidro Banuelos 17% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Tony Cunningham 28% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Argentina Red 15-1, R4: Siesta Sky 4-1, R4: Unprecedented Kid 12-1, this race: Mg Perra 3-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE0/3 board here

9th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Broke in; bumped rival), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

M/L25-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 25d

5Magic Valentime

Jockey Germarius A O'Neal 14% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Myra Aguilar 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Carries 124 pounds, 7 less than last time. Beaten 4½ lengths for 8th in a 10-horse stakes race at IND.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 74d ago

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 25d

2Jes Make Mine Rare

Jockey Yovani Flores-Munoz 14% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Cesar Esqueda 15% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey this race: R Different Option 7-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Last out was 10th, 5¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Gets a new rider, Yovani Flores-Munoz replacing Hugo Macias.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped hard start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

M/L30-1

Model2%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last10th · 84d

At a glance

Market favourite #9 HH BLUEMOONOVRKNTUKY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#9 HH BLUEMOONOVRKNTUKY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 14.2%).
#4 NACHOR JOY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.2%).
#12 BORA CORONA — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 CHELSIDASHIN (25-1) — our fair 2.2% is above the morning line's 1.9%; supported by: last out: "Broke in; bumped rival" — trouble the figure under-credits

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Maria D, #2 Jes Make Mine Rare, #3 Feeling Frosty.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Maria D2Jes Make Mine Rare3Feeling Frosty4Nachor Joy5Magic Valentime6Zafiro Cartel7Chelsidashin8Mg Perra9Hh Bluemoonovrkntuky10Coronas Dash11Burning Kiss12Bora Corona13Flashin Ferrari 12314R Different Option

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hh Bluemoonovrkntuky

R Different Option

Jes Make Mine Rare

Flashin Ferrari 123

Zafiro Cartel

Feeling Frosty

Nachor Joy

Magic Valentime

Chelsidashin

Mg Perra

Coronas Dash

Burning Kiss

Bora Corona

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