INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 7
UPCOMINGFrebll Bby Handicap
Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 101.15
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Itzforever (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 81 · 72 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Watcher at 6-1. Use #3 Lil Gin N Class in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Runs for $55,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Was 10th of 11 at the first call last time.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 85 for the next best. Has won 4 of 8 going today's distance.
Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse race at IND. Purse drops from $150,000 to $55,000 against its last start.
Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in an 11-horse race at IND. Purse drops from $150,000 to $55,000 against its last start.
Runs for $55,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Turns back in 4 days.
Finished 9th in an 11-horse race at IND, beaten 12 lengths. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 82 par for this level.
2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. Has moved up each time out, 66 to 71 to 77.
A 70 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par. Gets a new rider, Victor Lara replacing Joseph C Bealmear.
Figures have slipped: 79, 70, 66 over its last three. Purse drops from $125,000 to $55,000 against its last start.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 LIL GIN N CLASS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 LIL GIN N CLASS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 21.9%).
- #6 ITZFOREVER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.7% to their 19.2%).
- #9 TEMPLE PAYNTER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 17.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Seeyouinabit; pressure from #3 Lil Gin N Class, #5 Rich In Faith; the shape helps #1 Hoosier Promise, #4 Kaboom, #6 Itzforever; and works against #3 Lil Gin N Class, #5 Rich In Faith, #7 Seeyouinabit.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$5 LATE THOROUGHBRED DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA
SUPERFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta