INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 4
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.58
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 El Abeulo (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 41 · 58. Backup is #3 Jims Promise at 4-1. Use #10 Argentina Red in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Fastest 3F work of its morning on Aug 6 (:37.00), a sign it is training forwardly. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 59 against 58 for the next best. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going a mile.
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Sombeyay and Ethel G breeding. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 6).
Unraced; this barn has 147 first-time starters on record and wins 14% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 14.
In the morning works, the Sep 24 work, 3F in :36.60, was the fastest at that distance that morning. With 4 works on record, the first on Sep 11.
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Calculator out of Ten Seventy. Debut for a trainer who is 8% with first-timers, over 49 starts.
First-time starter from a barn that wins 25% of the time with them (20 tried). First career start, by Pataky Kid out of Unusual Mission.
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 14). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 4 works since Jun 4.
Back to 5½ furlongs off a a mile race. A 42 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par.
Worked 4F in :48.20 on Aug 25, 2nd of 21 at the distance. Cuts back from a mile to 5½ furlongs.
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call. Last out was 4th, 9½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND.
Beaten 11 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Best recent figure is 33, well under the 67 par for this level.
Gets a new rider, Samuel E Bermudez replacing Alexander Crispin. Finished 7th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 13 lengths.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 JIMS PROMISE (4-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #5 EL ABEULO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.7%, they've got 12.9%.
- #3 JIMS PROMISE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.2%).
- #11 SIESTA SKY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 14.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- #5 EL ABEULO — we make it 15.7%, the morning line works out to 12.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Crazy Luck; pressure from #3 Jims Promise, #9 Jordan Second Deal; and works against #1 Jr Pegasu's, #2 Eyes On El Prado, #3 Jims Promise.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta