INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Strng Tide Handicap

Field

7 runners

Purse

$55,000

Post

4:04 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#2 · 23%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 101.15

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Takeitandrun (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 84 · 87 · 87. Backup is #1 Chicory Blaze at 8-5. Use #6 Kingsbury Road in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

2Takeitandrun

Jockey La Cruz Fernando De 10-for-77 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 12-for-115 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Jordans Deal 3-1, R3: Royal Justice 2-1, R4: Jordan Second Deal 4-1, R7: Watcher 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Jordans Deal 3-1, R4: Jordan Second Deal 4-1, R7: Lil Gin N Class 5-2, R9: Feeling Frosty 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

Runs for $55,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. An 88 top number against a 84 par, so it fits the level.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 11 (4F in :47.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 5 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L5-2

Model23%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 28d

22ND

1Chicory Blaze

Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Robert E Dobbsjr

Also today · Jockey R2: Lexie's Lunar Rock 8-1, R3: Moon Law 7-2

WON LAST8/10 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 12-horse race at IND. Purse drops from $150,000 to $55,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 5 wins, 8 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L8-5

Model28%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last1st · 28d

33RD

6Kingsbury Road

Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career 4-for-47 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr. Sensei 4-1, R3: Asteria 9-2, R5: Engine Sol 3-1, R7: Itzforever 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Gatling Girl 5-2, R4: Gin Clifford 8-1, R7: Pay Me Later 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK8/10 board here

Has won 5 of 14 going today's distance. Has moved up each time out, 62 to 84 to 86.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 74 days ago

RECORD 4 wins, 8 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L3-1

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 28d

44TH

7Inclined

Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 3-for-50 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Gimmeethreesteps 7-2, R3: Junta 20-1, R3: Flash Wear 12-1, R4: Eyes On El Prado 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Quibble 10-1, this race: Justhappytobehere 12-1, R7: Kaboom 12-1

12/16 board here

Picks up 5 pounds from its last start. Last out was 3rd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at IND.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Rail; rallied1/4; falter last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 89d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 12 on the board from 16 starts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 20d

55TH

3Goldwyn

Jockey Irving Moncada 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Randy Klopp 38% career ★ 12-for-56 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Jr Pegasu's 12-1, R7: Screamin Nina 15-1, R8: Donna Strada 15-1 · Trainer R7: Temple Paynter 7-2

8/14 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 91. Figures are climbing: 67, 82, 85 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 29 (3F in :35.20), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 5 wins, 8 on the board from 14 starts here

M/L5-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 15d

4Rich Kingdom

Jockey Hannah Leahey 21% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Donna Riley 25% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Me And Chili 8-1, R4: Cool Trip 12-1, R5: Kenosha Kicker 15-1 · Trainer R7: Rich In Faith 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $55,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Finished 11th in a 12-horse race at IND, beaten 15 lengths.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 188 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last11th · 28d

5Justhappytobehere

Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 4-for-41 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Quibble 10-1 · Trainer R2: Quibble 10-1, this race: Inclined 10-1, R7: Kaboom 12-1

8/11 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. Turns back in 7 days.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 11 starts here

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 7d

At a glance

Market favourite #1 CHICORY BLAZE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#1 CHICORY BLAZE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 29.5%).
#2 TAKEITANDRUN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.9%).
#6 KINGSBURY ROAD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Takeitandrun; pressure from #3 Goldwyn, #1 Chicory Blaze; the shape helps #1 Chicory Blaze, #7 Inclined; and works against #2 Takeitandrun, #3 Goldwyn.

Lead

2Takeitandrun963Goldwyn73

Press

1Chicory Blaze66

Stalk

7Inclined72

5Justhappytobehere686Kingsbury Road604Rich Kingdom59

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Takeitandrun

Goldwyn

Inclined

Chicory Blaze

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Justhappytobehere

Rich Kingdom

Kingsbury Road

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