INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $38,000 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$38,000

Post

2:02 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#5 · 25%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.59

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Deep Blue (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 77 · 75 · 80. Backup is #4 Gatling Girl at 5-2. Use #1 Dreamy Druso in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Deep Blue

Jockey Angel Serpa 23% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Lauren Robson 25% career

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Lauren Robson takes over the training from Victor L Garcia. Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 71 for the next best.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stmbl/lost pth st; 4-6w. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (3F in :37.80), 3 works in 30d

M/L6-1

Model25%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 115d

22ND

4Gatling Girl

Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Robert M Gorham 32% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Gin Clifford 8-1, R7: Pay Me Later 15-1 · Trainer R4: Gin Clifford 8-1, R6: Kingsbury Road 3-1, R7: Pay Me Later 15-1

Has moved up each time out, 48 to 58 to 66. Best recent figure of 71 sits right around the 77 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 74d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 5 on the board from 12 starts here

M/L5-2

Model23%

Fav?Yes

StyleP

Last5th · 55d

33RD

1Dreamy Druso

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career ★ 16-for-79 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Michelle L Elliott 31% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Chiringo 5-1, R4: Jims Promise 4-1, R5: Indy Flyer 5-2, R7: Rich In Faith 10-1

WON LAST5/5 board here

Winner of a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND last time. Figures are climbing: 58, 59, 71 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (1 win)

M/L4-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 47d

44TH

3Raizonette

Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Anthony E Guida 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Saint In The City 8-1, R5: Officer Gambill 10-1 · Trainer R5: Indy Flyer 5-2

60D LAYOFF

Back after 110 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Mitchell Murrill takes over from Evin A Roman in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 18d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 110d

55TH

6Jordans Deal

Jockey La Cruz Fernando De 10-for-77 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tim Eggleston 34% career 12-for-115 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Royal Justice 2-1, R4: Jordan Second Deal 4-1, R6: Takeitandrun 5-2, R7: Watcher 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Jordan Second Deal 4-1, R6: Takeitandrun 5-2, R7: Lil Gin N Class 5-2, R9: Feeling Frosty 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST10/15 board here

Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse $7,500 claiming race at IND. Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and allowance now.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 146 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 15 starts here

M/L3-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 29d

2Lexie's Lunar Rock

Jockey R Prescott 26% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Brian L Schling 14% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Moon Law 7-2, R6: Chicory Blaze 8-5

Purse drops from $125,000 to $38,000 against its last start. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bid3p3/16; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last7th · 28d

7Quibble

Jockey Alexander Crispin 26% career 4-for-41 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael Lauer 25% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Justhappytobehere 12-1 · Trainer R6: Justhappytobehere 12-1, R6: Inclined 10-1, R7: Kaboom 12-1

3/5 board here

Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 16d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GATLING GIRL (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 GATLING GIRL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.2% to their 23.4%).
#6 JORDANS DEAL — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 20.4%).
#1 DREAMY DRUSO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 16.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 DEEP BLUE — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 11.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Raizonette; pressure from #1 Dreamy Druso, #6 Jordans Deal; the shape helps #1 Dreamy Druso, #4 Gatling Girl, #5 Deep Blue; and works against #3 Raizonette.

Lead

3Raizonette88

Press

1Dreamy Druso926Jordans Deal91

Stalk

4Gatling Girl835Deep Blue78

7Quibble712Lexie's Lunar Rock57

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Dreamy Druso

Jordans Deal

Raizonette

Gatling Girl

Deep Blue

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Quibble

Lexie's Lunar Rock

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