| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/4 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k n3l | 2nd/7 | 71 | 0.7-1 | L | Press 3;adv4w;led late |
| 9/20 | LRC | 5f D | Clm 6k n3l | 3rd/8 -1L | 84 | 4.0-1 | L | Vie btw;duel;yield1/16 |
| 8/1 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k n3l | 2nd/6 -2½L | 73 | 1.7-1 | L | Off trio ins;willng 2d |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | EMD | 6f D | Clm 8k n3l | 5th/6 -3½L | 76 | 1.0-1 | b L | Prompted; wealemed |
| 8/2 | EMD | 6f D | Clm 25k n3l | 4th/5 -4½L | 75 | 6.7-1 | b L | Vied early rail;weaknd |
| 7/5 | EMD | 6f D | Clm 15k b | Won/5 | 74 | 2.3-1 | b L | Set pace; held edge |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/4 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k n3l | 5th/7 by hd | 54 | 4.8-1 | L | Led inside; tired |
| 9/18 | LRC | 5f D | Clm 8k n2x | 6th/6 -6L | 50 | 4.8-1 | L | Led inside;duel;faded |
| 8/22 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k n2lc | Won/5 | 71 | 0.5-1 | L | Sent clear;held safely |
1Bet the Om★E. Payeras · T. DialPayeras · DialA71 84 73▼-6@trip 915-2Fair 2-133%
▼ Down -671 84 73@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 911Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 84 73
★ Best at the trip 91Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Troy Dial 27% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R4: Tight Dally 4-5, R5: Stardialed 6-1★ FASTEST WORK11/11 board hereFigure of 84 on the record sits above the 75 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d agoRECORD On the board in all 11 starts here (2 wins)RECORD Edgar Payeras from post 1 here: 47 wins, 93 top-3 in 139 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 2nd/7 71 0.7-1 L Press 3;adv4w;led late 9/20 LRC 5f D Clm 6k n3l 3rd/8 -1L 84 4.0-1 L Vie btw;duel;yield1/16 8/1 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 2nd/6 -2½L 73 1.7-1 L Off trio ins;willng 2d 2Sark▲▼S. Vargas · G. HaleyVargas · HaleyB86 90 63▲+6↕@trip 9020-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +686 90 63 ↕@trip 90B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 75▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 90 63
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 75▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gloria Haley 19% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Omemgee 3-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R5: Jewelofakid 10-1 · Trainer R2: Andramada 4-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-17/11 board hereClass relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 90, with 84 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 156 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 7 on the board from 11 starts hereRECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 2 here: 4 wins, 19 top-3 in 44 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 9th/10 -6¾L 86 38-1 b L Savd grnd;no rally 4p 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 3rd/6 -5½L 90 21-1 b L Stalked 2w;best rest 9/13 LRC 6f D Clm 12k n2x 6th/7 -5½L 63 15-1 b L Mild bid3deep turn;wkn 3Swift Stephan▲F. Monroy · S. PaldaniusMonroy · PaldaniusA76 75 74▲+72-1Fair 3-126%
▲ Up +7 · career best76 75 74A▲ Last fig 76 at/above par 752Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 75 74
▲ Last fig 76 at/above par 75Jockey Francisco Monroy 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Sheldon Paldanius 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/22 from post 3Sheldon Paldanius takes over the training from Blaine Wright. Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6 furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (4F in :48.40), 2 works in 30dRECORD Francisco Monroy has never won from post 3 here (10 top-3 in 22 rides) · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 EMD 6f D Clm 8k n3l 5th/6 -3½L 76 1.0-1 b L Prompted; wealemed 8/2 EMD 6f D Clm 25k n3l 4th/5 -4½L 75 6.7-1 b L Vied early rail;weaknd 7/5 EMD 6f D Clm 15k b Won/5 74 2.3-1 b L Set pace; held edge 4Pine RunA. Castellanos · J. RosalesCastellanos · RosalesA54 50 71▼▼-11↕@trip 846-1Fair 8-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1154 50 71 ↕@trip 84A3Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–73 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 50 71
Jockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jorge Rosales 35% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hotCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board hereHas won 2 of 4 going today's distance. New trainer: Jesus Mendoza had it last time, Jorge Rosales now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (4F in :45.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 5th/7 by hd 54 4.8-1 L Led inside; tired 9/18 LRC 5f D Clm 8k n2x 6th/6 -6L 50 4.8-1 L Led inside;duel;faded 8/22 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n2lc Won/5 71 0.5-1 L Sent clear;held safely 5Draw NighF. Orduna-Rojas · T. EatonOrduna-Rojas · EatonB64 59 58▲+3@trip 7510-1Fair 20-14%
▲ Up +364 59 58@trip 75BCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 59 58
Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Terri Eaton 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Andramada 4-1, R3: Sir Nano 8-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1, R5: Big Coin 15-1 · Trainer R5: Coiffeur 12-1, R5: Cut N Curl 30-1WON LASTWon last out in a 5-horse $4,000 claiming race at GRP. Figures are climbing: 58, 59, 64 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 2d backRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 5 here: 11 wins, 41 top-3 in 69 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 GRP 6½f D Clm 4k n2x Won/5 64 7.4-1 b L Pace;dug in;held on 9/14 GRP 5f D Clm 4k n2x 5th/8 -8L 59 20-1 b L Chased 3w; weakened 9/5 EMD 6½f D Clm 5k n2l 5th/7 -6L 58 7.6-1 b L 2-w; no threat 6Careful Colin▼C. Herrera · M. MeierHerrera · MeierB59 67 66▼-5≡@trip 676-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -559 67 66 ≡@trip 67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 59–67 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 67 66
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Monty R Meier 24% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board herePosted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 25, in :48.00. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 75 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 2 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Cristobal Herrera from post 6 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 24 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 4th/7 by nk 59 8.3-1 b L Saved ground;kept on 9/12 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 2nd/5 67 6.2-1 b L Ins;shook clear;nailed 8/8 LA 4½f D Clm 3k n2l Won/6 66 2.5-1 b L Bpd st;cleared;held 7Kiddo LightR. Sevilla · J. ValdezSevilla · ValdezC55 17 52▲+5↕@trip 826-1Fair 8-110%
▲ Up +555 17 52 ↕@trip 82CCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 17–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 17 52
2/3 board hereWas running in $12,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 15d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/23 SA 6f D Clm 12k n2l 7th/8 -13L 55 48-1 b L Brf speed;ins-2w;tired 10/4 SA 1m D Clm 10k 7th/7 -17L 17 44-1 b L Bk out/bp;4-3w;2w;easd 9/25 SA 5½f D Clm 12k n2l 7th/7 -12L 52 44-1 L Stp slw;widest;no bid 8WarmheartedD. Cruz · S. RiveraCruz · RiveraC44 40 70▼▼-13↕@trip 7210-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -1344 40 70 ↕@trip 72CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–70 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 40 70
Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Sally P Rivera 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Fairlawns Way 7-2, R4: The Dude Abides 30-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1 · Trainer R3: Smarty Nose 15-1★ FASTEST WORK2nd of 19 at 4F on Mar 21, in :48.00. 7th last time, 1¼ lengths back, in a field of 7.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 69d back)RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 7th/7 -1¼L 44 34-1 b L Vied 2w; tired 1/8 9/20 LRC 5f D Clm 6k n3l 8th/8 -10L 40 48-1 b L Vied inside; retreated 8/30 LA 4½f D Clm 3k n2l Won/5 70 1.5-1 b L Easy lead;kickd away
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 49.2
The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #1 Bet The Om (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 71 · 84 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Swift Stephan at 2-1. Use #4 Pine Run in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SWIFT STEPHAN (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 SWIFT STEPHAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 26.1%).
- #1 BET THE OM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 22.4%).
- #4 PINE RUN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.6% to their 11.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Swift Stephan; pressure from #4 Pine Run, #8 Warmhearted; and works against #2 Sark, #3 Swift Stephan, #4 Pine Run.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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$1 SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM WAGER)
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