Pick sheet

Race 510:51 PM Alw 16000n3lLate Pick 4 starts

4.5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Still Unwritten, is 54% to win (morning line implies 39%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Still Unwritten ML 1-1 Fair 4-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -4 ≡ Steady 79–84

Jockey A. Escobedo · Trainer R. Hanson · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 69 · 90 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	DMR	5f T	Alw nc	7th/7 -½L	79	8.7-1	b L	Clear;pressured;wknd
5/9	SA	-6½f T	Senorita G3	7th/10 -½L	83	20-1	b	Pace inside;weakened
4/4	SA	-6½f T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/8	84	5.7-1	b L	Ins;yielded grudgingly

Case: Last out 7th/7 -½L in the fAlw85000nc at DMR. Last Brisnet figures 79-83-84. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-2 at the distance. R. Hanson / A. Escobedo.

Knock: Off 90 days. Never raced at Los Alamitos.

Contender #2 Twisted Humor ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best ★ Best at 4.54545f dirt: 91 ↕ Up and down 68–91

Jockey J. Klaiber · Trainer J. Uranga · KEE 3: 1-1-1 · Dist 3: 1-1-1 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 91 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	Won/8	91	1.5-1	b L	Steered out 1/8;lasted
9/20	LRC	5½f D	Clm 20k n3l	5th/6 -2½L	68	5.0-1	b L	Brk in;surrendered1/4
8/30	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/7	88	1.4-1	b L	Rushd 3w;cleard;best

Case: Last out won in the fAlw15500n3l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 91-68-88. Best at today's distance 91. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Los Alamitos. J. Uranga / J. Klaiber.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #9 Stardialed ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -4 ↕ Up and down 59–82 Blinkers on Last out 8th/9 -3L in the fOC50000 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 70-82-81. Best at today's distance 62. 0-for-1 at the distance. F. Rodriguez / E. Payeras. Knock: Off 195 days. Never raced at Los Alamitos.

Jockey E. Payeras · Trainer F. Rodriguez · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 4.54545f dirt 62 · 195 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/19	SA	6f T	OC 50k	8th/9 -3L	70	12-1	L	3-2wd;angled uppr;wknd
3/27	SA	6½f D	OC 50k	2nd/7	82	2.5-1	L	Reluctant; grudgingly
2/12	MVR	6f D	MSW	Won/7	81	0.8-1	L	Kick clear turn;widen

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #5 · B #1, #7, #9 · C #4, #6, #8

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R5 Los Alamitos · Allowance · $16,000 purse

10:51 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $16,000 · 9 runners10:51 PM · 4½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $16K · Allowance · $16,000 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Toulouse Detrac▼A. Bautista · J. FariasBautista · FariasB90 62 85▲▲+26↕@trip 9012-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best90 62 85 ↕@trip 90B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 62 85

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: We Salute You 5-1, R3: Lord Dunmore 10-1 · Trainer R3: Drop The Bit 4-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse allowance race at LA, beaten 2¾ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 1 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	3rd/8 -2¾L	90	20-1	b L	Bp;rallied 5p;miss 2nd
9/19	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n3l	3rd/6 -1L	62	2.2-1	b L	Duel2w;4w into str;wkn
8/2	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 12k n3l	5th/5 -2¾L	85	5.5-1	b L	Trailed;4w;lacked run

2Twisted Humor★J. Klaiber · J. UrangaKlaiber · UrangaA91 68 88▲▲+15↕@trip 917-2Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best91 68 88 ↕@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 912

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 68 88

★ Best at the trip 91

Jockey Justine Klaiber 37% career 7-for-44 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Karma's Revenge 9-2, R7: Cowboy Legacy 123 3-1, R8: Demarus 9-5 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1 +1 more

WON LAST3/3 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 90 for the next best. Winner of an 8-horse allowance race at LA last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 85d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Justine Klaiber from post 2 here: 7 wins, 25 top-3 in 54 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	Won/8	91	1.5-1	b L	Steered out 1/8;lasted
9/20	LRC	5½f D	Clm 20k n3l	5th/6 -2½L	68	5.0-1	b L	Brk in;surrendered1/4
8/30	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/7	88	1.4-1	b L	Rushd 3w;cleard;best

3Still UnwrittenA. Escobedo · R. HansonEscobedo · HansonA79 83 84▼-4≡@trip 691-1Fair 4-555%▼ Down -479 83 84 ≡@trip 69A1

Card model 55% · Fair odds 4-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 79–84 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 83 84

Jockey Adrian Escobedo 36% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Rostron 5-1 · Trainer R4: Rostron 5-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 90 days. Watch how its recent works look. Class relief: allowance last time, allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d back

RECORD Adrian Escobedo from post 3 here: 25 wins, 58 top-3 in 97 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/2	DMR	5f T	Alw nc	7th/7 -½L	79	8.7-1	b L	Clear;pressured;wknd
5/9	SA	-6½f T	Senorita G3	7th/10 -½L	83	20-1	b	Pace inside;weakened
4/4	SA	-6½f T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/8	84	5.7-1	b L	Ins;yielded grudgingly

4Coiffeur▼M. Americano · T. EatonAmericano · EatonC74 70 64▲+5@trip 8712-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +574 70 64@trip 87C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 70 64
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Terri Eaton 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Smarty Nose 15-1, R4: Naudesnoodle 20-1 · Trainer R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, this race: Cut N Curl 30-1
Moves up from allowance to allowance. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 70 to 74.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/21 GRP 6f D Alw b 3rd/7 -4½L 74 4.5-1 L Chased 2w;steady bid
9/6 EMD 6f D Clm 15k 5th/7 -12L 70 57-1 L 5-w; no threat
8/23 EMD 6f D Clm 15k 4th/5 -7½L 64 22-1 L Steadied 1/8; willngly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	GRP	6f D	Alw b	3rd/7 -4½L	74	4.5-1	L	Chased 2w;steady bid
9/6	EMD	6f D	Clm 15k	5th/7 -12L	70	57-1	L	5-w; no threat
8/23	EMD	6f D	Clm 15k	4th/5 -7½L	64	22-1	L	Steadied 1/8; willngly

5Blame It on AbbyA. Aguilar · J. UrangaAguilar · UrangaA84 70 69▲▲+15@trip 8410-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best84 70 69@trip 84A

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 70 69

Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Drop The Bit 4-1 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1 +1 more

Changes barns, from Peter Miller to Jesus J Uranga. Figures are climbing: 69, 70, 84 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD Armando Aguilar from post 5 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 21 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	4th/8 -4L	84	8.4-1	L	Chased ins; best rest
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	Won/6 by ½	70	1.7-1	L	3p;bid inside;clear
8/23	DMR	5½f D	Clm 12k	4th/7 -6½L	69	8.5-1	L	3-2wd;angled in upper

6JewelofakidS. Vargas · F. GonzalezVargas · GonzalezC55 45 72▼-610-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -655 45 72C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 55 45 72

Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Felix L Gonzalez 31% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Sark 20-1, R2: Omemgee 3-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1

180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 602 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 6 here: 10 wins, 30 top-3 in 57 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/8	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	4th/7 -6¼L	—	8.9-1	L	Settled 3p;willingly4p
2/15	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2l	Won/6 by 1½	—	5.4-1	L	Bp;stdy early;2w;4w;up
1/18	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2l	4th/5 -1½L	—	13-1	L	Vied 2wide; tired 1/16

7Big CoinF. Orduna-Rojas · G. VallejoOrduna-Rojas · VallejoB86 74 66▲▲+12@trip 8615-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best86 74 66@trip 86B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 74 66

Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, R2: Andramada 4-1, R3: Sir Nano 8-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1 · Trainer R4: Autism Bona Fide 20-1

WON LAST6/8 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $6,250 claiming race at LA at 2-1. Figures are climbing: 66, 74, 86 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 2; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 48 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	Won/7	86	2.0-1	b L	Duel 2w;dug in;best
9/20	LRC	5f D	Clm 8k n2l	2nd/6 -2L	74	6.2-1	b L	Ins;bpd/led late;naild
9/13	LRC	5½f D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/8 -8L	66	36-1	b L	2-4w;angled in;weaknd

8Cut N CurlC. Herrera · T. EatonHerrera · EatonC71 71 69►≡@trip 7730-1Fair 99-1<1%► Steady71 71 69 ≡@trip 77C
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–71 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 71 69
Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Terri Eaton 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Careful Colin 6-1 · Trainer R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, this race: Coiffeur 12-1
2/4 board here
Shortens up to 4½ furlongs after going 6½ furlongs. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/21 GRP 6½f D Alw n3x 4th/6 -3L 71 14-1 L Asked 2w; missed 3rd
9/6 EMD 6f D Clm 15k 4th/7 -9½L 71 52-1 L 3-w; late rally
7/24 EMD 6½f D Clm 15k n3l 3rd/8 -1¾L 69 14-1 L 6-w; mild rally
9StardialedE. Payeras · F. RodriguezPayeras · RodriguezB70 82 81▼-4↕@trip 626-1Fair 8-112%▼ Down -470 82 81 ↕@trip 62B3
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–82 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 82 81
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Francisco Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Bet The Om 5-2, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R4: Tight Dally 4-5 · Trainer R7: Ss Drag Along 5-1, R8: L A Ravin 2-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Francisco Rodriguez takes over the training from Doug O'Neill.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.00 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/19 SA 6f T OC 50k 8th/9 -3L 70 12-1 L 3-2wd;angled uppr;wknd
3/27 SA 6½f D OC 50k 2nd/7 82 2.5-1 L Reluctant; grudgingly
2/12 MVR 6f D MSW Won/7 81 0.8-1 L Kick clear turn;widen

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	GRP	6½f D	Alw n3x	4th/6 -3L	71	14-1	L	Asked 2w; missed 3rd
9/6	EMD	6f D	Clm 15k	4th/7 -9½L	71	52-1	L	3-w; late rally
7/24	EMD	6½f D	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/8 -1¾L	69	14-1	L	6-w; mild rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Allowance · $16,000 purse

Field

9 runners

Purse

$16,000

Post

10:51 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 55%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 51.29

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Still Unwritten (a tactical type, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 79 · 83 · 84. Backup is #2 Twisted Humor at 7-2. Use #9 Stardialed in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 STILL UNWRITTEN (1-1) — our number agrees.
#3 STILL UNWRITTEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (42.5% to their 38.6%).
#2 TWISTED HUMOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.2%).
#9 STARDIALED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.6% to their 11.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Toulouse Detrac, #2 Twisted Humor, #3 Still Unwritten.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

3Still Unwritten984Coiffeur909Stardialed898Cut N Curl801Toulouse Detrac2Twisted Humor5Blame It On Abby6Jewelofakid7Big Coin

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Still Unwritten

Coiffeur

Stardialed

Cut N Curl

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Coiffeur

Cut N Curl

Still Unwritten

Stardialed

Toulouse Detrac

Twisted Humor

Blame It On Abby

Jewelofakid

Big Coin

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