| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12 | SA | 6½f T | MCL 50k | 7th/7 -6½L | 55 | 28-1 | b L | Pressed outside;tired |
| 9/19 | LRC | 6f D | sMd12500 | 4th/11 -3L | 69 | 6.2-1 | b L | Press;chsd ins-3wd;wkn |
| 7/24 | DMR | 6f D | sMd12500 | 11th/11 -9L | 52 | 5.1-1 | b L | Vie4deep;chsd4w;tired |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18 | LRC | 6f D | MCL 30k | 6th/8 -10L | 59 | 77-1 | b L | 4-2wide; no menace |
| 8/15 | LA | 4.54545f D | MCL 12k | 3rd/6 -5½L | 75 | 4.8-1 | b L | Settled 3p;up 3rd 3p |
| 7/5 | LRC | 5f D | sMd12500 | 4th/9 -5½L | 65 | 24-1 | b L | 4-3wide; no response |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20 | LA | 4½f D | MCL 5k | 3rd/4 -5½L | 57 | 1.3-1 | b L | Rail trip; improved |
| 8/29 | DMR | 5½f D | MCL 20k | 8th/9 -12L | 57 | 38-1 | b L | 2wide-inside;no menace |
| 10/13 | SA | 5½f D | sMd50000 | 7th/11 -¾L | 65 | 7.5-1 | b | Sent;vie between;wknd |
1RostronA. Escobedo · R. HansonEscobedo · HansonB57 57 65▼▼-8@trip 575-1Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -857 57 65@trip 57B3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 57 65
Jockey Adrian Escobedo 36% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hotCLASS DROPPrime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 3rd in a 4-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at LA, beaten 5½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 69d back)RECORD Adrian Escobedo from post 1 here: 18 wins, 38 top-3 in 79 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 LA 4½f D MCL 5k 3rd/4 -5½L 57 1.3-1 b L Rail trip; improved 8/29 DMR 5½f D MCL 20k 8th/9 -12L 57 38-1 b L 2wide-inside;no menace 10/13 SA 5½f D sMd50000 7th/11 -¾L 65 7.5-1 b Sent;vie between;wknd 2Naudesnoodle▼M. Americano · M. Valenzuela Jr.Americano · Valenzuela Jr.B53 58 66▼-520-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -553 58 66B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 53 58 66
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Martin Jr Valenzuela 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetClass relief: maiden claiming $12,500 last time, maiden claiming $5,000 today. New trainer: Dan Azcarate had it last time, Martin Jr Valenzuela now.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 6f D sMd12500 8th/8 -10L 53 52-1 L Chased inside; empty 8/20 DMR 6f D sMd12500 10th/12 -11L 58 80-1 L 5wd into str;no menace 6/7 SA 6f D sMd12500 7th/13 -8L 66 102-1 L 6wd into str;no threat 3Wicklow WayF. Orduna-Rojas · G. HaleyOrduna-Rojas · HaleyA60 53 74▼-6↕@trip 748-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -660 53 74 ↕@trip 74ACard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 53 74
Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Gloria Haley 19% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, R2: Andramada 4-1, R3: Sir Nano 8-1, R5: Big Coin 15-1 · Trainer R1: Sark 20-1, R2: Andramada 4-1CLASS DROPFigure of 74 on the record sits above the 69 par. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 106d back)RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 3 here: 5 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 LA 4½f D MCL 3k 2nd/7 -3½L 60 7.8-1 b L Off duo 2w;up 2nd late 9/13 LRC 5f D MCL 12k 6th/7 -10L 53 55-1 b L Bmpd/squeezed st;5-6wd 8/15 LA 4.54545f D MCL 12k 4th/6 -5½L 74 26-1 b L Off slow; ins; mildly 4Bretts Acclaim★P. Flores · R. LucasFlores · LucasA59 75 65▼▼-15↕@trip 823-1Fair 6-115%
▼▼ Big drop -1559 75 65 ↕@trip 82A★ Best at the trip 822Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 75 65
★ Best at the trip 82Jockey P Flores 32% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)CLASS UP4/4 board hereCuts back from 6 furlongs to 4½ furlongs. Drops from maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $5,000.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days agoRECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)RECORD P Flores from post 4 here: 4 wins, 11 top-3 in 30 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 LRC 6f D MCL 30k 6th/8 -10L 59 77-1 b L 4-2wide; no menace 8/15 LA 4.54545f D MCL 12k 3rd/6 -5½L 75 4.8-1 b L Settled 3p;up 3rd 3p 7/5 LRC 5f D sMd12500 4th/9 -5½L 65 24-1 b L 4-3wide; no response 5Autism Bona Fide▼A. Castellanos · G. VallejoCastellanos · VallejoC42@trip 4220-1Fair 50-12%
—42@trip 42C▼ Best fig 42 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 42 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 42
▼ Best fig 42 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Genaro Vallejo 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Pine Run 6-1, R2: Inorbit 8-1, R3: Elegant Life 30-1 · Trainer R5: Big Coin 15-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSBeaten 10 lengths for 4th in a 4-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at LA. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 42 against a 69 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 LA 4½f D MCL 5k 4th/4 -10L 42 4.5-1 b L Showed little 6Tight DallyE. Payeras · P. EurtonPayeras · EurtonA55 69 52▼▼-9↕4-5Fair 6-546%
▼▼ Big drop -955 69 52 ↕A1Card model 46% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–72 · Last 3 figs 55 69 52
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Peter Eurton 35% career ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Bet The Om 5-2, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R5: Stardialed 6-1CLASS UPComes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Edgar Payeras from post 6 here: 27 wins, 75 top-3 in 130 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 6½f T MCL 50k 7th/7 -6½L 55 28-1 b L Pressed outside;tired 9/19 LRC 6f D sMd12500 4th/11 -3L 69 6.2-1 b L Press;chsd ins-3wd;wkn 7/24 DMR 6f D sMd12500 11th/11 -9L 52 5.1-1 b L Vie4deep;chsd4w;tired 7The Dude Abides▼D. Cruz · A. AquinoCruz · AquinoC46 25@trip 4630-1Fair 99-1<1%
—46 25@trip 46C▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 46 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 25
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career ★ 8-for-28 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Warmhearted 10-1, R2: Fairlawns Way 7-2, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1 · Trainer R3: Voucher 6-1, R8: Emperador D 15-1CLASS DROPA step up in company: maiden claiming $3,500 before, maiden claiming $5,000 today. Best recent figure is 46, well under the 69 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d backRECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 7 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 26 rides · 7% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 LA 4½f D MCL 3k 5th/7 -6½L 46 30-1 b Off slw;ins;no threat 10/4 LA 4.54545f D MCL 12k 6th/6 -20L 25 14-1 Off vry slow;distanced 8Karma's Revenge▼J. Klaiber · O. HediaKlaiber · HediaB59 59 54►≡@trip 639-2Fair 6-113%
► Steady59 59 54 ≡@trip 63B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 54–62 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 59 54
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 69CLASS DROP4/6 board here0 for 6 at today's distance. Maiden through 6 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Justine Klaiber from post 8 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 17 rides · 24% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 LA 4½f D MCL 3k 3rd/7 -½L 59 3.4-1 b L Duel ins;lost 2nd late 9/20 LA 4½f D MCL 5k 2nd/4 -½L 59 5.8-1 b L Clear;no match;held 2d 9/5 LA 4½f D MCL 3k 3rd/7 -4½L 54 23-1 b L Shift in st;ins;outfns
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $5,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 49.2
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Tight Dally (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 55 · 69 · 52. Backup is #4 Bretts Acclaim at 3-1. Use #1 Rostron in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 TIGHT DALLY (4-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 TIGHT DALLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (40.4% to their 39.9%).
- #4 BRETTS ACCLAIM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 18.0%).
- #1 ROSTRON — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 12.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Karma's Revenge; pressure from #1 Rostron, #4 Bretts Acclaim; and works against #1 Rostron, #2 Naudesnoodle, #4 Bretts Acclaim.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 EXACTA / $1 TRIFECTA
$1 SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM WAGER)
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