Pick sheet

Race 29:33 PM Clm 3500n2l

4.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Omemgee, is 26% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #5 Omemgee ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 58–62

Jockey S. Vargas · Trainer J. Uranga · KEE 5: 1-2-0 · Dist 5: 1-2-0 · best fig at 4½f dirt 71 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	2nd/6	62	6.3-1	L	Ins;led uppr;game try
9/26	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	5th/5 -4½L	58	5.2-1	L	Brk in;off duo ins;wkn
8/15	LA	4½f D	MCL 5k	Won/6	61	2.4-1	L	Ins;drftd 1/8;kick clr

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm3500n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 62-58-61. Best at today's distance 71. 1-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Los Alamitos. J. Uranga / S. Vargas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Crypto Crush ML 6-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey E. Payeras · Trainer J. Uranga · KEE 6: 0-0-0 · Dist 6: 0-0-0 · best fig at 4½f dirt 78 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/8 -6L	69	6.4-1	b L	Swung 8wd; willingly
8/6	DMR	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/9 -7½L	70	37-1	b L	Ins;3-5wide;no threat
7/19	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/6 -8L	78	12-1	b L	Trailed; improved ins

Case: Last out 3rd in the fClm6250n2l at LRC. Last Brisnet figures 69-70-78. Best at today's distance 78. 0-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Los Alamitos. J. Uranga / E. Payeras.

Knock: 0-for-6 at the distance.

Use #6 Fairlawns Way ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 Last out 3rd in the fClm3500n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 61-60-69. Best at today's distance 73. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Los Alamitos. C. Treece / D. Cruz. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Cruz · Trainer C. Treece · KEE 7: 1-1-2 · Dist 7: 1-1-2 · best fig at 4½f dirt 73 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	3rd/6 by nk	61	3.9-1	b L	Press 3w;bid;outkickd
9/26	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	3rd/5 -3L	60	14-1	b L	Off duo 2w; best rest
8/22	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/5 -2¾L	69	2.4-1	b L	Chased 3wide; empty

★ Distance horse: #2 Jager Angel (15-1) has the best figure in the field at 4½f dirt: 81 from 9 tries, record at the distance 27: 1-9-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #7, #8 · B #4, #5, #6 · C #2, #3

Angles: #1 Last fig 72 at/above par 71 · #1 Lone speed on early pace · #3 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 67) · #4 Last fig 72 at/above par 71

R2 Los Alamitos · Claiming $3,500

9:33 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $9,500 · 8 runners9:33 PM · 4½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $9,500 · Claiming $3,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Jager Angel (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 9 tries. Not in our top three.

1Andramada▲▲F. Orduna-Rojas · G. HaleyOrduna-Rojas · HaleyA72 72 76►@trip 764-1Fair 8-111%► Steady72 72 76@trip 76A▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 72 76

▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Gloria Haley 19% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, R3: Sir Nano 8-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1, R5: Big Coin 15-1 · Trainer R1: Sark 20-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: $6,250 claiming last time, $3,500 claiming today. Has run 76 against a 71 par for the class.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.60 on May 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 1 here: 5 wins, 27 top-3 in 56 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	6th/7 -4L	72	11-1	b L	Pressed 3w;weaken
9/26	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	2nd/5 -1L	72	6.0-1	b L	Dueled 2w; missed
8/22	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	4th/5 -½L	76	2.6-1	b L	Led inside; tired 1/16

2Jager Angel★P. Flores · R. LucasFlores · LucasC59 50 76▼▼-9↕@trip 8115-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -959 50 76 ↕@trip 81C★ Best at the trip 81

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–77 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 50 76

★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey P Flores 32% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Robert J Lucas 26% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Bretts Acclaim 3-1 · Trainer R4: Bretts Acclaim 3-1

CLASS DROP

Owns the highest recent figure here at 81. 5th last time, 3¾ lengths back, in a field of 6.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 86d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD P Flores from post 2 here: 3 wins, 20 top-3 in 38 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	5th/6 -3¾L	59	7.7-1	b L	Chased 2w;lack rally
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	7th/8 -8L	50	48-1	b L	Reluctant;inside;tired
8/30	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/7 -5¼L	76	19-1	b L	Off trio ins;weaken

3Goddessofthemoon▼C. Ortega · J. RaudalesOrtega · RaudalesC29 67 65▼▼-39↕@trip 758-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -3929 67 65 ↕@trip 75C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 67)

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -39 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–72 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 29 67 65

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (29 vs 67)

Jockey Cesar Ortega 26% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jose Raudales 24% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Finished 8th in an 8-horse $6,250 claiming race at LRC, beaten 13 lengths. Back to 4½ furlongs off a 5½ furlongs race.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 25 (3F in :35.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Cesar Ortega from post 3 here: 16 wins, 46 top-3 in 90 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	8th/8 -13L	29	78-1	b L	Bmpd st;4-6p;no rally
7/12	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n3l	7th/7 -12L	67	46-1	b L	Inside; no response 2p
3/1	LA	4.54545f D	Alw n2l	4th/4 -4¾L	65	6.3-1	b L	Vie 2w;drft turn;weakn

4Inorbit▲A. Castellanos · J. MaravillaCastellanos · MaravillaB72 58 53▲▲+15@trip 728-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best72 58 53@trip 72B▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 58 53

▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 71

Jockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jorge Maravilla 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Pine Run 6-1, R3: Elegant Life 30-1, R4: Autism Bona Fide 20-1

Changes barns, from Jesus Ramos to Jorge Maravilla. Has moved up each time out, 53 to 58 to 72.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 163d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	7th/7 -5¼L	72	20-1	b L	Press 4w;weakn turn
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/8 -8L	58	29-1	b	Ins-3w;pass tired rvls
9/7	EMD	6½f D	Clm 8k n2l	6th/7 -5¼L	53	15-1	b L	Prompted; weakened

5OmemgeeS. Vargas · J. UrangaVargas · UrangaB62 58 61▲+3≡@trip 713-1Fair 3-126%▲ Up +362 58 61 ≡@trip 71B1

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 58–62 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 58 61

Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Sark 20-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R5: Jewelofakid 10-1 · Trainer this race: Crypto Crush 6-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more

3/5 board here

Sat 2nd of 6 early last time. Last start: 2nd in a 6-horse $3,500 claiming race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 119d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 5 here: 10 wins, 26 top-3 in 51 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	2nd/6	62	6.3-1	L	Ins;led uppr;game try
9/26	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	5th/5 -4½L	58	5.2-1	L	Brk in;off duo ins;wkn
8/15	LA	4½f D	MCL 5k	Won/6	61	2.4-1	L	Ins;drftd 1/8;kick clr

6Fairlawns WayD. Cruz · C. TreeceCruz · TreeceB61 60 69▼-6@trip 737-2Fair 6-115%▼ Down -661 60 69@trip 73B3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 60 69

Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Charles S Treece 24% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Warmhearted 10-1, R4: The Dude Abides 30-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1

Jky 4/35 from post 6

2nd of 8 at 3F on Sep 13, in :36.80. Beaten a neck for 3rd in a 6-horse $3,500 claiming race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 35 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	3rd/6 by nk	61	3.9-1	b L	Press 3w;bid;outkickd
9/26	LA	4½f D	Clm 3k n2l	3rd/5 -3L	60	14-1	b L	Off duo 2w; best rest
8/22	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/5 -2¾L	69	2.4-1	b L	Chased 3wide; empty

7We Salute YouA. Bautista · A. RuvalcabaBautista · RuvalcabaA65 73 75▼▼-10@trip 785-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1065 73 75@trip 78A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 73 75

Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Alberto Ruvalcaba 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Lord Dunmore 10-1, R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

Drops from maiden claiming $12,500 to $3,500 claiming. Figures have slipped: 75, 73, 65 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Outsd; 5w into str; wknd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 2f in :24.00 on Oct 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LRC	5½f D	MCL 12k	5th/7 -3½L	65	3.4-1	b L	Outsd;5w into str;wknd
9/11	LRC	6f D	MCL 12k	3rd/9 -3L	73	12-1	b L	Drftd into str;lug str
8/30	LA	4.54545f D	MCL 12k	2nd/6 -2¾L	75	1.4-1	b L	Bpd st;2w;3w;up 2nd

8Crypto CrushE. Payeras · J. UrangaPayeras · UrangaA69 70 78►@trip 786-1Fair 5-117%► Steady69 70 78@trip 78A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 70 78

Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Bet The Om 5-2, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R4: Tight Dally 4-5, R5: Stardialed 6-1 · Trainer this race: Omemgee 3-1, R3: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R3: Driver's Ed 10-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more

CLASS DROP0/4 board here

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Trending the wrong way on speed, 78 to 70 to 69.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD Edgar Payeras from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LRC	5½f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/8 -6L	69	6.4-1	b L	Swung 8wd; willingly
8/6	DMR	1m D	Clm 12k n2l	6th/9 -7½L	70	37-1	b L	Ins;3-5wide;no threat
7/19	LA	4.54545f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/6 -8L	78	12-1	b L	Trailed; improved ins

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $3,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$9,500

Post

9:33 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#5 · 26%

Claiming $3,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 49.2

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Omemgee (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 62 · 58 · 61. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Crypto Crush at 6-1. Use #6 Fairlawns Way in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 OMEMGEE (3-1) — our number agrees.
#5 OMEMGEE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 19.7%).
#6 FAIRLAWNS WAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 17.5%).
#8 CRYPTO CRUSH — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.2%, they've got 11.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#8 CRYPTO CRUSH — we make it 14.2%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 We Salute You; pressure from #5 Omemgee, #6 Fairlawns Way; and works against #1 Andramada, #3 Goddessofthemoon, #4 Inorbit.

Lead

7We Salute You915Omemgee876Fairlawns Way861Andramada4Inorbit

Press

2Jager Angel848Crypto Crush78

Stalk

none

No style yet

3Goddessofthemoon85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

We Salute You

Omemgee

Fairlawns Way

Jager Angel

Crypto Crush

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

We Salute You

Goddessofthemoon

Crypto Crush

Jager Angel

Omemgee

Fairlawns Way

Andramada

Inorbit

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