| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/27 | LA | 4.54545f D | Alw n2ml | 2nd/5 -1½L | 98 | 2.5-1 | b L | Ins;bid 2w;clear 2nd |
| 9/20 | LRC | 5½f D | Clm 12k | 5th/5 -6L | 73 | 1.6-1 | b L | Chased rail; no rally |
| 8/30 | DMR | 5f T | Clm 32k | 6th/11 -8L | 89 | 7.1-1 | b L | Tght erly;bp/tght late |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k c | 6th/6 -10L | 59 | 1.6-1 | L | Chase ins;took up1/4 |
| 9/19 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k | Won/4 | 77 | 1.4-1 | L | Easy lead;handily |
| 9/5 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k n2y | 2nd/6 -2L | 68 | 3.8-1 | L | Came out st;4w;earn 2d |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 3k | Won/9 by 1½ | 73 | 4.2-1 | b L | Bpd st;3w;surged;up |
| 9/6 | LA | 2½f D | Clm 5k | 4th/5 -4L | 58 | 5.1-1 | b L | Mild late rally |
| 8/16 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 3k | 2nd/7 by hd | 71 | 1.3-1 | b L | 2w;floated 1/8;game |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/11 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 5k | 7th/7 -6¼L | 58 | 18-1 | b L | Stalked ins;no threat |
| 8/31 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 4k n2y | 3rd/7 -1L | 67 | 1.3-1 | b L | Vie 3w;7p;game try |
| 8/10 | LA | 4½f D | Clm 3k n2y | Won/7 by 1½ | 73 | 2.0-1 | b L | Ins;bid 2w;drew clear |
1Smarty Nose▲▼M. Americano · S. RiveraAmericano · RiveraC66 76 81▼▼-11@trip 8115-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -1166 76 81@trip 81C▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 81
▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sally P Rivera 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEBeaten 10 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at SA. Cuts back from a mile to 4½ furlongs.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d backRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 1m D Clm 5k 6th/7 -10L 66 48-1 b L Forced out/steady1st 9/19 LRC 5f D Clm 6k 3rd/8 -8½L 76 36-1 b L 2w-ins-3w;gained 3rd 7/25 LA 4.54545f D Clm 8k n1y 4th/5 -7¾L 81 20-1 b L Pinch bck st;late run 2Elegant Life▲A. Castellanos · H. RubinCastellanos · RubinC82 61 60▲▲+17↕@trip 8230-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best82 61 60 ↕@trip 82C▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 77Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 61 60
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 77Jockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Howard I Rubin 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Pine Run 6-1, R2: Inorbit 8-1, R4: Autism Bona Fide 20-1 · Trainer R7: Rosies Hope 15-13/6 board hereClass relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today. Has run 82 against a 77 par for the class.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d backRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 10th/10 -9¼L 82 68-1 L Reluctant;ins;no bid 10/10 LA 4½f D Clm 3k 6th/9 -5L 61 30-1 L Chased 3p; weakened 5/17 SA 6f T Clm 25k n1y 8th/9 -10L 60 61-1 L Threw head st;3wd-ins 3Sir NanoF. Orduna-Rojas · J. NunezOrduna-Rojas · NunezB67 56 89▼-4↕@trip 898-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -467 56 89 ↕@trip 89BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 56 89
Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, R2: Andramada 4-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1, R5: Big Coin 15-1 · Trainer R7: Verssace 9-5WON LAST4/7 board hereWon last out in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at LA. An 89 in its last five clears the 77 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 224 days agoRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 3 here: 5 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l Won/5 by 1¼ 67 19-1 b L 2w;split 1/8;got up 8/15 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n3l 5th/5 -8½L 56 8.3-1 b L Off slow;no threat 4p 7/12 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2ml 5th/5 -7¾L 89 22-1 b L Trailed; no threat 4p 4VoucherH. Lopez · A. AquinoLopez · AquinoA73 58 71▲▲+8@trip 926-1Fair 8-112%
▲▲ Big jump +873 58 71@trip 92A3Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 58 71
Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career ★ 8-for-28 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hotCLASS DROPWON LAST6/11 board here4 wins from 11 starts at this distance. Moves up from $3,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 175d back)RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts hereRECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 4 here: 27 wins, 69 top-3 in 149 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LA 4½f D Clm 3k Won/9 by 1½ 73 4.2-1 b L Bpd st;3w;surged;up 9/6 LA 2½f D Clm 5k 4th/5 -4L 58 5.1-1 b L Mild late rally 8/16 LA 4½f D Clm 3k 2nd/7 by hd 71 1.3-1 b L 2w;floated 1/8;game 5Lord DunmoreA. Bautista · A. FariasBautista · FariasB66 60 68▲+3≡@trip 9110-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +366 60 68 ≡@trip 91BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 60–68 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 60 68
Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Adan Farias 30% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 29Also today · Jockey R2: We Salute You 5-1, R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1 · Trainer R7: Cowboy Legacy 123 3-16/10 board hereWas 5th of 6 at the first call last time. 3rd of 17 at 4F on Mar 15, in :48.00.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 230d back)RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 5 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 26 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LA 4½f D Clm 5k 4th/6 -3½L 66 25-1 b L Trbl st;ins;swerv uppr 9/6 LA 2½f D Clm 5k 3rd/5 -3L 60 13-1 b L In rang for 2nd;missd 8/9 LA 2½f D Clm 5k 2nd/6 -2L 68 6.9-1 b L Away well;drftd;last2d 6Drop the BitA. Aguilar · J. FariasAguilar · FariasB59 77 68▼▼-12@trip 814-1Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -1259 77 68@trip 81B2Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 77 68
Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R5: Blame It On Abby 10-1 · Trainer R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1★ FASTEST WORK7/13 board hereChanges barns, from Angela M Aquino to Jorge Farias. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on May 12, in :46.60.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)TROUBLED TRIP Chase ins; took up1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 158d back)RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 13 starts hereRECORD Armando Aguilar from post 6 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 20 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LA 4½f D Clm 5k c 6th/6 -10L 59 1.6-1 L Chase ins;took up1/4 9/19 LA 4½f D Clm 5k Won/4 77 1.4-1 L Easy lead;handily 9/5 LA 4½f D Clm 5k n2y 2nd/6 -2L 68 3.8-1 L Came out st;4w;earn 2d 7Not My RodeoS. Vargas · J. UrangaVargas · UrangaA69 96 89▼▼-21↕@trip 966-1Fair 8-111%
▼▼ Big drop -2169 96 89 ↕@trip 96ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 96 89
Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)Also today · Jockey R1: Sark 20-1, R2: Omemgee 3-1, R5: Jewelofakid 10-1 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, this race: Driver's Ed 10-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKFreshened 175 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Figure of 96 on the record sits above the 77 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; shuffld1/4; 3w; mild. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 18 (4F in :47.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 7 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 15 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/9 LA 4½f D Clm 5k 5th/7 -¾L 69 4.3-1 L Ins;shuffld1/4;3w;mild 4/4 LA 4.54545f D Clm 6k n3l Won/7 96 22-1 L Vie 3w;shook clr;best 3/1 LA 4.54545f D Clm 6k n2l Won/6 89 1.5-1 L Ins;cleared;measured 8Driver's EdLSE. Payeras · J. UrangaPayeras · UrangaC58 67 73▼▼-10@trip 7310-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -1058 67 73@trip 73CLSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 67 73
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Bet The Om 5-2, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R4: Tight Dally 4-5, R5: Stardialed 6-1 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, this race: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK4/8 board hereTrending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 67 to 58. Back after 112 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Edgar Payeras from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/11 LA 4½f D Clm 5k 7th/7 -6¼L 58 18-1 b L Stalked ins;no threat 8/31 LA 4½f D Clm 4k n2y 3rd/7 -1L 67 1.3-1 b L Vie 3w;7p;game try 8/10 LA 4½f D Clm 3k n2y Won/7 by 1½ 73 2.0-1 b L Ins;bid 2w;drew clear 9Daniel's Magic▲★F. Monroy · C. DollaseMonroy · DollaseA98 73 89▲▲+15↕@trip 1017-5Fair 2-134%
▲▲ Big jump +1598 73 89 ↕@trip 101A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 1011Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–98 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 73 89
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 101Jockey Francisco Monroy 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Craig Dollase 29% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKTops the field on speed figures, a 101 against 96 for the next best. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Oct 26 (:37.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Oct 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2ml 2nd/5 -1½L 98 2.5-1 b L Ins;bid 2w;clear 2nd 9/20 LRC 5½f D Clm 12k 5th/5 -6L 73 1.6-1 b L Chased rail; no rally 8/30 DMR 5f T Clm 32k 6th/11 -8L 89 7.1-1 b L Tght erly;bp/tght late
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 3
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 49.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #9 Daniel's Magic (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 98 · 73 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Drop The Bit at 4-1. Use #4 Voucher in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 DANIEL'S MAGIC (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #9 DANIEL'S MAGIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.8% to their 32.3%).
- #6 DROP THE BIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.7% to their 15.5%).
- #4 VOUCHER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.5% to their 11.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Drop The Bit; pressure from #5 Lord Dunmore, #7 Not My Rodeo; the shape helps #2 Elegant Life, #3 Sir Nano, #4 Voucher; and works against #5 Lord Dunmore, #6 Drop The Bit.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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