Pick sheet
Race 39:59 PM Clm 5000
4.5F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Daniel's Magic, is 34% to win (morning line implies 32%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
Top pick #9 Daniel's Magic ML 7-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +15 ★ Best at 4½f dirt: 101 ↕ Up and down 73–98 ▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 77
Jockey F. Monroy · Trainer C. Dollase · KEE 3: 1-2-0 · Dist 3: 1-2-0 · best fig at 4½f dirt 101 · 34 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/27LA4.54545f DAlw n2ml2nd/5 -1½L982.5-1b LIns;bid 2w;clear 2nd
9/20LRC5½f DClm 12k5th/5 -6L731.6-1b LChased rail; no rally
8/30DMR5f TClm 32k6th/11 -8L897.1-1b LTght erly;bp/tght late
Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw14000n2ml at LA. Last Brisnet figures 98-73-89. Best at today's distance 101. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Los Alamitos. C. Dollase / F. Monroy.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Contender #6 Drop the Bit ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -12
Jockey A. Aguilar · Trainer J. Farias · KEE 13: 4-1-2 · Dist 13: 4-1-2 · best fig at 4½f dirt 81 · 21 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/10LA4½f DClm 5k c6th/6 -10L591.6-1LChase ins;took up1/4
9/19LA4½f DClm 5kWon/4771.4-1LEasy lead;handily
9/5LA4½f DClm 5k n2y2nd/6 -2L683.8-1LCame out st;4w;earn 2d
Case: Last out 6th/6 -10L in the Clm5000c at LA. Last Brisnet figures 59-77-68. Best at today's distance 81. 4-for-13 at the distance. 4-for-13 at Los Alamitos. J. Farias / A. Aguilar.
Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Use #4 Voucher ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 Last out won in the Clm3500 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 73-58-71. Best at today's distance 92. 4-for-11 at the distance. 4-for-11 at Los Alamitos. A. Aquino / H. Lopez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Jockey H. Lopez · Trainer A. Aquino · KEE 11: 4-1-1 · Dist 11: 4-1-1 · best fig at 4½f dirt 92 · 21 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/10LA4½f DClm 3kWon/9 by 1½734.2-1b LBpd st;3w;surged;up
9/6LA2½f DClm 5k4th/5 -4L585.1-1b LMild late rally
8/16LA4½f DClm 3k2nd/7 by hd711.3-1b L2w;floated 1/8;game
Longshot #8 Driver's Ed ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -10
Jockey E. Payeras · Trainer J. Uranga · KEE 8: 2-0-2 · Dist 8: 2-0-2 · best fig at 4½f dirt 73 · 112 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
7/11LA4½f DClm 5k7th/7 -6¼L5818-1b LStalked ins;no threat
8/31LA4½f DClm 4k n2y3rd/7 -1L671.3-1b LVie 3w;7p;game try
8/10LA4½f DClm 3k n2yWon/7 by 1½732.0-1b LIns;bid 2w;drew clear
Case: Last out 7th/7 -6¼L in the Clm5000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 58-67-73. Best at today's distance 73. 2-for-8 at the distance. 2-for-8 at Los Alamitos. J. Uranga / E. Payeras.
Knock: Off 112 days.
Narrowing the field: A #4, #7, #9 · B #3, #5, #6 · C #1, #2, #8
Angles: #1 Rider upgrade (28% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint · #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #2 Last fig 82 at/above par 77 · #9 Last fig 98 at/above par 77

R3 Los Alamitos · Claiming $5,000

9:59 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $12,000 · 9 runners9:59 PM · 4½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Smarty Nose▲▼M. Americano · S. RiveraAmericano · RiveraC66 76 81▼▼-11@trip 8115-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1166 76 81@trip 81C▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 81

    ▲ Rider upgrade (28% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprint▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sally P Rivera 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Naudesnoodle 20-1, R5: Coiffeur 12-1 · Trainer R1: Warmhearted 10-1
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

    Beaten 10 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at SA. Cuts back from a mile to 4½ furlongs.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/12SA1m DClm 5k6th/7 -10L6648-1b LForced out/steady1st
    9/19LRC5f DClm 6k3rd/8 -8½L7636-1b L2w-ins-3w;gained 3rd
    7/25LA4.54545f DClm 8k n1y4th/5 -7¾L8120-1b LPinch bck st;late run
  2. 2Elegant Life▲A. Castellanos · H. RubinCastellanos · RubinC82 61 60▲▲+17↕@trip 8230-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best82 61 60 ↕@trip 82C▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 77

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 61 60

    ▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 77
    Jockey Adrian Castellanos 33% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Howard I Rubin 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Pine Run 6-1, R2: Inorbit 8-1, R4: Autism Bona Fide 20-1 · Trainer R7: Rosies Hope 15-1
    3/6 board here

    Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today. Has run 82 against a 77 par for the class.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18LA4.54545f DAlw n3l10th/10 -9¼L8268-1LReluctant;ins;no bid
    10/10LA4½f DClm 3k6th/9 -5L6130-1LChased 3p; weakened
    5/17SA6f TClm 25k n1y8th/9 -10L6061-1LThrew head st;3wd-ins
  3. 3Sir NanoF. Orduna-Rojas · J. NunezOrduna-Rojas · NunezB67 56 89▼-4↕@trip 898-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -467 56 89 ↕@trip 89B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 56 89

    Jockey Francisco Orduna-Rojas 24% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Draw Nigh 10-1, R2: Andramada 4-1, R4: Wicklow Way 8-1, R5: Big Coin 15-1 · Trainer R7: Verssace 9-5
    WON LAST4/7 board here

    Won last out in a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at LA. An 89 in its last five clears the 77 par for this level.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 224 days ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
    RECORD Francisco Orduna-Rojas from post 3 here: 5 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12LA4½f DClm 5k n3lWon/5 by 1¼6719-1b L2w;split 1/8;got up
    8/15LA4½f DClm 5k n3l5th/5 -8½L568.3-1b LOff slow;no threat 4p
    7/12LA4.54545f DAlw n2ml5th/5 -7¾L8922-1b LTrailed; no threat 4p
  4. 4VoucherH. Lopez · A. AquinoLopez · AquinoA73 58 71▲▲+8@trip 926-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +873 58 71@trip 92A3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 58 71

    Jockey Henry Reynoso Lopez 36% career ★ 10-for-35 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career ★ 8-for-28 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R4: The Dude Abides 30-1, R8: Emperador D 15-1
    CLASS DROPWON LAST6/11 board here

    4 wins from 11 starts at this distance. Moves up from $3,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 175d back)
    RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here
    RECORD Henry Reynoso Lopez from post 4 here: 27 wins, 69 top-3 in 149 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LA4½f DClm 3kWon/9 by 1½734.2-1b LBpd st;3w;surged;up
    9/6LA2½f DClm 5k4th/5 -4L585.1-1b LMild late rally
    8/16LA4½f DClm 3k2nd/7 by hd711.3-1b L2w;floated 1/8;game
  5. 5Lord DunmoreA. Bautista · A. FariasBautista · FariasB66 60 68▲+3≡@trip 9110-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +366 60 68 ≡@trip 91B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 60–68 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 60 68

    Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Adan Farias 30% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 29
    Also today · Jockey R2: We Salute You 5-1, R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1 · Trainer R7: Cowboy Legacy 123 3-1
    6/10 board here

    Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time. 3rd of 17 at 4F on Mar 15, in :48.00.

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 230d back)
    RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Alfredo L Bautista from post 5 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 26 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LA4½f DClm 5k4th/6 -3½L6625-1b LTrbl st;ins;swerv uppr
    9/6LA2½f DClm 5k3rd/5 -3L6013-1b LIn rang for 2nd;missd
    8/9LA2½f DClm 5k2nd/6 -2L686.9-1b LAway well;drftd;last2d
  6. 6Drop the BitA. Aguilar · J. FariasAguilar · FariasB59 77 68▼▼-12@trip 814-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1259 77 68@trip 81B2

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 77 68

    Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Blame It On Abby 10-1 · Trainer R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK7/13 board here

    Changes barns, from Angela M Aquino to Jorge Farias. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on May 12, in :46.60.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)
    TROUBLED TRIP Chase ins; took up1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 158d back)
    RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 13 starts here
    RECORD Armando Aguilar from post 6 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 20 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LA4½f DClm 5k c6th/6 -10L591.6-1LChase ins;took up1/4
    9/19LA4½f DClm 5kWon/4771.4-1LEasy lead;handily
    9/5LA4½f DClm 5k n2y2nd/6 -2L683.8-1LCame out st;4w;earn 2d
  7. 7Not My RodeoS. Vargas · J. UrangaVargas · UrangaA69 96 89▼▼-21↕@trip 966-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -2169 96 89 ↕@trip 96A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 96 89

    Jockey Salvador R Vargas 29% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sark 20-1, R2: Omemgee 3-1, R5: Jewelofakid 10-1 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, this race: Driver's Ed 10-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    Freshened 175 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Figure of 96 on the record sits above the 77 par.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; shuffld1/4; 3w; mild. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 18 (4F in :47.80), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Salvador R Vargas from post 7 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 15 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/9LA4½f DClm 5k5th/7 -¾L694.3-1LIns;shuffld1/4;3w;mild
    4/4LA4.54545f DClm 6k n3lWon/79622-1LVie 3w;shook clr;best
    3/1LA4.54545f DClm 6k n2lWon/6891.5-1LIns;cleared;measured
  8. 8Driver's EdLSE. Payeras · J. UrangaPayeras · UrangaC58 67 73▼▼-10@trip 7310-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1058 67 73@trip 73CLS

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 67 73

    LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Edgar Payeras 35% career ★ 12-for-29 on dirt this meet (41%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Jesus J Uranga 32% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Bet The Om 5-2, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, R4: Tight Dally 4-5, R5: Stardialed 6-1 · Trainer R2: Omemgee 3-1, R2: Crypto Crush 6-1, this race: Not My Rodeo 6-1, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2 +1 more
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK4/8 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 67 to 58. Back after 112 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here
    RECORD Edgar Payeras from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/11LA4½f DClm 5k7th/7 -6¼L5818-1b LStalked ins;no threat
    8/31LA4½f DClm 4k n2y3rd/7 -1L671.3-1b LVie 3w;7p;game try
    8/10LA4½f DClm 3k n2yWon/7 by 1½732.0-1b LIns;bid 2w;drew clear
  9. 9Daniel's Magic▲★F. Monroy · C. DollaseMonroy · DollaseA98 73 89▲▲+15↕@trip 1017-5Fair 2-134%▲▲ Big jump +1598 73 89 ↕@trip 101A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 1011

    Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–98 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 73 89

    ▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 77★ Best at the trip 101
    Jockey Francisco Monroy 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Craig Dollase 29% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Swift Stephan 2-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 101 against 96 for the next best. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Oct 26 (:37.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Oct 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/27LA4.54545f DAlw n2ml2nd/5 -1½L982.5-1b LIns;bid 2w;clear 2nd
    9/20LRC5½f DClm 12k5th/5 -6L731.6-1b LChased rail; no rally
    8/30DMR5f TClm 32k6th/11 -8L897.1-1b LTght erly;bp/tght late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼FINISHSTART4 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$12,000
Post
9:59 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#9 · 34%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 49.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Daniel's Magic (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 98 · 73 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Drop The Bit at 4-1. Use #4 Voucher in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #9 DANIEL'S MAGIC (7-5) — our number agrees.
  • #9 DANIEL'S MAGIC — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.8% to their 32.3%).
  • #6 DROP THE BIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.7% to their 15.5%).
  • #4 VOUCHER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.5% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Drop The Bit; pressure from #5 Lord Dunmore, #7 Not My Rodeo; the shape helps #2 Elegant Life, #3 Sir Nano, #4 Voucher; and works against #5 Lord Dunmore, #6 Drop The Bit.

Lead
6Drop The Bit875Lord Dunmore83
Press
7Not My Rodeo954Voucher908Driver's Ed902Elegant Life
Stalk
3Sir Nano859Daniel's Magic
Close
1Smarty Nose70

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

7
Not My Rodeo
95
4
Voucher
90
8
Driver's Ed
90
6
Drop The Bit
87
3
Sir Nano
85
5
Lord Dunmore
83

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Smarty Nose
15
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