PARX RACING · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$60,000

Post

2:01 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#5 · 22%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.51

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 All Cylinders (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 50. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Butter Man at 15-1. Use #1 Joseph Potato in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

5All Cylinders

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Ride Jordan Ride 3-1, R3: Vance Scholars 2-1, R5: Randi's Girl 9-2, R6: Jeremiahtwentynine 7-2 +3 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last out was 8th, 21 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 5 here: 22 wins, 70 top-3 in 118 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

M/L4-1

Model22%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 38d

22ND

6Butter Man

Jockey Luis M Ocasio 26% career 5-for-65 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Alan Bedard 18% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Will's Music 10-1, R2: Peterman 6-1, R6: Imperial Ruler 9-2

CLASS DROP

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Maiden through 7 starts.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 32d ago

RECORD Luis M Ocasio from post 6 here: 13 wins, 54 top-3 in 142 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 18d

33RD

1Joseph Potato

Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez 33% career 6-for-48 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi

Also today · Trainer this race: Ragatony 9-5, R5: R J's Girl 7-2

8th last time, 23 lengths back, in a field of 8. Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 81d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Silvestre Gonzalez from post 1 here: 27 wins, 94 top-3 in 181 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last8th · 23d

44TH

3Ragatony

Jockey Andrew Wolfsont 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi

Also today · Trainer this race: Joseph Potato 6-1, R5: R J's Girl 7-2

5/6 board here

Has moved up each time out, 67 to 72 to 74. Tops the field on speed figures, a 74 against 71 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 32d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Andrew Wolfsont from post 3 here: 10 wins, 35 top-3 in 97 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

M/L9-5

Model25%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last2nd · 23d

55TH

2Sam's Glory

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Robert Mosco 31% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Psalmist 6-5, R6: Splitting Stones 8-1, R7: Hey Porter 5-1

Jky 36/183 from post 2

Best recent figure is 71, well under the 80 par for this level. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 46d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 2 here: 36 wins, 103 top-3 in 183 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last4th · 23d

4Winfred

Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Louis Jr Linder 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ad Majora 4-1, R5: R J's Girl 7-2, R6: Petey Motto 5-1

Raises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Louis Jr Linder takes over the training from Lynn Ashby.

EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 32d back

RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 4 here: 29 wins, 88 top-3 in 186 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 19d

At a glance

Market favourite #3 RAGATONY (9-5) — our number has it ranked #4.
#3 RAGATONY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (27.6% to their 29.4%).
#2 SAM'S GLORY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 23.5%).
#5 ALL CYLINDERS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.2% to their 16.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 BUTTER MAN (15-1) — our fair 6.7% is above the morning line's 5.1%; supported by: lone early speed — controls the pace uncontested

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #6 Butter Man.

Lead

none

Press

6Butter Man79

Stalk

1Joseph Potato90

3Ragatony762Sam's Glory68

No style yet

4Winfred785All Cylinders71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Joseph Potato

Butter Man

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sam's Glory

Ragatony

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 4 -7) / EXACTA

50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

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