PARX RACING · RACE 3
UPCOMINGClaiming $7,500
Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.51
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Ahsad (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 70 · 80 · 78. Backup is #2 Prince Colton at 3-1. Use #3 Alejandro in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
A big drop, optional claiming to $7,500 claiming, and worth asking why. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.
Figures have slipped: 71, 62, 53 over its last three. Finished 7th in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX, beaten 22 lengths.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 82 next best. Last out was 7th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse $7,500 claiming race at PRX.
Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance. Tops the field on speed figures, an 83 against 82 for the next best.
2nd of 8 at 5F on Jul 8, in 1:02.20. 8th last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 VANCE SCHOLARS (2-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #6 VANCE SCHOLARS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 26.7%).
- #2 PRINCE COLTON — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 20.0%).
- #5 AHSAD — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.5%, they've got 17.8%.
Model vs the morning line
- #5 AHSAD — we make it 20.5%, the morning line works out to 17.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Prince Colton; pressure from #6 Vance Scholars, #4 Ardanwood; the shape helps #1 Walk Away Joe, #4 Ardanwood, #5 Ahsad; and works against #2 Prince Colton.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE/ PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta