PARX RACING · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $10,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

3:22 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#4 · 26%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 98.7

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Youbetterbejoking (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 85 · 86. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Hey Porter at 5-1. Use #6 Bob John Ray in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Youbetterbejoking

Jockey Ruben Silvera 32% career ★ 14-for-53 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 32 · Trainer Esteban Padilla 32% career ★ 5-for-15 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 51

Also today · Jockey R8: Na Pali Joe 6-1, R9: Liberty Star 4-1 · Trainer R8: Na Pali Joe 6-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST8/10 board here

Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX. Figures have slipped: 86, 85, 77 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 29d back

RECORD 6 wins, 8 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Ruben Silvera from post 4 here: 27 wins, 90 top-3 in 153 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model26%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last1st · 21d

22ND

5Hey Porter

Jockey Francisco Martinez 33% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Martinez Elliott Soto- 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Psalmist 6-5, R4: Sam's Glory 5-2, R6: Splitting Stones 8-1

6/11 board here

Best recent figure of 86 sits right around the 85 par. Last out was 3rd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled badly start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 46 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Francisco Martinez from post 5 here: 23 wins, 88 top-3 in 191 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 21d

33RD

6Bob John Ray

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Richard Vega 27% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Trainer R3: Prince Colton 3-1, R6: Corn King 5-1

CLASS UP

4 wins from 8 starts at this distance. Class relief: $12,500 claiming last time, optional claiming today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 70d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L4-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 16d

44TH

7Amedeus Music

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Wayne Potts 30% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Ride Jordan Ride 3-1, R3: Vance Scholars 2-1, R4: All Cylinders 4-1, R5: Randi's Girl 9-2 +3 more · Trainer R3: Vance Scholars 2-1

CLASS DROP

Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 88 for the next best. Gets a new rider, Pascacio Lopez replacing Ajhari Williams.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 7 here: 29 wins, 59 top-3 in 112 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 12% here vs 14% for all horses (1,513 starts)

M/L3-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 19d

55TH

3Nixon Joy

Jockey Joezer Rangel 25% career 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Alexis Romero 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R1: Ad Majora 4-1

CLASS UP

Beaten 10 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at PRX. New trainer: Jose M Santaella-Calderon had it last time, Alexis Romero now.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 27d back

RECORD 4 wins, 8 on the board from 19 starts here

RECORD Joezer Rangel from post 3 here: 3 wins, 21 top-3 in 53 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last4th · 7d

1Hermoso Hombre

Jockey Sebastian Orellana 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Stephen Hamilton 16% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Diamond Glory 10-1

6/9 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 83 to 68. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Mar 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 21d

2Martini Martin

Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-75 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jorge Diaz 26% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tiz The Coast 5-1, R3: Prince Colton 3-1, R5: Here She Goes 8-1, R6: Corn King 5-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Albali 12-1

Jky 46/243 from post 2

Jorge Diaz takes over the training from Jose S Rodriguez. Moves up from $7,500 claiming to optional claiming.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Fanned 10w; late gain last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 29d ago

RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 2 here: 46 wins, 119 top-3 in 243 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 11d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 YOUBETTERBEJOKING (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 YOUBETTERBEJOKING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 25.3%).
#7 AMEDEUS MUSIC — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 19.0%).
#6 BOB JOHN RAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 15.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Amedeus Music; pressure from #6 Bob John Ray, #4 Youbetterbejoking; the shape helps #1 Hermoso Hombre, #4 Youbetterbejoking, #6 Bob John Ray; and works against #7 Amedeus Music.

Lead

7Amedeus Music78

Press

6Bob John Ray844Youbetterbejoking69

Stalk

1Hermoso Hombre57

2Martini Martin723Nixon Joy615Hey Porter58

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Bob John Ray

Amedeus Music

Youbetterbejoking

Hermoso Hombre

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Martini Martin

Hey Porter

Nixon Joy

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA /10 CENT SUPERFECTA

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