R5 Parx Racing · Maiden Claiming $25,000

2:28 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 8 runners2:28 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $26K · Maiden Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Princess Eliana▼M. Fernandez · J. VazquezFernandez · VazquezA48 58 60▼▼-12@trip 486-1Fair 6-113%▼▼ Big drop -1248 58 60@trip 48A▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 693

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 48 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 58 60

▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 69

Jockey Marvin Fernandez 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Juan Vazquez 30% career

Class relief: maiden claiming $50,000 last time, maiden claiming $25,000 today. Tops the field on speed figures, a 63 against 58 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 88 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DEL	6f D	MCL 50k	8th/8 -8½L	48	18-1	b	Chase 2p; not threaten
9/24	DEL	1m D	MSW	4th/9 -6½L	58	117-1	b	Stumble brk;5p;mild ga
9/6	CNL	1m T	Moc50000	6th/11 -3¾L	60	34-1	b	Press2p;took over;fade

2Here She Goes▼D. Haddock · J. SolisHaddock · SolisB348-1Fair 10-18%—34B▼ Best fig 34 is 5+ under today's par 69
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 34
▼ Best fig 34 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 8-for-78 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jacinto Solis 32% career 1-for-36 on dirt this meet (3%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Tiz The Coast 5-1, R3: Prince Colton 3-1, R6: Corn King 5-1, R7: Martini Martin 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Psalmist 6-5, R6: Imperial Ruler 9-2
Jky 46/243 from post 2
Beaten 11 lengths for 8th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at PRX. Best recent figure is 34, well under the 69 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 21d ago
RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 2 here: 46 wins, 119 top-3 in 243 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40k 8th/8 -11L 34 19-1 Wide; stopped
3R J's Girl▼E. Ruiz · K. Crook-DemasiRuiz · Crook-DemasiA527-2Fair 9-218%—52A▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 692
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Eliseo Ruiz 31% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Kathlee Crook-Demasi
Also today · Jockey R1: Ad Majora 4-1, R4: Winfred 5-1, R6: Petey Motto 5-1 · Trainer R4: Joseph Potato 6-1, R4: Ragatony 9-5
Finished 3rd in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at PRX, beaten 15 lengths. A 52 is the high figure lately, short of the 69 par.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)
RECORD Eliseo Ruiz from post 3 here: 32 wins, 90 top-3 in 188 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 PRX 5½f D MCL 25k 3rd/9 -15L 52 9.7-1 Rail trip; gained show
4SorrengailJ. Aguilar · H. PadillaAguilar · Padilla?6-1Fair 8-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Jean Aguilar 30% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Hugo O Padilla 32% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%)
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Lookin At Lucky out of Gwendolyn. First-time starter from a barn that wins 5% of the time with them (38 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 18d ago
RECORD Jean Aguilar from post 4 here: 13 wins, 44 top-3 in 113 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Lookin at Lucky out of Gwendolyn (Lion Hearted)
Trainer H. Padilla: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 37% in the money (38 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 35% in the money (104 starts)
Jockey J. Aguilar in sprints: 21 wins from 159 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/10 PRX 4f :49.00 breezing 32/85
9/30 PRX 5f 1:02.80 breezing 27/30 from gate
9/16 PRX 4f :50.00 breezing 19/28
9/5 PRX 4f :49.60 breezing 50/74
5Albali▼LSB. Torres · J. DiazTorres · DiazC31 53 26▼▼-16↕@trip 3112-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1631 53 26 ↕@trip 31C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 69LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–63 · Best fig at today's trip 31 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 31 53 26
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 69LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Bryan L Torres 32% career 4-for-30 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jorge Diaz 26% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)
Also today · Trainer R7: Martini Martin 8-1
Changes barns, from Jorge Delgado to Jorge Diaz. Tops the field on speed figures, a 63 against 58 for the next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago
RECORD Bryan L Torres from post 5 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 40 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 MTH 6f D MCL 25k 7th/7 -11L 31 7.6-1 b Stalked 2w; faded
8/16 MTH 1m T MSW 5th/7 -4L 53 16-1 b Vied inside; tired
8/8 MTH 5½f D MSW 9th/9 -18L 26 16-1 Bumped start; steadied
6Randi's Girl▼P. Lopez · D. DoughertyLopez · DoughertyB469-2Fair 8-111%—46B▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 46
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career ★ 13-for-62 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Devon Dougherty 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Ride Jordan Ride 3-1, R3: Vance Scholars 2-1, R4: All Cylinders 4-1, R6: Jeremiahtwentynine 7-2 +3 more · Trainer R2: Ride Jordan Ride 3-1
60D LAYOFF
Returns from a 109-day break, the biggest in the field. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $25,000 is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago
RECORD Pascacio Lopez from post 6 here: 35 wins, 97 top-3 in 163 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/11 SAR 5½f D fsMdSpWt 10th/10 -11L 46 18-1 Bmp brk;3-6p;lost crop

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40k	8th/8 -11L	34	19-1		Wide; stopped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PRX	5½f D	MCL 25k	3rd/9 -15L	52	9.7-1		Rail trip; gained show

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/10	PRX	4f	:49.00	breezing	32/85
9/30	PRX	5f	1:02.80	breezing	27/30	from gate
9/16	PRX	4f	:50.00	breezing	19/28
9/5	PRX	4f	:49.60	breezing	50/74

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	MTH	6f D	MCL 25k	7th/7 -11L	31	7.6-1	b	Stalked 2w; faded
8/16	MTH	1m T	MSW	5th/7 -4L	53	16-1	b	Vied inside; tired
8/8	MTH	5½f D	MSW	9th/9 -18L	26	16-1		Bumped start; steadied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/11	SAR	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	10th/10 -11L	46	18-1		Bmp brk;3-6p;lost crop

7Miss Novie▼L. Hoskins · R. Reid Jr.Hoskins · Reid Jr.A58 46 47▲▲+143-1Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best58 46 47A▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 691

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 58 46 47

▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 69

Jockey Luke Hoskins 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert E Jr Reid 28% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Sweet Interlude 6-1

2/4 board here

Sheds 7 pounds from its last start. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 69 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/7	PRX	5½f D	MCL 25k	2nd/9 -9L	58	13-1	Pursued winner all way
9/15	PRX	5½f D	MCL 25k	2nd/5 -3L	46	15-1	Vied outside; 2nd best
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	5th/7 -16L	47	12-1	Slow start; rail trip

8Diamond Glory▼S. Orellana · J. Gonzalez-MilianOrellana · Gonzalez-MilianB5210-1Fair 12-18%—52B▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 69
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 69
Jockey Sebastian Orellana 3-for-34 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jose G Gonzalez-Milian 25% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Hermoso Hombre 6-1 · Trainer R1: Centaur Central 10-1, R9: Diamond Heist 9-2
Jose G Gonzalez-Milian takes over the training from Junior W Nicholson. Drops from maiden claiming $40,000 to maiden claiming $25,000.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 PRX 5½f D MCL 40k 7th/8 -7L 52 7.5-1 b Wide turn; lacked bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PRX	5½f D	MCL 40k	7th/8 -7L	52	7.5-1	b	Wide turn; lacked bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #5, #7.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PARX RACING · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $25,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

2:28 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#7 · 23%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.21

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Miss Novie (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 58 · 46 · 47. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 R J's Girl at 7-2. Use #1 Princess Eliana in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 MISS NOVIE (3-1) — our number agrees.
#7 MISS NOVIE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 20.5%).
#3 R J'S GIRL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 18.2%).
#6 RANDI'S GIRL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 14.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Princess Eliana; pressure from #5 Albali, #7 Miss Novie; the shape helps #3 R J's Girl; and works against #1 Princess Eliana, #2 Here She Goes, #4 Sorrengail.

Lead

1Princess Eliana925Albali927Miss Novie87

Press

none

Stalk

none

3R J's Girl74

No style yet

6Randi's Girl848Diamond Glory772Here She Goes654Sorrengail

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Princess Eliana

Albali

Miss Novie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

R J's Girl

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Bet types

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